okay managed to crunch some figures up till end of Jan 13 (for last season) - here are the Rank Values of the 30 teams (please note this is works in progress and experimental but comments and feedback are welcomed). While working through this realized that RV swings quite drastically as the games progressed - in the end I might have to report an RV range of values or an average with a +/- SD. Teams not arranged in ranking order but by alphabetical code Team - RV ATL - 1243 BKN - 1237 BOS - 1299 CHA - 1134 CHI - 1395 CLE - 1301 DAL - 1288 DEN - 1432 DET - 1200 GSW - 1407 HOU - 1314 IND - 1296 LAC - 1296 LAL - 1288 MEM - 1277 MIA - 1331 MIL - 1308 MIN - 1091 NOH - 1225 NYK - 1293 OKC - 1368 ORL - 1095 PHI - 1278 PHX - 1323 POR -1312 SAC - 1200 SAS - 1482 TOR - 1184 UTA - 1292 WAS - 1226
Not a dumb question at all Voice of Aus, I just managed to compute the figures for last season (starting all teams at 1271 and see what's the score like at the end of the season - yeah, it's a long and tedious process and I could ony do this part time (have a day job to take care of).... but here's how the result went - surprising to me but I'd give my interpretation of it. Note: (I could only count 81 games for BOS and IND but I think by and large the Rank Values are a good reflection of where teams stood against each other for last season) (1) MIA 1392 ± 89 (E1) (2) SAS 1379 ± 58 (W1) (3) OKC 1378 ± 59 (W2) (4) DEN 1356 ± 89 (W3) (5) LAC 1355 ± 77 (W4) (6) MEM 1351 ± 70 (W5) (7) NYK 1345 ± 74 (E2) (8) IND 1314 ± 55 (E3) (9) GSW 1308 ± 67 (W6) (10) HOU 1301 ± 64 (W7) (11) DAL 1298 ± 48 (W8) (12) CHI 1293 ± 52 (E4) (13) LAL 1289 ± 61 (W9) (14) BKN 1285 ± 59 (E5) (15) UTA 1277 ± 53 (W10) (16) ATL 1275 ± 54 (E6) (16) BOS 1275 ± 59 (E6) (18) MIL 1261 ± 53 (E8) (19) TOR 1243 ± 69 (E9) (20) POR 1237 ± 66 (W11) (21) NOH 1232 ± 67 (W12) (22) SAC 1227 ± 52 (W13) (23) PHI 1223 ± 72 (E10) (24) MIN 1222 ± 62 (W14) (24) WAS 1222 ± 78 (E11) (26) DET 1217 ± 81 (E12) (27) PHX 1205 ± 59 (W15) (28) CLE 1196 ± 76 (E13) (29) ORL 1168 ± 80 (E14) (30) CHA 1158 ± 72 (E15) So what can we glean from these? (my interpretation): (1) NBA teams are not that far apart in terms of the playing levels of the teams - the system I was using is a closed ranking system with a base RV of 82 between levels - I assumed there were 30 different levels ranging from 82 (lowest RV score) up till 2460 (highest possible RV score). Starting all teams at 1271 (the median point), we ended up with a range of averages that went from 1158 to 1392 or about RV difference of 234 (or 2.8 levels - to make it simpler we have 3 levels of teams roughly.) This may be a result of the way NBA operates - allowing the weaker teams to draw on better new talents by giving them first pickings. For those interested, based on this set of scores the bottom level teams would be teams scoring RV 1240 and below and the top level teams (8 of them) are teams scoring RV 1310 and above. Our Rockets were high-mid-level team (just beneath GSW). (2) Whilst going through this exercise, I noticed the swings of the RV values game to game - so I don't think it's meaningful to update the interim RV values (as they obviously goes up when the team wins and come down again when the team loses). I think it would be more meaningful to compare these Season to Season. If we compare our Rockets RV for this season versus last - it would tell us if we had actually improved our team. (3) The other interesting information is estimating the difference in levels between the East and West conferences - we all know the Western conference is tougher than the East - but no one could put their finger on how tough it actually was..... well if we averaged the averages of E vs W teams - we get a RVW of 1294 versus RVE of 1258 (or about only 0.44 level difference) - that doesn't seem to be much - but nearly half a level difference in the NBA that only has 2.8 levels of difference translate to about a 15.7% difference - so I'd stick out my neck and say that the Western Conference was about 16% harder to play as compared to the Eastern Conference for last season. It will be interesting to see if this changes after all the swaps the teams have made for this season. In the mean time, let's hope our Rockets will do well this coming season, I am really looking forward to seeing how much improved the team is as compared to last season! Go Rockets!
