A write-up from the Nets fans perpective. http://www.netsdaily.com/2016/12/3/13827750/motiejunas-offer-reasonable-responsible-but-will-it-work
BimaThug, What are the cap ramifications if we choose not to match? The cap hold goes away, and does that affect our flexibility at the deadline?
Yep. The holding out, the not accepting the QO or the rockets' other offers - was what i referred to and it was very tricky. And devel-ish.
I know. I'm just thinking out loud on worst case scenario on D-Mo having to get into shape by Jan 10th so that the Rockets make an important decision of moving forward. IMO it took Capela all preseason and about 3 weeks of the regular season to build up his endurance to about 24 minutes of play/game. I turned into a pumpkin last night when I posted, but it comes down to me about the decision 5 weeks from now (Jan 10th). D-Mo may take a week before seeing the court and then 3 weeks (if that) to run the court the way the Rockets need him to run the court. That would come down (to me) to a decision of about $5 mil for the games from now to Jan 10th (about what...19 games) with him getting in shape for most of it. Just when D'Antoni has built confidence in Harrell. Rockets just beat The Warriors and Nuggets on the road in back to backs without Nene. Half the people would say sign him......I'm on the side that says Pass on the deal. I don't care for quick important decision and $$$ required based on a few games while possibly disrupting chemistry. i don't like the idea of the Rockets waiving him (after signing him) and a Western Conference contender picking D-Mo up. I'm ok with seeing him with the Nets 2 times a year. I guess the Russian billionaire is still involved....the Nets are bad and will probably keep D-Mo past the waiving deadlines. I wouldn't be surprised if Prokhorov is just helping is just helping out D-Mo get paid and then sets him free to work out a deal with any team. I accept that as well. The health relapse risk still bothers me.
I thought about a sign and trade with Nets, but I think we missed that deadline of Nov 23rd ability to trade said player. I'm no expert on rule of a trade upon signing him during remainder of this season. With reports of the Nov 23rd deadline I never saw it reported or mentioned. My understanding is JJ Redick had the same surgery as D-Mo and the Clippers fans complain that Redick misses a few games a year due to muscle spasms in that area. Only problem I have with that is Redick is a perimeter player. D-Mo will need to pound with the big boys. *Kilpatrick is probably the only player I would want from them. Then the Rockets could trade Tyler Ennis or Bobby Brown later this month.
Based on current figures, if they do NOT match the D-Mo offer sheet, the Rockets would have about $14.4 million or so in cap room if they renounced Nene, Ennis and Brown, declined their option on KJ and waived Wiltjer; however, it is likely that figure will be diminished based on the expected increase in incomplete roster charges under the new/extended CBA. Either that, or they could try to keep everyone, keep the (soon to be increased to around $8M) MLE and (increased to ???) BAE on the books, and operate OVER the cap. If they want to use cap room, then they are a Brewer trade away from opening up ALMOST enough room to sign a max player. They might need to try to engage incumbent teams in S&T scenarios if they want to avoid having to dump additional guys. Bottom line: Assuming you want to keep all the current starters plus Gordon for next season, it'll be tricky to get a max guy this summer regardless of whether they match on D-Mo. But matching on D-Mo will make it a lot more difficult to accomplish that task.
As noted by BimaThug and Ben DuBose on his podcast, this move will severely restrict the Rockets' trade flexibility in the first two years. DuBose thinks the Rockets are more likely to pass on the deal rather than match it. I hope they match it just because DMo would be great insurance for our bigs and a solid addition to the rotation in any case. But if the Rockets were to reject it, I'd understand that too.
