This is the best write-up about what to expect I've read (so far). I would move the Spurs down to the Aged Out of Contention group. They will post a great regular season record but have no chance of winning 4 playoff series. I also don't consider the Knicks a legit wild card on par with the Clippers because their roster is so poorly constructed and D'Antoni is not a good coach. CP3 and Billups should help make up for Vinny's deficiencies. http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2011/12/21/breaking-down-the-2011-12-contenders/?sct=nba_t11_a0 Breaking down the 2011-12 contenders Since Britt Robson has you covered with his preseason power rankings, I wanted to take an even bigger step back and see if we might be able to bunch teams into categories ahead of the 2011-12 season. This is an inexact science, and the order of listing between and within groups shouldn’t necessarily be taken as a strict hierarchical ranking. THE THREE SET CONTENDERS Miami Heat Miami will be the favorite as long as LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade are here and healthy, and though the team didn’t do much to address its two positional weaknesses — point guard and center — it is now stacked with versatile wing players, having signed Shane Battier and brought back James Jones. If Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem can stay relatively healthy once Miller returns from a sports hernia, the Heat will be the team to beat. There are questions — and we’ll get to them tomorrow — but it’s hard to craft a reasonable argument for anyone else as the championship favorite. Oklahoma City Thunder The Thunder are healthy, young and deep, and they morphed from a mediocre defensive team into a top-five-level club on that end once they flipped Jeff Green for Kendrick Perkins last season–and that was with Perkins clearly struggling to recover from reconstructive knee surgery, a recovery process now complete. They were a top-five offensive team all season despite all the hand-wringing over Russell Westbrook’s shot selection, and they should be again this season, assuming everyone develops as expected. Last season’s crunch-time struggles against the Grizzlies and Mavericks should push the coaching staff to add more screening and off-ball action into the Thunder’s offense. With apologies to Dallas, this is the team to beat in the Western Conference. Miami and Oklahoma City were two of just three teams to finish among the league’s top 10 in both points scored and allowed per possession last season. Any Finals matchup other than Heat-Thunder will be a minor surprise. Chicago Bulls This is the team most poised to engineer that surprise. The frightening defense will be there as along as Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and the bench stoppers (Taj Gibson, Ronnie Brewer and Omer Asik) are playing and coach Tom Thibodeau is screaming and scheming. The questions come at the other end, where the Bulls gradually built a (slightly) above-average offense that nonetheless struggled against elite defenses in the playoffs. Richard Hamilton should add a punch of creativity, and Chicago needs more consistent scoring from both Carlos Boozer and Noah, the latter of whom looked to be developing into a much better offensive player before a thumb injury in December cost him more than two months. They’ll need better balance to beat Miami four times in seven tries, and they start a notch below the Heat until they show that balance. IF ALMOST EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT Dallas Mavericks Mark Cuban let several core players go in hopes of hoarding cap space for the summer of 2012 and beyond, and one of those players — Tyson Chandler — is an enormous, irreplaceable loss. If the lasting image of the 2011 Finals is LeBron dribbling aimlessly along the perimeter, at least take notice of Chandler’s place in the image, bending his knees and sliding along with James a few feet above the foul line, a scowling wall of defense. Brendan Haywood and Ian Mahinmi can’t do that for 35 minutes a night, and neither can fill Chandler’s role as a dangerous pick-and-roll man streaking down the paint. But the other key parts are still here, if a year older now, and the last-second acquisition of Lamar Odom gives a versatile team one of the league’s most versatile players. Odom can back up both Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion, and he should help the Mavs score more efficiently when Nowitzki rests — crucial stretches of time in which Dallas struggled just to hold the fort against good teams. Toss in some internal development (finally, Roddy Beaubois?) and it’s not far-fetched to see the aging champs push into June. San Antonio Spurs I’d bet on one of the Spurs-Lakers-Celtics trio having a much worse season than anticipated, but I feel comfortable about the Spurs holding steady for what might be Tim Duncan’s swan song. This team won 61 games last season despite some depth issues, and its best player, Manu Ginobili, was limited by injury during a nightmare first-round matchup against the bulky Grizzlies. Of course, you risk injuries when you build around aging guys, and that’s one big reason San Antonio sits here and not in the category above. And as long as they play DeJuan Blair and Matt Bonner heavy minutes at power forward, the Spurs will have trouble against teams with two bangers inside. But this team should be deeper this season, as Tiago Splitter settles in, and the James Anderson/Kawhi Leonard duo develop on the wing. Watch