Turnovers as a sign of improvement

The lack of Rockets turnovers shows their lack of improvement.
Wait wait wait... I know this sounds crazy, but hear me out.

Intro
I was at the last two games, and I've watched many a Rockets game this season. And what I've seen is a lazy, stodgy offense. I think we've all noticed that the Rockets are playing with last year's offense but without last year's defense.
Rick Adelman is attempting to install a new offense to this team. It's an offense that requires constant motion, something this current team is not accustomed to. It requires slashers who can move without the ball and always be aware of their surroundings. But that really doesn't sound a heck of a lot like the Rockets. Let's move down the roster, shall we?

• Yao Ming - Slow but great court vision. Can work in Adelman's system.
• Tracy McGrady - Does not run the break. Rarely drives. Decent fit.
• Bonzi Wells - Mediocre jump shooter but great finisher. Great fit.
• Rafer Alston - Mediocre jump shooter and mediocre finisher. That floater makes me cringe. But he has good knowledge of the game. Best PG we've got.
• Steve Francis - Can slash with the best of 'em. Great finisher but needs the ball to be effective. Can fit.
• Shane Battier - Great team defender, good jump shooter from the corners. High basketball IQ but lousy finisher. Decent baby hook. Can fit.
• Mike James - Usually good jump shooter. Decent finisher. Lousy year from him. Possible good fit. Clutch is his #1 fan.
• Luis Scola - Unpredictable. Looks great one game but lousy the next. But he CAN run the floor. No better than Hayes for the system.
• Chuck Hayes - Excellent rebounder. Aggressive defender. Decent reverse layup. Can pass. Good fit. Would be the best PF we have if he could finish. Oh my gosh, did anyone else just see Chuck shoot FTs?
• Kirk Snyder - The most athletic player on the team. Need to see more of him to get better picture.
• Luther Head - Can't layup his way out of a paper bag. But that guy can SHOOT. Usually. Should be our Peja.
• Dikembe Mutombo - Who wants to sex him? We know what he can do now, and fit in Adelman's system is not it.
• Aaron Brooks - Looked great preseason but hasn't made the most of his minutes during the season. Fast as heck. Good passer too. He could be a great fit.
• Carl Landry - Won't play.
• Steve Novak - Won't play.

On paper, this team can work in the Princeton-based Adelman system. Ralston can facilitate the offense. Yao can pass and play well from the high post. Chuck can pass.

Why isn't the offense working?

• Ralston and Battier are under their career avg fg%
• T-Mac has been injured. He doesn't attack the basket.
• Yao can't run.
• No one can hit free throws

But most importantly

• They're not even trying to implement the offense

As I said earlier, they've been essentially running last year's offense (with a few exceptions). Magic just mentioned that the Rockets are better when either Tracy or Yao is out of the game. I can't disagree with him. This team is REALLY good when they move the ball around. But Mac just isn't doing it this season. And Yao isn't either. I'm not saying we should trade one of 'em, but I AM saying we need more of an effort.

So why are turnovers good now?
Turnovers are good because it shows the team is learning the offense. The Rockets only have .6 turnovers per game more than last season. And seeing as the offense looks remarkably similar, this loverly number just shows the Rockets are being outplayed. And on the few occasions the Rockets HAVE gotten the offense going the way it's supposed to be played, they make a bunch of extra turnovers. When players aren't expecting to see the ball in their hands, they fumble it. But as the ball is there more and more, they learn what to expect. But remember that this doesn't mean all turnovers are good; just like cholesterol, there are good and bad turnovers.

How does the team improve?
Aside from Ralston (sigh), the Rockets don't have another PG capable of stepping up and leading this offense. MJ is more of a 2 guard, and Steve is well-known for making a bunch of bad turnovers. Brooks is currently just too young; he needs experience in the league first (but that's not to say he couldn't do it). And this team just needs to straight up keep the motion in the offense every night no matter how bad it gets. Under no circumstances should they ever allow themselves to fall back into last year's offense.

So what do I watch for?
I'm trying to keep sabermetrics to a minimum here (but I'll get into it if anyone actually reads this whole freakin' post and wants it). But keep an eye on both turnovers and the assist/turnover ratio. Adelman's system would account for more assists for the whole team. As such, the ratio should remain relatively constant as turnovers rise. Eventually, turnovers will fall as the team stops making turnovers that come from not knowing the offense (i.e. not catching the ball on a cut to the basket). As the assist/turnover ratio rises, you have a good indication the team is starting to learn this offense. Compare this ratio to last year's, and make sure when you watch that they're not just running last year's offense better.

So that's my two cents. This will either make perfect sense or suck horribly, but I figured I should put my butt on the line and say what I was thinking. If I didn't come across clearly enough, lemme know and I'll try to explain myself. And, please, some criticism would be great. I'm sure there are way more knowledgeable people on this board than me.

 

lol. I didn't hear that one. I was a big MJ supporter when he came here too. But, man oh man, he has NOT been performing.