It's not devil-ish. It was their only option vs a GM who wasn't going to set a precedent to negotiate with terrorists -- so to speak The Dan Fegan Hold-out Strategy Fegan first did it with Varegao in 2008. So it is not without precedent. It happened twice that year. It's probably something an agent says to an RFA who doesn't get an offer within the first two weeks. They then propose to the player the Fegan "Trick" and it is up to the player to play that card. It means they miss camp and someone gets their spot in the rotation. Questionable time to play that with a new coach and system, and improving rookies. Hold-out wasn't needed if you had offer sheets As for the hold-out being Devil-ish. DMo can just sign an offer sheet in Sept and block all trades the following Summer (per CBA rules). But he failed to get one, like Landry did ... who subsequently was able to block all Summer trades. DMo didn't need to hold-out. The hold-out is to block trades by the incumbent team IF he signs directly with them vs offer sheet. SInce they never got an offer, it shows they were trying to call Morey's bluff, and get Morey to raise his offer to sign directly with the Rockets, since they had no other options. And that failed. Morey let the CBA deadline for trades pass, rather than increase his offer on Nov 23rd -- because he didn't want to negotiate with terrorists. Fegan / Varegao failed too The very same thing happened to Fega/Varegao, and Cavs kept forcing an offer sheet, and they matched it. It was widely regarded as a failed attempt by Fegan to get Cavs to raise their offer. The offer sheet matching version of blocking trades doesn't need a hold-out to prevent Morey from trading him for a year. Timeline Summary: Morey asked DMo to bring him an offer sheet. Thus, he knew Day 1 he'd be giving DMo Veto Power for a Year (per CBA Rules) Unlike Landry, DMo didn't get an offer sheet in Sept that would have blocked all trades for following Summer DMo accepted the Fegan Hold-Out strategy to try to get Morey to raise his offer at Nov 24th trade deadline for new FA signings Morey did not raise his offer, just like Cavs didn't Both Fegan and BJ then had to seek offer sheets, which had very little more money than original offer Both Cavs and Rockets used the strategy to force an offer sheet, but certainly would have preferred the player signs directly with them prior to CBA deadline for trading new free agents It's an old trick to hold-out by Fegan, that Morey certainly understood going in.
Imo, to not match this offer would be totally stupid.... it's a gift of a contract! Reasonable amounts, tons of escape clauses.... the loss of flexibility isn't a good thing... but if opportunities present themselves. there's always maneuvering that can be done... heck, just cause DMo has right to block a trade doesn't necessarily mean he would...
For the Rockets specifically under MDA I actually would add JJ Reddick to this list. While not as talented as those players he could be as valuable to Houston as a few of the players mentioned.
We have no idea what DMo would do. 6 months ago the odds of him sitting out until December to only sign this kind of contract were astronomically low. Moreover if your goal is to move him for cap space you have to move him to a team with cap space. Plus I assume he keeps trade veto power - which someone reduces the value of the asset to whom you're trading to. Basically sure he could be traded but the veto power alone, with DMo, who knows. Now I get the short term option value. But I just think that completely ignores the reality of a team with chemistry in place, with players playing at his position that need PT imo (Dekker, Harrel), the fact you might add him and then just drop him, etc. Again I understand matching... but also understand not and as the gm I wouldn't. I'd love to offer him meaningfully more the first year to remove the trade veto power. Is that allowed?
Bima, I know you don't know for sure, but what is your best "guess" as to if the Rockets will match or not? And what would you do if you were the GM? I'm honestly interested in your opinion based on your knowledge of everything.
Not sure what these odds mean. One thing it means is he never got an offer sheet he liked. How many RFAs went into Sept without getting an offer. Most sign well before that. Then how many let the QO expire to begin a hold out...not very many. Of those, I can name two who went into December off the top of my head. That's not the only option. Trade exception can clear space too. A trade for an expiring contract that you immediately cut can clear space too. You can also use a SnT on the free agent, whereby you trade DMo + other salary Further, but we'd have to double check with BimaThug, a trade can be structured as multiple transactions in one trade. So you might be able to do a SnT with DMo where one transaction (moving DMo for cash) gets you $9m further under the cap, and the second transaction (the target free agent) uses the now bigger cap room. The other team is good to go, since they just treat it as one transaction where by they are dropping in salary. Veto Power is not part of the contract, so it doesn't move with the player. It is a CBA restriction on the matching Team, only. The purpose of it is a Union / Team agreement so teams can't just match to prevent the player from going to a team he wants to play for. They have to show some kind of commitment to keeping him. It also means you can't block a rival team from getting the player, then just turn around and trade him to some team less threatening. It ensures commitment and the right for the player to find a team he wants to play for.
