I think the most interesting development over the next five years will be how Crane handles extensions. This is not 2017 anymore—the league has changed. I understand the analogy of not jumping off bridges because your friends are doing it, but when the TAMPA BAY RAYS hand out a 12 year extension (I.e., not just a small market, but an elite baseball ops organization), I think the Astros will have to seriously consider repositioning their stance of not wanting to go past six years. Maybe that means we have a shot at Tucker. Or maybe we zig while everyone else zags. I really hope we can lock in Tucker and Bregman, but I know that’s also naive with all of our other stars leaving in FA. I guess we’ll have to wait and see. It’s hard not to be romantic with Baggy and Biggio, and hopefully Altuve, but the days on one-team careers seems impossible without the aforementioned long extension. Maybe we let them go to try to hold onto Yordan longer…
Long contracts seldom workout. I would say the best way moving forward is what we did is Javier, Bregman, and Alvarez except maybe tack on a few extra years. It would even be tough for me to give Ohtani a 12 year contract. I would give him 5-7 years for whatever number he wants. 300 million over 5-6 years is reasonable.
I would say you just need to have a different perspective. Long contracts seldom look good in the latter years, but that is expected. A team still does fine if a player outperforms the AAV the first half of the deal. A player with a 10 yr / $300M deal needs to get to 30 WAR the length of the contract. If he can average 5 WAR the first 6 seasons, anything the team gets in years 7-10 is profit. But fans scream that the player sucks and needs to be benched The problem is the system. Starting level players give their teams 5× or sometimes even more value than they are paid the first 6 years to earn the benefit of a big contract. Then owners and fans complain if a player doesn't make at least 1 WAR per $10M spent on the contract. What about the 15 WAR a player got while earning $20M his first 6 years? Those low paid players should allow a team to reward a player while keeping the overall payroll within reasonable budget. But that is a fantasy land.
JJ Reddick brought up and interesting point/comparison made by Daryl Morey…if the MLB were like the NBA, not only could Barry Bonds/Mike Trout/etc., bat 8 or 9 times out of 9 times (instead of 1 out of 9)…but they could also choose the pitcher to face/attack. MLB is really unique in that perspective, and the Angels, Padres, etc exemplify that. You can have a handful of generational, transcendent talents (and have to sign them to absurd deals), but that really may not move the needle all that much. It’s astounding that teams like the Rays and Guardians can have sustained success without the albatross contracts…but that’s the nature. So I get the aversion to long-term deals. My only hesitation or question is, if that in fact phases HOU out of pieces they DO need to compete at a high level, then they need to rethink their strategy. Can we continue to churn out Chas type players at a high enough clip to forego the risks inherent in signing some of these top end players to lengthy deals? That’s the 300 million dollar question I suppose…but I tend to think that luck will run out when those same players face additional stressors by NOT having elite talents (like Yordan, Tucker, etc.) available to help shoulder the load.
Potential in-house replacements for each player on current roster reaching free agency in <5 years: C Martin Maldonado (2023): Cesar Salazar 1B Jose Abreu (2025): Joey Loperfido, Jordan Brewer, Zach Dezenzo, Will Wagner 2B Jose Altuve (2024): Joey Loperfido, Pedro Leon, Will Wagner, Zach Dezenzo, Shay Whitcomb 3B Alex Bregman (2024): Zach Dezenzo, Will Wagner, Shay Whitcomb IF Mauricio Dubon (2026): Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Cristian Gonzalez, Alberto Hernandez, Brice Matthews, Chase Jaworksky, Jeron Williams, Dauri Lorenzo, Zach Dezenzo RF Kyle Tucker (2025), CF Chas McCormick (2026): Joey Loperfido, Zach Dezenzo, Jacob Melton, Pedro Leon, Kenedy Corona, Zach Daniels, Justin Dirden, Jordan Brewer, Matthew Barefoot SP Framber Valdez (2025), Justin Verlander (2025), Jose Urquidy (2025), RP Phil Maton (2023), Hector Neris (2023), Ryne Stanek (2023): Shawn Dubin, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, Forrest Whitley, Brandon Bielak, Rhett Kouba, Colton Gordon, Julio Robaina, Angel Macuare, Jairo Solis, Blair Henley, Ryan Gusto, Jaime Melendez, Aaron Brown RP Ryan Pressly (2025), Rafael Montero (2025), Bryan Abreu (2026): about 35 guys currently between Fayetteville and Sugar Land Extend Altuve and Framber, have Loperfido and Dezenzo pan out, window stays open indefinitely.