out. Memphis Grizzlies Something has already gone wrong, of course; Darrell Arthur, the team’s third big man and a crucial backup, will miss the full season after tearing his Achilles. Memphis has zeroed in on Dante Cunningham as his replacement, and while Cunningham brings a poor man’s version of Arthur’s mid-range game, the injury will continue to hurt. So will the loss of Shane Battier, who provided the mix of shooting and defense Memphis so badly needs when Tony Allen, a non-shooter, is on the floor. Speaking of Allen: He has always been a ferocious defender, but he emerged last season as a neutral offensive player instead of a glaring minus, in part because he posted a career-low turnover rate. Allen is going to have to manage that again if Memphis is to seriously contend, and Rudy Gay will need to make another jump atop the one he made before a season-ending shoulder injury. The “ifs” are already piling up. THE WILDEST WILD CARDS Los Angeles Clippers The signing of Reggie Evans late Tuesday at least gives the Clippers an actual NBA player to put behind Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, but Evans is a one-tool guy (rebounding) and a stop-gap solution, at best, to the Clippers’ glaring depth issues. This should be an above-average scoring team right away, but they’ll have to prove themselves on defense, where the Chris Paul/Jordan combination at least provides a good foundation up the middle. The ceiling on this team isn’t clear, especially since they still have some flexibility — the $2.5 million “room” exception, a mid-sized trade exception from the Paul deal and a crowd of assets on the wing — to make another move or two. New York Knicks Would you pick anyone else to win the Atlantic Division right now, if your life depended on it? I wouldn’t. The Knicks aren’t a serious title contender, and unlike the Clippers, I don’t see a scenario in which they could get there this season. There is just too much in flux. Carmelo Anthony, never more than a so-so passer for his career, is practicing a point forward role because of the Knicks shallow backcourt. Toney Douglas and Landry Fields are the current starters, and after that, it’s rookie Iman Shumpmert (whom New York fans have already put forth as Michael Bloomberg’s successor as mayor) and whatever remains of Mike Bibby and Baron Davis. But Melo is also working the point-forward role in part because of the difficulty New York faces in building an offense around two finishers (Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire). The pieces just don’t fit here — yet — as well as they do with the Clippers. The one that does: Chandler, one of the league’s half-dozen best defenders and an elite offensive rebounder. His presence is huge for a team that actually played worse defensively when Stoudemire and Anthony shared the court. AGED OUT OF CONTENTION Boston Celtics I just don’t see it for these proud champions, a below-average offensive team already last season. They’ll be good, and they’ll make the playoffs and probably win a round, but asking this team to win four straight playoff rounds after a compressed 66-game season just seems unfeasible. Paul Pierce is already questionable for the opener, and the loss of Jeff Green leaves Boston just two wing backups with any real NBA experience: Marquis Daniels and (gulp) Sasha Pavlovic. The young guys will help, and Brandon Bass will loosen up the offense a bit, but barring a major move — one Boston doesn’t have the cap flexibility to easily pull — the Celtics are not quite a contender. Doc Rivers has talked up Boston’s depth, mentioning the need for production from lineups featuring just one (or zero) of Boston’s core four stars. Eight such lineups played at least 20 minutes together last season, according to Basketball Value; only one had a positive scoring margin, and it played the fewest minutes among those groups. Los Angeles Lakers This is the third team, along with Miami and Oklahoma City, that finished among the league’s top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency last season. New coach Mike Brown will struggle to coax a top-10 offense from a team that scored the ball very well with three of its four best players (Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol) on the court but fell off when two or more were sitting. One of those players — Odom — is now in Dallas. Bryant and Gasol are aging, and there is not even an average point guard on hand to facilitate things for them. The Lakers are counting on Bryant’s creative mid-range game and all the attention Bynum and Gasol will draw in the post, but Bynum will miss the season’s first five games, and there is very little proven quality depth after the first four. This is a playoff team, and one or two among the small army of young guys and new free agents will emerge as contributors. But this is not a title contender, as presently constructed; it’s a team on the way down. SLEEP ON THEM AT YOUR OWN RISK Denver Nuggets John Hollinger of ESPN.com nailed this in his Western Conference preview Tuesday, so I won’t belabor it here: The Nuggets are a very good team, and they have the kind of borderline 12-man depth to be a major pain in the regular season. Denver was the league’s most efficient scoring team before the Carmelo Anthony deal, and it nearly led the league in both points scored and allowed per possession after the trade. In other words: The Nuggets lost Melo and basically became the best team in the league. The key pieces are all still here, and at least