[Wages of Wins] Does Houston Really have that Big of a Problem?

And wouldn't getting swept out of the first round be fantastic! I mean, just think of all the nice things the national media would say about our scrappy little team, with all their heart and never say quit attitude.

Screw that, given a choice between a top five pick and getting bounced out of the first round, I'll take the high draft pick every single time, and anyone who references the Clippers just doesn't get it. We have Morey, they don't.

 

amen. I'd rather get a Hakeem Olajuwon than a first round sweep.

 

what a shame morey is on the trade bandwagon

 

I'll take something he say seriously after he takes back his "statistical analysis" that said that David Robinson was better than The Dream

 

When was the last time a very dominant big man was drafted?

Dwight Howard 2004?

If we are around 5th-4th seed come all star break I believe Morey will trade (not involving McGrady assuming that he is playing well) for another superstar to go for a playoff push.

I doubt Morey is one of the "I won't try so I can get a high draft pick" type.

 

You know I have problems with stats like this. the team played better with brooks starting, yet he was a minus? Barry was above average?Right.

 

All of this is so premature anyway. This isn't even the final roster.

 

I think you misunderstood me. It's not a matter of conditioning or anything like that. The problem is this. Lets say there are two teammates, and they average a total of 12 shots per game. One of them (lets call him Battier) averages 1/2, or 50%, and the other (lets call him Artest) averages 4/10, or 40%. The Wages of Wins people will call Battier more efficient, and will imply, if not state outright, that Battier does more to help his team win (in terms of scoring/offense).

But think about what would happen if you replaced Artest with a clone of Battier, so that you have two Battiers splitting up those 12 shots. Since Battier's 2 shots/game were ostensibly his highest-percentage opportunities, and now each Battier clone has to take 4 extra shots, shouldn't their shooting percentage decrease from 50%?

Conversely, what would happen if you replaced Battier with an Artest clone, so that you have two Artests splitting up those 12 shots. Shouldn't their shooting percentage increase from 40% because they can now afford to take 4 fewer shots each?

I might not have done a great job explaining that, but do you see what I'm saying?

 

I think that Copusfan has some good points.

The stats used to generate the WP48 #’s from last season are a nice jumping off point, the player stats next season may be similar, but projecting there overall minutes and averages for the next season is much more difficult due to these new variables:

-The style of play next season will be much different, and it will take time to get the new system in place.

-Initially there will be no one go to player on the team that can be relied upon to generate double teams / create open shots for others.

The Rockets, will be fun to watch and will knock off over-hyped teams during the course of the season but we are still missing defensive and offensive components for the team to be a viable playoff contender.

There is more time to pick up the extra pieces we need, and perhaps Dorsey (I don’t expect much from him though) and the new rookies will make the necessary contributions to push us into the playoffs.

 

forget all the numbers, its simple a win is a win and a loss is a loss. all these number geeks putting this crap out is ridiculous. just let them play and be done.

 

Finding enough offense to go with the above average defense seems to be the issue. We don't have a go to guy. The Princeton offense is the opposite of the isolation game (at least for one go to guy) and so should allow all our guys open shots. Time will tell who can knock down the shots they get. It may take time but Adelman will figure out who to have on the floor as needed in time and we should be OK.

Having said that, we are in the West where 50 plus games are a requirement for the playoffs. Couldn't hurt to have T-Mac or someone on the current roster who steps up as the season develops to be the deal sealer in the fourth quarter. Scola can't be under estimated either. He is a force to be reckoned with as his time here and internationally has shown.

Go Rox!

 

Wrong. Morey is on the acquisition of assets bandwagon.

Tell me you'd rather have Artest over Ariza...do it....I dare you...

 

"* Aaron Brooks – who may lead this team in scoring – will be considered one of the best point guards in the game. " -DJ

Look at Aaron Brooks stats for the season. The average of his stats for the regular season, compared to other point guards, was sub par... while Barry was efficient with his role as a limited backup. This is not an indicator of Brooks' projected improvement, i.e. post-season play. Nor an indicator of who IS the better player. Hence the above quote. Notice he doesn't mention Barry for any post season awards.