Some of you guys act like we don’t spend money ourselves and regardless we’ve seen where spending blindly has left NYY, SD, and NYM this season… Where have we ranked in payroll the past 4-5 years? I’ll make it easy for you… 2020- 5th 2021- 5th 2022- 8th 2023- 7th The teams who have spent big in free agency typically haven’t fared too well…
Have the Astros totally ruled out Alvarez at 1st base down the line? I know it’s been mentioned in previous seasons, and there’s now a long term hole that will need to be filled.
Who knows what the future brings but last I heard they weren't happy with his flexibility and reactions fielding ground balls and bounced throws. I heard/read so long ago though, that I have no idea where or how reliable the source.
Updated at the midpoint of the offseason: 2024: C: Diaz, Caratini; 4.0 fwar, $6.7M IF: Abreu, Altuve, Bregman, Pena, Dubon, Kessinger; 13.4 fwar, $67.4M OF: Tucker, Meyers, Alvarez, McCormick, others; 15.6 fwar, $36.3M SP: Valdez, Verlander, Javier, Brown, France, Garcia, McCullers, Urquidy; 13.2 fwar, $63.2M RP: Pressly, Abreu, Graveman, Montero, others; 3.7 fwar, $37.2M Losses: Maldonado, Brantley, Maton, Neris, Stanek Prospects ready: Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner, Quincy Hamilton, Justin Dirden, Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Forrest Whitley, Spencer Arrighetti, Colton Gordon, Rhett Kouba Arbitration class: Tucker, McCormick, Dubon, Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Bryan Abreu Projections (26 man roster only): 50 fwar, $211M Summary: 97-107 wins with $5-10M in payroll open. For the first time, Houston will enter a season with multiple bad contracts on their books (Abreu, McCullers, and Montero, plus maybe Graveman), but this is still arguably the deepest roster Houston has ever fielded, as-is, and there's a likelihood for them to make 1 more meaningful move, even if it's just signing a 3rd tier free agent RP like Matt Moore. It might be tempting to borrow from the present to fortify the future by trading Framber, but that carries a lot of risk. 2025: Losses: Altuve, Bregman, Pressly (if he doesn't trigger his option), Verlander (if his option doesn't get triggered) Prospects ready: Jacob Melton, Zach Dezenzo, Collin Barber, Kenedy Corona, Julio Robaina, Jaime Melendez, others Arbitration class: Tucker, Meyers, McCormick, Dubon, Pena, Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Abreu Projections: 44 fwar, $198M (includes Pressly's $15M and Verlander's $17.5M) Summary: Losing Altuve and Bregman drops the projection to 90-100 wins, but those 2 also open up some payroll, although almost all of that will be eaten by projected arb raises. The quintet of controllable starting pitchers (Javier, McCullers, Garcia, Brown, France) carries a lot of upside but also a lot of risk, and that may be what ultimately determines if Houston continues to contend. Aside from 2B and 3B, the lineup projects to be pretty solid, but losing both Altuve and Bregman is bound to be felt. I fully expect Altuve to be extended. Zach Dezenzo could solve a big problem if he's able to be a 3 fwar 3B by 2025. With prudent spending, Houston should again be among the favorites to win the AL. 2026: Losses: Tucker, Jose Abreu, Valdez, Verlander, Urquidy, Montero, Pressly Prospects ready: Miguel Palma, Zach Cole, Tyler Whitaker, Cristian Gonzalez, Brice Matthews, Andrew Taylor, Jose Fleury, Michael Knorr, Nolan DeVos, Trey Dombroski, Alex, Santos, Miguel Ullola, others Arbitration class: Diaz, Pena, McCormick, Dubon, Meyers, Brown, Garcia, Bryan Abreu Projections: 35 fWAR, $126M Summary: Here's where things get a little dicey, as it is difficult to confidently project a surefire contending Astros team that does not include Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, or Valdez. Making no moves, the team would project for 80-90 wins with about $100M in available payroll. The rotation would still feature McCullers, Javier, Garcia, France, and Brown, while the stock of arms currently in the farm would indicate the bullpen should be plenty healthy. So whether or not