three of them — Arron Afflalo, Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari — are poised for mini-breakouts. Depth on the front line will be an issue, and Denver might run into the same crunch-time issues that derailed them in the playoffs against the Thunder. Nene isn’t a reliable go-to scorer against top defenses, and no one has yet emerged as a late-game pick-and-roll creator under the highest pressure. But don’t be surprised if this team pushes for home court in the first round. Portland Trail Blazers This might be the ultimate “on the right night” team. Small lineups with Gerald Wallace at power forward and LaMarcus Aldridge at center scored more efficiently than any team in the league last season, but those lineups expose both players to burdens that might not be sustainable for the long haul. Then again, Portland’s options at center — Marcus Camby and Kurt Thomas — might not be sustainable, either. Ditto for all the long jumpers Portland’s always-moving wings, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum, hoist every night. Both will likely improve their off-the-dribble games, and Raymond Felton has the kind of floor-spacing range Andre Miller lacked. Felton might even push this slow-poke team into transition a bit, something that could mesh well with those smaller lineups. Jamal Crawford will provide some dribble-drive creation if Matthews and Batum can’t, and he should be able to develop the kind of pick-and-pop chemistry with Aldridge he and Al Horford shared in Atlanta. Portland can compete with anyone on a given night, and there will be enough such nights to make this team scary — and a playoff lock. PAINFUL, PAINFUL STASIS Atlanta Hawks The Hawks ranked 20th in points per possession and barely got to the line last season, and in their continued avoidance of the luxury tax, they lost one player — Jamal Crawford — who could add a little pick-and-roll, foul-drawing spice to things. They were putrid in the playoffs, when the Hawks ranked dead last in scoring by far among all teams that won at least one playoff round. Jeff Teague’s speed and pick-and-roll work will help, but it will be interesting to see how the Hawks split ball-handling between Teague and Joe Johnson. Beyond that, it’s same old, same old, with Josh Smith launching ill-advised jumpers, Al Horford working to keep it all together (without a go-to post game, it must be said) and Larry Drew falling back on uncreative sets. This team could win a round in an Eastern Conference with just two top dogs, but they’re not beating one of those two teams four times in May, and they could do much worse if Teague disappoints or their shallow bench falls on its face completely. Orlando Magic Stan Van Gundy needs some more dynamic off-the-dribble creators to help an offense that sunk to league-average in the regular season and collapsed in the playoffs, but Otis Smith responded by re-signing Jason Richardson and trading a good offensive player (Brandon Bass) for a less efficient one in Glen Davis. Still, this will be an elite defensive team so long as Howard is here, and it simply cannot shoot worse than it did against Atlanta in the first round. It’s easy to forget after that dismal series, but the Magic had the fifth-best scoring margin in the league last season, ahead of the Mavericks, Thunder and Celtics. Orlando is a very good team, but the aging of key cogs (Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu) and the endless Howard rumors give it a ceiling not much higher than Atlanta’s. Obviously, if it trades Howard during the season, this becomes a lottery-quality team. A DISASTER IF THEY MISS THE PLAYOFFS Indiana Pacers Let’s temper the expectations a bit. This was a miserable offensive team last season, and though it got better under Frank Vogel and added a solid pick-and-pop/post-up threat in David West this offseason, the Pacers still lack a consistent outside-in creator to lean on. Darren Collison should improve in that regard, George Hill will help and Vogel will use Danny Granger as a decent pick-and-roll ball-handler. The defense should be stout, as it was last season, and the Pacers have so many young guys, it’s almost inevitable one or two will make something of a jump this season. This should be a playoff team, and it could scare anyone but Miami and Chicago if it snags a seed above No. 7 or No. 8. Philadelphia 76ers Ditto for the Sixers, who carry over essentially the same team that emerged as one of the league’s best defensive clubs last season. The defense should remain strong, provided Thaddeus Young continues to work hard as a small-ball power forward and Andre Iguodala sticks around to work as perhaps the league’s best wing defender. These guys love Doug Collins (everyone does for the first couple of years), and he’ll have to sort out minutes among a crowded guard rotation in which each member brings a wildly different skill set. But most of those guards are young, and Jrue Holiday especially appears ready to emerge as a possible top-50 player. Center is still a problem when Elton Brand isn’t playing there, and Collins will have to find the right mix in the middle — and of lineups big and small. With the Eastern Conference in flux outside the top two, winning a round isn’t a crazy goal, and missing the playoffs would be a disastrous step back. LURKING ON THE EDGE Milwaukee Bucks If there’s a team that can steal a bottom playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, disappointing one of the teams above, it’s a Bucks team with a healthy