 

call me silly but i have faith in this team, i feel they thrive being underdogs, no doubt Yao removes a big chunk of the offense and defense but i believe in RA to come up with something. we will not be facing any pressure to win like last season but its gonna be tough, its a good time for likes of AB, Scola, Landry and Lowry to shine now that there are no real stars in this team.

 

He's saying Brooks will be "considered" one of the best point guards, not that he'll actually be one of the best PGs. That's in line with the thesis of his book -- most NBA teams / media overvalue scoring over what he considers to be more important statistical indicators.

And I believe he also said that if Brooks's minutes go up, that will hurt the team. Its clear to me that he isn't an Aaron Brooks fan. Not a big deal, actually, but to suggest that he contributed less to our winning last year than Brent Barry is really strange.

 

Awesome read! The veteran guys we have are no scrubs. The team will have to depend on each other more this season that in seasons past. Also the article doesnt include what the 3 rookies are going to contribute. Chase has a huge chip on his shoulder by being overlooked so he and Taylor would be a great spark for us for the second unit. Can't wait til October!

 

the end product would still be an allstar caliber player. more talent
dun know why you mention Trevor
He cannot be traded until some time and Battier is in front of him in this race

 

I was saying they won't tank and they therefore won't be in the lottery easily.
You can look around the 16th picks downwards where we will be situated realistically.
Artest is long gone don't mention him.
Morey stated several times he is focusing on a trade around the clock and waiting for the right time to pull the trigger.
That was all the trade asset acquisition is for and I hope we will keep brooks, landry and scola but obviously we can't keep 'em all. Hope for a smart move.

 

the lakers swept us and we took them to 7

regular season means nothing

 

Some points I'm not fond of in his breakdown:
1) Points Per 48: Completely worthless stat in a league where no one sniffs that playing time - Iguodala led the league last year with an average of 39.9 mpg and generally only 1 or 2 guys on a team top an average of 36. Also, that stat dismisses the very real reasons why certain guys are limited to 15 or 20 minutes. Some have abhorrent defense. Some are too old or injury prone to handle big minutes. Are guys are going to have extended minutes available to them, but if you're going to flush out the stats, better to tailor it: Starters (points per 36) and reserves (points per 15 or 20)

2) Another reason that you just can't build off of last season's number is that you can't assume that guys will score at the same rate regardless of whom they're playing with. Some guys are tremendous as a second option but miserable as a primary option. Some guys (Shane) feed entirely off of opportunities created by others. Some guys excel once a ball dominator is removed from the equation. We've seen enough evidence over the JVG and Adelman years to know this.

I'd look at the playoff numbers as a starting point. Yao struggled until he bowed out, giving a fair idea of how the roster played without him or Tracy (or Wafer). Ron also was negligible in many contests.

Scola - 32.6 mpg, 14.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg
Battier - 38.2 mpg, 8.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg
Ariza - 31.4 mpg, 11.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg
Brooks - 34.2 mpg, 16.8 ppg, 3.4 apg
Lowry - 19.5 mpg, 5.3 ppg, 2.5 apg
Landry - 18.5 mpg, 7.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg
Hayes - 13.3 mpg, 1.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg

I'll put Anderson down in pencil for 6.5 and 6.5 in 20 mpg.
I'll say either Taylor or Chase cracks the rotation and gives us 8 ppg in 15 mpg.

That's a nucleus projecting 65 ppg. I'll bump that to 80 under the assumption that a few guys can raise their scoring average.

Brooks, Scola, and Landry should all raise their numbers a bit, but I wouldn't get carried away and write any of them down for a 20 ppg average. Brooks wasn't able to string games together, Scola only broke 20 on occasion, and Landry was extremely inconsistent. Ariza could bump his numbers with increased opportunities, but he doesn't excel at creating his own shot like Wafer did.

Unless Morey comes through with a major move for a big scorer, such as Amare, we're staring down a team that isn't going to compete against any good offense out there. Our best hope is a high P&R game with Scola and Brooks.

Evan