Okay finally all teams have completed at least 5 games - here are the RV (averaged) values for the 30 NBA teams - please note of course Rockets rank would have dropped by now since our poor performance for the last 2 games: Rank (after first 5 games): Pacers - 1361 Rockets - 1342 Thunder - 1327 Warriors - 1324 76ers - 1318 Spurs - 1316 Clippers - 1316 Mavs - 1308 Suns - 1300 Magic - 1296 Blazers - 1284 Wolves - 1282 Pistons - 1278 Knicks - 1271 Lakers - 1269 Heat - 1269 Cavs - 1266 Raptors - 1259 Bulls - 1258 Nets - 1255 Bucks - 1249 Hawks - 1248 Pelicans - 1241 Grizzlies - 1239 Bobcats - 1236 Kings - 1231 Wizards - 1221 Nuggets - 1205 Jazz - 1184 Celtics - 1184 While we started great - it seems the team has hit a snag -our offense does not seem to be flowing... let's hope the rockets recover and pick up their game from hereon.... go rockets!
Very interesting. I've never seen ELO being applied to NBA rankings but I see few reasons why it wouldn't work. Looking forward to more updates, OP.
It's gotta be a joke!!1!1 When you're three best players are all white guys, you can't possibly dream about playoffs!!!!!!1!!!!!!111!!!
Okay now that Rockets have completed 10 games I will report the averaged RV values for teams (I don't care about the rest of the teams really but they are in there for a rough comparison purpose - the RV values are averaged up to Games completed on 15 Nov 2013). Pacers 1389 Spurs 1368 Clippers 1326 Thunder 1318 Blazers 1318 Warriors 1316 Suns 1302 Rockets 1301 Mavs 1301 Heat 1296 Lakers 1288 Magic 1280 Knicks 1278 76ers 1277 Bulls 1273 Wolves 1269 Hawks 1262 Pistons 1256 Pelicans 1248 Grizzlies 1247 Raptors 1244 Nets 1240 Celtics 1238 Wizards 1238 Bobcats 1233 Nuggets 1231 Cavs 1228 Bucks 1223 Kings 1211 Jazz 1145 I don't think we are too shabby still in the top 8 teams at the start of season.... now that TT is no longer in the pipeline - maybe the team will settle down to more regular playing behavior and hopefully consolidate our position as one of the potential challengers for the crown. Go Rockets!
An update since we have data of all teams completing 10 games - here are the averaged RV values of teams after 10 Games: IND 1387 SAS 1368 LAC 1333 POR 1322 GSW 1319 OKC 1314 MIA 1305 DAL 1303 CHI 1303 HOU 1301 PHX 1292 LAL 1288 PHI 1277 ORL 1275 MIN 1269 ATL 1268 NYK 1264 MEM 1252 DET 1249 NOP 1245 TOR 1244 BOS 1238 WAS 1237 CHA 1235 DEN 1235 BKN 1233 CLE 1228 MIL 1207 SAc 1206 UTA 1145 Sad that Rockets is only 10th (but we are still 7th in the West) - hopefully we do better. Go Rockets!