Houston can continue the dynasty would depend on the long-term core of Pena, Alvarez, Diaz, and prospects, plus any extensions that get done. They will have money to patch a couple of significant holes, but they will need 1-2 prospect to pan out into above average regulars or better to be as good as they've been since 2017. By this point we will know if any of their underrated high ceiling prospects (Dezenzo, Loperfido, Corona, Melton) are going to be core pieces that extend the window. Again, prudent spending up to the tax threshold should get this team back to the 90-100 win projection that justifies continuing to compete. 2027: Losses: McCormick, Dubon, McCullers, Garcia, Bryan Abreu Prospects ready: Luis Baez, Cam Fisher, Alonzo Tredwell, Carlos Espinosa, Jake Bloss, Sandy Mejia, others Arbitration class: Diaz, Pena, Meyers, Brown, France, others Projections: 34 fWAR, $100M Summary: This is far enough out that the roster will likely be at least 50% different than what's currently projected. The farm could produce several stars who keep the window fully open, or the team could require a full rebuild at this point. Still, there should be significant payroll flexibilty, so the 2027 outlook should be very similar to 2026; the team will probably be decent (80-90 wins) even without big spending, and a rebuild is unlikely to be necessary, but it remains to be seen if they can get enough via player development, trades, extensions, and free agency to keep these teams on par with 2017-2025. 2028: Losses: Pena, Meyers, Javier Prospects ready: Kenni Gomez, Camilo Diaz, Chase Jaworsky, Nehomar Ochoa Jr., Anthony Huezo, Eduardo Perez, Esmil Valencia, German Ramirez, Alberto Hernandez, Raimy Rodriguez, many others Arbitration class: Diaz, Brown, France, others Projections: 32 fWAR, $76M Summary: The losses on the position player side should be easily absorbed by the farm, as its far enough away to completely turn over the system, and I am fairly optimistic in the farm's ability to replace Javier; they'd still project for 80-90 wins with similar payroll flexibility. Another 80-90 win projection with an incredibly low payroll, so it's really hard for me to see this team not contending, whether they are coming out of a rebuild/reload that started in 2025 or were lucky enough to extend the window thru player development. All in all I don't see a rebuild being likely unless the farm system totally fails or Crane/ownership stops spending money.
Why? We had a 93 win projection last season without Verlander, Abreu having a bad season, a lot of injuries and Maldonado getting 400 PA. Could multiple things go wrong again next season, sure, but making average expectations for the players on the roster next season, it should be an improvement.
Are you talking the WAR or the salary? Because WAR isn't far off (Fangraphs has 47.3) but salary is very low. Cots estimates: 26 man actual $216.6M 40 man actual $224.1M CBT payroll: $240.4M
Why? The war/win projections are taken from fangraphs current depth chart projections, there was nothing changed on my part.
While on a projected $/war basis, the Hader signing is not a good value and thus damages the Astros long term outlook from that perspective, the bigger takeaway is that it introduced the possibility that Jim Crane might field payrolls above the CBT. Projecting 2028 wins under a $220M payroll is quite different than projecting them under a $250M payroll. I will do another detailed breakdown just before opening day, but I currently project Houston’s win totals as such: 2024: 95-105 2025: 90-100 (assumes Verlander and Pressly are still on the team and effective or their $ is reallocated similarly) 2026: 80-90 with no FA spending, 90-100 with average FA success under $240M 26 man payroll 2027, 2028: 80-90 with no FA spending, 95-105 with average FA success under $240M 26 man payroll If Crane keeps spending like this and Dana does an above average job on the farm, Houston should be able to keep contending for the foreseeable future. If Crane turns off the spigot and/or they hit a rough patch of busted prospects, the run will end.