Andrew Bogut. This team was miserable offensively last season, becoming one of just a handful of teams to score fewer than 102 points per 100 possessions since the league effectively banned hand-checking after the 2003-04 season. Bogut shot a career-worst 49.5 percent from the field (struggling from almost everywhere) and from the line, where the hit an atrocious 44 percent as he recovered from a gruesome right arm injury. He is reportedly healthier this year, and his re-emergence as a reliable pick-and-roll threat alone would place the Bucks offense somewhere between “below average” and “awful.” Brandon Jennings should improve his cold-shooting and decision-making, and the additions of Stephen Jackson, Mike Dunleavy and Beno Udrih — in the right doses — should help. If the Bucks finish, say, 18th in points per possession, they will be a playoff threat, because you know they are bringing the defense. Houston Rockets I love the Rockets. Who doesn’t love the Rockets? They sported the league’s fourth-best offense least season and had the overall profile of a 47-win playoff team, according to Basketball-Reference. Kyle Lowry developed a long-range shot to go with his elite defense, a few of the pups (Chase Budinger, Patrick Patterson) came along, and the team was generally a scoring machine under Rick Adelman’s corner offense. If there is a team that might topple one of the Western Conference’s top eight, this would seem to be it. But Adelman is gone, Lowry has to prove last season’s shooting wasn’t a fluke, Luis Scola should begin following a normal aging pattern at any moment and the Trade That Shall Not Be Named cost this team a real NBA center. Don’t stick them in the playoffs quite yet. LOTTERY-BOUND, FRUSTRATING DIVISION Golden State Warriors Stephen Curry sprained his surgically repaired right ankle in a preseason game Tuesday, Monta Ellis still can’t guard anyone and the team’s major offseason splash involved blowing its amnesty provision on Charlie Bell, chasing DeAndre Jordan when everyone knew the Clippers would match any reasonable deal and then using most of its remaining cap space on Kwame Brown. This team has a bunch of young pieces to watch, especially Ekpe Udoh, who might be starting as the team’s nominal center before February if Andris Biedrins plays as he did last season. The Warriors should also have at least $11.5 million in cap room this summer, though they could have squeezed out more had they reserved amnesty for Biedrins. Bottom line: Golden State doesn’t quite look equipped to fulfill new head coach Mark Jakson’s playoff guarantee, and this team remains more about what’s next than what’s on the floor now. Phoenix Suns Phoenix was a bit better defensively with Marcin Gortat on the floor, though that gain was counterbalanced a bit by the offensive hit the Suns usually take when Channing Frye moves from center to power forward. Still, given a full season to work the pick-and-roll with Steve Nash, Gortat should build upon the strong numbers he put up in Phoenix last season (16 points, 11 rebounds per 36 minutes), and the Suns will end up better off defensively with a true center on the floor at all times. Unfortunately, this was still one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season. Beyond that, Shannon Brown just hasn’t looked the part of a NBA-quality starting two guard, Nash’s presumptive backup (Aaron Brooks) is in China and the team is thin everywhere but at center and on the wing. It’ll have cap space this summer, though, when Nash’s deal expires. Will he be on the team all season? New Jersey Nets Rarely has a team so blatantly put all its eggs in one basket. The Nets are chasing Dwight Howard and have shown very little concern for their 2011-12 roster. That’s fine … if it works. In the meantime, there is little here on the wing beyond Anthony Morrow, though perhaps Marshon Brooks and/or Damion James might develop faster than expected. They’ve overpaid Kris Humphries (one year, $8 million) to snare rebounds, play below-average defense and hold the power forward spot for a year as either trade bait or an expiring contract. But think about this: If they sign Andrei Kirilenko to fill the small forward spot, would you put it past this team to push .500 and compete for the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot? You could do worse than a three-man nucleus of Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Kirilenko. Even then, the lottery seems likely, barring a franchise-changing deal for Howard. LOTTERY-BOUND, FUN DIVISION Utah Jazz They are probably going to be worse than hopeful Jazz fans might expect, but they are loaded with four recent lottery picks (Derrick Favors, Alec Burks, Enes Kanter, Gordon Hayward) who all figure to get minutes this season. None of them are quite ready for starter-level time, though Favors could surprise if he has improved the mid-range jumper he flashed last season and cuts his massive foul rate. Utah almost has to deal one of its veteran bigs to free up playing time for the young guys and open up even more potential cap space going forward. In the meantime, those veteran bigs remain defensive liabilities, and there isn’t quite enough wing scoring or outside shooting for this team to compete every night against good clubs. But they’ll be fun, and the future is bright. Detroit Pistons Did you know the Pistons had a better offense last season, in terms of points per possession, than Boston, Memphis, Philadelphia and Atlanta? Detroit turned into a decent scoring team, and though