Update - after Rockets completed their 15th Game (a comparison of averaged RV of the other teams - please note not all teams have finished 15 games yet and some were over). Averaged RV values of teams for games up to 25 Nov 2013: SAS - 1393 IND - 1376 POR - 1349 MIA - 1338 LAC - 1334 OKC - 1323 GSW - 1320 DAL - 1317 HOU - 1315 CHI - 1294 LAL - 1289 ATL - 1279 MEM - 1276 PHX - 1273 DEN - 1263 TOR - 1261 ORL - 1258 MIN - 1256 NYK - 1248 NOP - 1246 WAS - 1245 DET - 1241 CHA - 1233 PHI - 1230 BOS - 1227 BKN - 1211 SAC - 1211 CLE - 1210 MIL - 1186 UTA - 1133 Okay, Rockets are still hanging in the top 8 teams so far - Go Rockets!!!
Update after Rockets have completed at least 20 games (the rest may or may not have caught up to the number of games) - but here's how we stand against them in terms of RV scores: SAS - 1394 IND - 1380 POR - 1368 MIA - 1356 OKC - 1350 HOU - 1330 LAC 1328 GSW - 1318 DAL - 1306 DEN - 1301 LAL - 1293 CHI - 1284 MEM - 1278 PHX - 1278 WAS - 1266 ATL - 1265 TOR - 1255 MIN - 1248 ORL - 1243 NOP - 1238 DET - 1237 BOS - 1231 NYK - 1230 CHA - 1224 SAC - 1213 CLE - 1205 BKN - 1204 PHI - 1196 MIL - 1172 UTA - 1150 Cool that we have improve to 6th - let's see if Rockets can hold up their performance and be consistent throughout the season. Go Rockets!!!
Interesting work, and its amusing to me that the suns are so high considering the tanking. But then, dragic and bledsoe. A thought, I wonder if in the end you might be able to retroactively extract home court advantage #'s from utah and denvers numbers, comparing home/away splits against those of neutral site locations.
Interesting idea just a word - my problem would be trying to do this - will have to go back and re-calculate the split and may have to treat each team with 2 sets of RVs (Home and Away) - maybe during the lull of season end may go back and take a look at it. At the moment, I am late just crunching current figures (still trying to catch up at Players' RVs) - will be posting Rockets RV after 25 Games in the next post.
Update - after Rocket's 25th game, the RV standings are: SAS - 1390 IND - 1385 POR - 1379 OKC - 1374 MIA - 1355 HOU - 1332 LAC - 1316 GSW - 1311 DAL - 1303 DEN - 1302 PHX - 1288 LAL - 1283 ATL - 1267 WAS - 1264 CHI - 1263 MEM - 1263 TOR - 1256 MIN - 1251 DET - 1246 BOS - 1239 NOP - 1237 NYK - 1227 ORL - 1225 CLE - 1222 SAC - 1221 CHA - 1219 BKN - 1214 UTA - 1172 PHI - 1169 MIL - 1167
Update - after Rocket's 30th game - here are current RV standings: OKC - 1390 SAS - 1390 IND - 1382 POR - 1378 MIA - 1365 HOU - 1327 LAC - 1322 GSW - 1312 PHX - 1300 DAL - 1299 DEN - 1296 ATl - 1275 LAL - 1274 WAS - 1270 DET - 1261 TOR - 1261 MIN - 1255 MEM - 1248 BOS - 1243 CHI -1242 NOP - 1229 CHA - 1224 CLE - 1219 SAC - 1217 ORl - 1215 NYK - 1214 BKN - 1211 UTA - 1192 MIL - 1172 PHI - 1158
Update - after Rocket's 35th Game the RV scores of teams are as follows (please note not all teams have completed 35 games yet): I think we are still holding out fine - if our players can improve their plays - we are very close towards contending (if we can keep our core players intact, next season looks really promising). OKC - 1392 SAS - 1388 IND - 1382 MIA - 1367 POR - 1367 GSW - 1327 HOU - 1327 LAC - 1326 PHX - 1307 DAL - 1304 TOR - 1278 ATL - 1276 WAS - 1275 DEN - 1274 MIN - 1265 LAL - 1257 DET - 1255 MEM - 1245 CHI - 1241 BOS - 1238 NOP - 1236 CHA - 1224 SAC - 1217 CLE - 1215 ORL - 1214 BKN - 1210 NYK - 1205 UTA - 1204 MIL - 1173 PHI - 1158