Updated since the season is underway. 2025: C: Diaz, Caratini; 3.5 fwar, $7M IF: Loperfido, Altuve, Bregman, Pena, Dubon, Kessinger, Singleton; 13 fwar, $73M OF: Tucker, Meyers, Alvarez, McCormick, others; 13.5 fwar, $46M SP: Valdez, Verlander, Javier, Blanco, Brown, France, Garcia, McCullers, others; 15.5 fwar, $71M RP: Hader, Pressly, Abreu, Martinez, others; 4.5 fwar, $39M Moves to make: salary dump Abreu and Montero, trade Urquidy, re-sign Bregman or equivalent Losses: Bregman (although for this exercise I'm assuming he is resigned or replaced), Pressly (if he doesn't trigger his option), Verlander (if his option doesn't get triggered) Prospects ready: Pedro Leon, Joey Loperfido, Jacob Amaya, AJ Blubaugh, Spencer Arrighetti, Ryan Gusto, Misael Tamarez, Forrest Whitley Arbitration class: Tucker, Meyers, McCormick, Dubon, Pena, Valdez, Garcia, B Abreu Projections: 50 fwar, $240M (includes Pressly's $15M and Verlander's $17.5M and $35M/yr for Bregman, excludes Abreu and Montero assuming they'll be dumped with prospects attached); 95-105 wins Summary: They can retain Bregman if Crane is willing to break his rule about long contracts; $280M/8yrs is doable provided they dump Abreu and Montero's contracts. The glut of controllable starting pitchers carries a lot of upside and downside, and that may be what ultimately determines if Houston continues to contend. With prudent spending and solid player development, Houston should again be among the favorites to win the AL. 2026: Losses: Tucker, Caratini, Valdez, Verlander, Pressly Prospects ready: Miguel Palma, Jacob Melton, Kenedy Corona, Colin Barber, Miguel Ullola, Jose fleury, Jaime Melendez, Alex Santos, others Arbitration class: Diaz, Pena, McCormick, Dubon, Meyers, Brown, Garcia, Bryan Abreu Projections: 46 fWAR, $199M; 90-100 wins Summary: If Houston retains Bregman, then the lineup will be fine, and on par with previous seasons as long as they get everyday caliber play out of Loperfido and a RF prospect (melton). Making no moves, the team would project for 80-90 wins with about $100M in available payroll. The rotation would still feature McCullers, Javier, Garcia, France, Blanco, and Brown, while the stock of arms currently in the farm would indicate the bullpen should be plenty healthy. So whether or not Houston can continue the dynasty would depend on the long-term core of Pena, Alvarez, Diaz, and prospects. They will have money to patch a couple of holes, but they will need 2-3 prospects to pan out into above average regulars or better to be as good as they've been since 2017. By this point we will know if any of their underrated high ceiling prospects (Dezenzo, Loperfido, Corona, Melton) are going to be core pieces that extend the window. Again, prudent spending up to the tax threshold should get this team back to the 90-100 win projection that justifies continuing to compete. 2027: Losses: McCormick, Dubon, McCullers, Garcia, Bryan Abreu Prospects ready: Brice Matthews, Luis Baez, Cam Fisher, Alonzo Tredwell, Andrew Taylor, Trey Dombroski, Jake Bloss, others Arbitration class: Diaz, Pena, Meyers, Brown, France, Blanco, others Projections: 44 fWAR, $190M; 90-100 wins Summary: This is far enough out that the roster will likely be very different than what's currently projected. The farm could produce several stars who keep the window fully open, or the team could require a full rebuild at this point. Still, there should be significant payroll flexibilty, so the 2027 outlook should be very similar to 2026; the team will probably be decent (80-90 wins) even without big spending, and a rebuild is unlikely to be necessary, but it remains to be seen if they can get enough via player development, trades, extensions, and free agency to keep these teams on par with 2017-2025. 2028: Losses: Pena, Meyers, Javier Prospects ready: Kenni Gomez, Chase Jaworsky, Nehomar Ochoa Jr., Waner Luciano, many others Arbitration class: Diaz, Brown, France, Blanco, Loperfido, others Projections: 41 fWAR, $171M, 85-95 wins Summary: The losses on the position player side should be easily absorbed by the farm, as its far enough away to completely turn over the system, and I am fairly optimistic in the farm's ability to replace Javier; they'd still project for 85-95 wins with some payroll flexibility. It's easy for me to see this team contending, whether they are coming out of a rebuild/reload that started in 2026 or were lucky enough to extend the window thru player development. 2029: Losses: Diaz, Alvarez, Brown, Hader Prospects ready: Camilo Diaz, Esmil Valencia, many many others Arbitration class: Loperido, Melton, others Projections: 40 fwar, $121M, 85-95 wins Summary: everything will look different in 5 years. But it is clear that with prudent spending and continued player development, the window probably won't close. All in all I don't see a rebuild being likely unless the farm system totally fails or Crane/ownership stops spending money.85
