Updated 5 year outlook

Projected offseason/deadline checklists:

2023 deadline: trade for a catcher (Salvador Perez or Yasmani Grandal look like the obvious candidates)

2023-2024: extend Altuve and extend (or trade) Bregman

2024-2025: extend (or trade) Tucker

2025-2026: sign a ToR SP

2026-2027: extend Pena and other young players

 

I would never trade Altuve. They have to do whatever it takes to keep him. He is by far the most important player in franchise history imho.

Bregman would depend on his value. If he has an MVP caliber season this year and has his eyes on $250M+, then I shop him. The free agent market that offseason will be bare. If he could bring back 2 MLB top 20 prospects plus 1-2 2nd or 3rd tier prospects then it might be worth doing. It would suck to let him walk for a 4th round pick if he can single handedly vault the farm back into the top tier of the league. Plus Houston would have money to go get a viable replacement; sure they’re not going to get someone as good, but if they can replace a 5 win Bregman with a 2-3 win free agent, save $200M and add 2 potential superstar prospects, it might be worth it. The same logic applies to Tucker the following year.

If Whitley pans out into a ToR SP then they wouldn’t need one, but the odds are stacked against that for now.

 

It would only make sense to trade Bregman if several factors coincided:
1. Bregman has a monster 2023 and demands $250M+.
2. Houston feels confident they can replace his production in the aggregate (I.e. they can sign a 2 win 3B and make up the other 3 wins by using Bregmans salary to improve elsewhere, like the bullpen, C, CF, or SP).
3. Houston can get a monster return for Bregman; something on the order of 2 MLB Top 30 prospects plus another 1-2 fringe Top 100 prospect. That kind of haul is the equivalent of the benefit a team gets for tanking for 2 years. If Houston can get that in exchange for 1 season of 1 player, it’s a smart move (albeit one that would be wildly unpopular with fans).

I consider the likelihood of all 3 of those factors coming together as extremely low, like less than 5%.

The free agent market after this season is very very weak outside of Ohtani and Matt Chapman. Teoscar Hernandez might be the 3rd best position player available (Bader, Kike Hernandez, Amed Rosario, and Ian Happ would also be in that mix). That means any superstars made available for trade will carry an extremely high value.

 

Sure, but I refuse to entertain that possibility.

 

Updated post 2023-trade deadline:

2024:
C: Diaz, Salazar; 2.0 fwar, $1.4M
IF: Abreu, Altuve, Bregman, Pena, Dubon, Kessinger; 14.6 fwar, $67.3M
OF: Tucker, Meyers, Alvarez, McCormick, Julks; 16 fwar, $34.6M
SP: Valdez, Verlander, Javier, Brown, France, Garcia, McCullers; 15.5 fwar, $69.4M
RP: Pressly, Abreu, Graveman, Montero, others; 3.5 fwar, $42.1M
Losses: Maldonado, Brantley, Maton, Neris (if he doesn't trigger his option), Stanek
Prospects ready: Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Justin Dirden, Forrest Whitley, Spencer Arrighetti, Angel Macuare
Arbitration class: Tucker, McCormick, Dubon, Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Bryan Abreu
Projections: 50 fwar, $211M
Summary: 95-105 wins with $10-30M in payroll open. Valdez and Tucker will carry significant arb salaries. For the first time, Houston will enter an offseason with multiple bad contracts on their books (Abreu, McCullers, and Montero will combine for $48M and project for <2fwar). But the holes are minor; the farm should be able to backfill the bullpen departures, and Salazar could be given a shot as the backup C given his high defensive floor and familiarity with the staff. But even if they do nothing, they will still field a roster on par with all the great teams since 2017 so long as the farm fills in the bullpen. It is unquestionable that they should still be contending and if things break right, this could be one of the all-time great rosters.

2025:
Losses: Altuve, Bregman, Neris, Pressly (if he doesn't trigger his option)
Prospects ready: Joey Loperfido, Zach Dezenzo, Collin Barber, Kenedy Corona, Zach Daniels, Jordan Brewer, Colton Gordon, Rhett Kouba, Ryan Gusto, Julio Robaina
Arbitration class: Tucker, Meyers, McCormick, Dubon, Pena, Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, Abreu
Projections: 47 fwar, $199M (includes Pressly's $15M and Neris' $8.5M)
Summary: Losing Altuve and Bregman drops the projection to 90-100 wins, but those 2 also open up some payroll, although most of that will be eaten by projected arb raises. The emergence of Brown/France/Javier and extending Alvarez means this team is still very likely to contend, although unless they spend significant money or have a prospect break out, this team won't quite be on par with previous years. Aside from 2B and 3B, the roster projects to be stacked, but losing both Altuve and Bregman is bound to be felt. I fully expect Altuve to be extended. Zach Dezenzo could solve a big problem if he's able to be a 3 fwar 3B by 2025.

2026:
Losses: Tucker, Jose Abreu, Valdez, Verlander, Urquidy, Montero, Pressly
Prospects ready: Jacob Melton, Miguel Palma, Andrew Taylor, Nolan DeVos, Trey Dombroski, Michael Knorr
Arbitration class: Diaz, Pena, McCormick, Dubon, Meyers, Brown, Garcia, Bryan Abreu
Projections: 39 fWAR, $131M
Summary: Here's where things get a little dicey, as it is difficult to confidently project a surefire contending Astros team that does not include Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, or Valdez. Making no moves, the team would project for 85-95 wins with about $90M in available payroll. The rotation would still feature McCullers, Javier, Garcia, France, and Brown, while the stock of arms currently in the upper levels of the farm would indicate the bullpen should be plenty healthy. So whether or not Houston can continue the dynasty would depend on the long-term core of Pena, Alvarez, Diaz, and prospects. They will have money to patch a couple of significant holes, but they will need 1-2 prospect to pan out into above average regulars or better to be as good as they've been since 2017. By this point we will know if any of their underrated high ceiling prospects (Dezenzo, Loperfido, Corona, Barber, Melton) are going to be core pieces that extend the window.

2027:
Losses: McCormick, Dubon, McCullers, Garcia, Bryan Abreu
Prospects ready: Brice Matthews, Luis Baez, Cam Fisher, Tyler Whitaker, Alonzo Tredwell, Jose Fleury, Carlos Espinosa, others
Arbitration class: Diaz, Leon, Pena, Meyers, Brown, France, Whitley, Bielak
Projections: 37 fWAR, $121M
Summary: This is far enough out that the roster will likely be at least 50% different than what's currently projected. The farm could produce several stars who keep the window fully open, or the team could require a full rebuild at this point. Still, there should be significant payroll flexibilty, so the 2027 outlook should be very similar to 2026; the team will probably be good (80-90 wins) even without big spending, and a rebuild is unlikely to be necessary, but it remains to be seen if they can get enough via player development, trades, extensions, and free agency to keep these teams on par with 2017-2023.

2028:
Losses: Pena, Meyers, Javier
Prospects ready: Kenni Gomez, Camilo Diaz, Chase Jaworsky, Nehomar Ochoa Jr., Anthony Huezo, Eduardo Perez, Esmil Valencia, German Ramirez, Alberto Hernandez, Jake Bloss, many others
Arbitration class: Diaz, Leon, Barber, Dezenzo, Brown, France, Whitley, others
Projections: 34 fWAR, $130M
Summary: The losses on the position player side should be easily absorbed by the farm, as its far enough away to completely turn over the system, and I am fairly optimistic in the farm's ability to replace Javier; they'd still project for 80-90 wins with similar payroll flexibility.