Thanks for info on veto power. Didn't know that. As for the rest, again I know there are possibilities... just complicated ones. If he goal is to back a truck if max contract money day one to Hayward or Blake... helps to have that available right then and there. Which again I know DM could get there... in just not sold on its likelihood or whether DMo is worth it anyway. It'd be nice to have some real solid info on he state if his back for real, his conditioning, and what he's worked on, etc.
Imagine SnT scenario for Blake. DMo would jump all over relinquishing his veto power, if it meant he could replace Blake's spot and play with Chris Paul. That would be rather easy to work out money-wise, as long as we could convince LAC to take something, and not lose Blake for nothing, especially if they want to prevent some other rival with caproom from getting him. And remember, this scenario is when we didn't waive DMo, because he's playing great again. That DMo would be a big value contract that LAC would want vs losing Blake for nothing.
@BimaThug Is this a valid application of trade rules, that I wrote above? Further, but we'd have to double check with BimaThug, a trade can be structured as multiple transactions in one trade. So you might be able to do a SnT with DMo where one transaction (moving DMo for cash) gets you $9m further under the cap, and the second transaction (the target free agent) uses the now bigger cap room. The other team is good to go, since they just treat it as one transaction where by they are dropping in salary. That is, can we produce more caproom during a SnT Simultaneous Trade by configuring it as two separate transaction. One to reduce salary, and the other to use the existing caproom before the trade combined with the new room created by the other transaction of the trade.
I agree.JayZ750: D-Mo veto power restricts the Rockets options. I'm actually hoping the Rockets pull off a Nerlens Noel/Stauskas trade somehow involving Brewer. According to NBA.com/Stats The Rockets 16/17 are currently 4th worst in Opp FG% Less than 5 ft at 61.6%. Rockets are 4th worst with Opp FG% from 20-24 ft at 40.6%. http://stats.nba.com/defensivehub/#!/oppshooting/team/?sort=Less Than 5 ft. FG PCT&dir=1 Stauskas doesn't help much with perimeter defense (but I like him better than Brewer right now), & he shots over 40% from 3 and drives in PnR well enough. We wouldn't need to venture into FA for Redick or Korver. It replaces the need for D-Mo 3's. Nerlens Noel: 14/15 Blk % 5.0%......15/16 Blk% 3.9%. D-Mo: 12/13 Blk% 1.4...13/14 Blk% 1.6%...14/15 Blk% 1.3....15/16 Blk% 0.8. Per basketball-reference.com Question to you Bima Thug. Noel RFA this summer.....can Houston venture into luxury tax to match a large tendered offer from another team? Early bird rights? If it works out like I think it will.....Les Alexander may be willing to enter that territory of paying whatever it takes. Stauskas under contract thru next season. I would be wilingl to mortgage some of the future to make that deal happen. The Rocket can't trade 16/17 1st rd pick. *Sidenote. I understand stats tend to be better at home vs the road (Rockets 14 out of first 20 games on the road). Our defensive stats can/should improve. But the elite teams on defense run players off the 3-pt line and channel them into the most least-efficient shot in basketball (mid-range shot) by having a shot blocker waiting. Capela doesn't give you 48-minutes of above the rim protection. I like Harrell; but Capela/Noel is pretty near elite. I can see Noel doing the things Capela is doing in D'Antoni's scheme.
A top heavy 4 year contract with the last 2 years non-guaranteed? Granted his back surgery for his herniated disk(?) was pretty significant, I think that's pretty reasonable. Especially given that if Dmo averages anything close to 8-10pts/5rebs per 20 minutes a game I'd be stoked. He would definitely do well at the PF/C position, plays effective D, passes and isn't terrible at FT's. Plus he's capable of shooting 3's and has a pretty effective post game. Only thing is.. who to cut to make room. Maybe the Rockets are looking for a trade?
Bobby Brown and Wiltjer have non guaranteed contracts. Teams would pick up Wiltjer in a heart beat. Spurs, Cavs, Warriors, etc would love a 6'10" guy that shoots lights out from 2-3 ft beyond 3-point line. Bobby Brown is a friend of Harden's. Business is business.