it couldn’t guard anyone (especially inside), I’ll admit a fondness for the wacky pieces here, even with all the positional overlap. The Pistons got fair value on Rodney Stuckey and Tayshaun Prince, and they’ll provide some stability — on movable contracts — as all the young guys (Brandon Knight, Jonas Jerebko, Austin Daye, Greg Monroe) develop. Monroe should improve as a pick-and-roll defender as he learns passing angles, and it will be fun to see how new head coach Lawrence Frank mixes up his personnel. Frank has historically improved his team’s defense, and if he can manage that here without any regression on the other end, Detroit should be a decent team by the end of the season. Minnesota Timberwolves No sales job needed here, even if there will be growing pains. Ricky Rubio knows all about passing angles and timing, even if he can’t shoot a lick, and he’s finally here to find Kevin Love, Derrick Williams and wave after wave of long, intriguing, unproven wing players. Firing coach Kurt Rambis and hiring Adelman would have improved the offense on its own, but playing more small-ball lineups, with Love at center, will combine with Adelman’s corner offense to transform this team into a challenge for any defense. The Wolves will struggle on the other end, as they did last season, especially against the three-point shot. And the growth on offense will be slow as Rubio finds his feet and the team learns how best to distribute its shot attempts (ahem, Michael Beasley). But they’ll be a must-watch NBA League Pass team. Sacramento Kings This team may well have another year of “train wreck” status before it finds itself, but the wreck will be entertaining. Tyreke Evans is healthy and John Salmons, for all his ball-stopping, will add some two-way steadiness on the wing. But a team that ranked 27th in assist rate last season still doesn’t have any polished distributors, and perimeter defense will be a major issue as Jimmer Fredette learns the ropes and Marcus Thornton learns not to turn his head. J.J. Hickson is a one-dimensional offensive player (he’s great at slipping screens, and that’s it) and he’ll infuriate you on defense, and DeMarcus Cousins has more stages of growth ahead. Chuck Hayes would have been a perfect stabilizer on defense and unselfish passer on offense. Get well, Chuckwagon. JUST LOUSY Washington Wizards John Wall is going to be fantastic and Jan Vesely will entertain when given the chance, but this team is going to lead the league in bad shots, missed defensive assignments and ball-watching. They’ve been pressing and trapping a bit in the preseason, and that brings the potential for both fast-breaks off turnovers and mass defensive confusion. New Orleans Hornets They have Eric Gordon, the league’s best under-30 shooting guard once Wade hits the big 3-0 next month, and they have three useful front-court players who can’t be on the floor together in Carl Landry, Chris Kaman and Emeka Okafor. Beyond that, it’s ugly. Toronto Raptors The Raptors are building an interesting front line with Ed Davis, Amir Johnson, Andrea Bargnani and Jonas Valanciunas, their 2011 first-round pick, set to debut next season. First-year head coach Dwane Casey will figure out how to construct a decent defense out of that once the Raptors get more pieces. In the meantime, he’ll get them to compete and experiment with zones and semi-zones; the Raptors will not finish last in points allowed per possession, as they did in each of the last two seasons. The Raps punted on splurging for major pieces this offseason, settling instead for low-priced, short-term deals. That was smart. The Raptors have cap flexibility going forward, and they didn’t reach on any expensive free agents in a short-sighted move to be more competitive this year. And they won’t be competitive this year. They remain over-reliant on DeMar DeRozan and Leandro Barbosa to create shots in the wing, though that over-reliance might serve DeRozan in the long run. Jerryd Bayless still doesn’t look ready for major minutes at point guard, and while Jose Calderon is underrated, he’s a defensive liability. Cleveland Cavaliers No surprise here. It’s all about developing Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson and the rest of their young guys while angling for another lottery pick in a deep 2012 draft to go along with all the future first-rounders (one each in 2012, 2013 and 2015) acquired via trade. This season will hurt, especially if they deal Anderson Varejao, but the pain is a necessary part of the process. Charlotte Bobcats The Bobcats could actually be a less-efficient offensive team than last year’s Bucks. They were 26th last season in points per possession, and two pieces who did a lot of the heavy lifting — Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace — are gone. Tyrus Thomas and his improved mid-range jumper are here, and Kemba Walker might push D.J. Augustin for the starting point guard spot by the end of the season. That says more about Augustin, who loves going away from screens on pick-and-roll plays and consistently ranks near the bottom among point guards in assist rate. Augustin is a low-turnover guy, but that doesn’t mean he actually creates a lot of useful offense. Boris Diaw does, at times, but he’s fat, and he might have to play center on this team, because DeSagana Diop is even fatter. It’s going to be a miserable year, but if it ends with another high draft pick to go along with Walker, Bismack Biyombo and a protected pick from Portland, it’s worth it in the long run.
