Ok, Votto out. I wanted a massive deal last offseason with Freeeman and Teheran coming this way. That's not happening outside of fantasy land. I really, really want Archer. Have for a year or so.
Rays have no chance in that division. I think they'll put him on the market prior to the deadline. I'm still not opposed to Quintana because I think he'll turn it around but I wouldn't give up multiple top guys for him. Archer should be the priority. Make it happen, Jeff. Trade anyone but Tucker. Giving up quality young pitching prospects in bulk will hurt but make that a focus in the upcoming draft with 5 picks in the top 100. That will lessen the eventual pain.
True and Hosmer's defense is overrated. But he does bring playoff experience and more with the bat. He's also a lefty. I'd only be for it if he was cheap and Yuli has a sub-.700 ops near the deadline.
I would basically be willing to give up any prospects to get Archer. Yes, that means a package built around Tucker AND Martes, plus 1-2 other top guys. Ervin Santana would be my fallback, assuming the price would be low enough to leave Martes, Tucker, Perez, and Whitley off the table. I like the ideas of Stroman and Justin Wilson. Adding an elite lefty reliever would be good but I don't see any that wouldn't be overpriced.
Besides for big names, only guy I like for pitching that I think may be traded. Yuli and Aoki seem only areas in field to consider. For bullpen, doubt Astros get anyone other than a lefty. I think Astros have a lot they can trade from farm without hurting flow to Astros. That said, prospects they have seem to be more like guys traded for average players. Expect Astros get a lefty reliever. Would prefer Archer, but think someone like Stroman is more in their price range. That said, expect one other deal...just don't know where. If not apparent, think Astros will be highly active at deadline and may have to sell a couple players to open up room.
Olney mentioned Gerrit Cole as a potential Astros' target. Makes sense but I don't see Pittsburgh necessarily selling. They're only 6 out of the division and a lot can happen between now and then. But if they do sell I could definitely see Cole making a lot of sense. A real ace under control for 2 more seasons. He'd be expensive for sure, not even starting the conversation without including Tucker.
On Pirates, it is more than being 6 out. They have everyone in division ahead of them and a couple of those teams are very good. When Cubs and Cards play, one of them has to win.
A Cole trade would look a lot like the Chris Sale trade, with a slightly lower return. I think Tucker, Martes, Cameron, and an arm like Hector Perez would be very close. Tucker is not on the level of Moncada, but that difference probably represents the difference between Sale and Cole. Martes is as good of a prospect as Kopech, and Cameron/Perez is on par with Diaz/Basabe. That's a ton to give up, but a rotation of Keuchel, McCullers, Cole, McHugh, and Morton would be pretty salty this year and next. And it'd free them up to flip Musgrove for a lefty reliever or stash him as AAA depth.
Sean Doolittle as the LH reliever if the shoulder checks out. I like the Justin Wilson suggestion. On board with Archer as TOR trade but I'd really like to hold onto Tucker. Is Gerrit Cole really available; I doubt it.
I would not use a Dombrowski trade as a template for a Luhnow trade or for most GMs for that matter. Dombrowski knows he's got financial backing to get more talent if need be which allows him to value future WAR less than most others. Also, his teams typically scout MLB very well. In other words, he doesn't get many lemons in trades which makes it easier for him to take risks for short term. On Cole specifically, just haven't paid much attention to Pirates so don't know what he's worth...just wouldn't try to use that trade as a template.
I see your point, but if Cole is available, Houston will be bidding against the Dodgers and Yankees, among others. They're going to be up against teams with resources comparable to Boston. Luhnow may bow out, but he's not going to get Cole for comparatively less than what Sale cost just because he's not Dombrowksi.
Dodgers and Yankees aren't Dombrowski either. While they have resources, they don't appear to significantly value future WAR differently. More importantly, they aren't going to outbid themselves to pay more just because they can. They know there are plenty of players that can help them. Long term, they are much scarier franchises as teams with resources that are keeping their top talent. Quintana is a White Sox almost solely because they wanted a Sale like deal. Yankees were interested, but nothing happened.
Cole wouldn't cost nearly what Sale did. Cole isnt as dominant, has health issues. Also I think he would cost less than Archer because he has two years less of control.
Right. It's a sliding scale as far as value. I've read a couple of articles saying there might actually be a glut of pitching on the market this summer? CBA related? You know anything about that? Just trade for somebody, eventually, and let's go kick the **** out of everyone.