Update after Rockets 40th game (i.e. up till Jan 15 2014) - the RV rankings of teams are: SAS - 1387 IND - 1382 OKC - 1377 MIA - 1369 POR - 1353 GSW - 1337 LAC - 1329 HOU - 1325 PHX - 1303 DAL - 1300 TOR - 1291 WAS - 1281 ATL - 1274 DEN - 1273 MIN - 1269 MEM - 1258 CHI - 1255 DET - 1243 LAL - 1233 NOP - 1229 BKN - 1227 SAC - 1224 NYK - 1222 CHA - 1220 BOS - 1218 CLE - 1217 UTA - 1213 ORL - 1202 MIL - 1168 PHI - 1165 About halfway through the season, rockets is hovering around as a top 8 team in the whole league - not too shabby. However, if we want to contend, we will still need SAS, IND, OKC and MIA which are currentlly the top 4 teams. If we view that a differential of 82 is one rank different, rockets need to be playing one rank higher than what we are doing now. So - it confirms what some folks have been asking for - maybe just one more additional piece could push us there or the other alternative is simply let the team grow (our players are young). So far, it just looks like we are just outside the contenders bracket, but we are close....... Go Rockets!
Update - after Rocket's 45th game, the RV standing of teams are: IND - 1386 SAS - 1383 OKC - 1379 MIA - 1359 POR - 1351 LAC - 1333 GSW - 1332 HOU - 1324 PHX - 1301 DAL - 1299 TOR - 1289 WAS - 1286 ATL - 1275 MIN - 1271 DEN - 1269 MEM - 1267 CHI - 1256 BKN - 1242 DET - 1240 SAC - 1231 LAL - 1228 CHA - 1227 NOP - 1225 NYK - 1220 CLE - 1219 UTA - 1216 BOS - 1204 ORL - 1196 PHI - 1166 MIL - 1165 We are still around 8th in the league... sad that we lost today, hopefully we can get one back tomorrow against the grizzlies..... Go Rockets!
Update - after Rocket's 50th game, the standings by RV is: OKC - 1388 IND - 1376 SAS - 1371 MIA - 1359 POR - 1348 LAC - 1336 GSW - 1331 HOU - 1327 PHX - 1307 DAL - 1297 TOR - 1294 WAS - 1293 MEM - 1290 ATL - 1278 MIN - 1277 DEN - 1270 CHI - 1256 BKN - 1250 CHA - 1233 DET - 1233 NOP - 1232 SAC - 1229 UTA - 1222 NYK - 1221 LAL - 1217 CLE - 1211 BOS - 1194 ORL - 1186 PHI - 1162 MIL - 1157 Still holding out at 8th but we are closing in on GSW (seem to be on a decline).
The easiest way to rank teams throughout the season is to use Road Wins vs Home Losses. It is the only ranking that is so simple, yet mathematically guaranteed to equal final rankings at the end of the season. It is the only indicator of rank that converges on real rankings at the end of the season. Why use anything else? This stat has us 5th - 7th in the West (GSW and MEM are tied with us) and show the Clippers are under ranked and Portland over ranked. LAC are 2nd in the West. And I can check this in seconds by looking at the standings every day. So simple
I don't dispute what you say heypartner, by the way, the rankings tally that way because that's how the league is using to rank the teams! From the way I look it, using the scoring matrix allows some further details which doesn't surface from the pure results ranking (which is what W/L) is about. One of those things is to gauge if the team is underperforming/overperforming. Another thing that using a scoring method help is to gauge what the relative difference in standards is between East and West - it helps to give a value of how different the standards are rather than the simple thing we know now that the Western conference is tougher than the Eastern conference. I am also trying to ascertain if it can be useful for teams to gauge how far off they are from making to certain spots (i.e. help them gauge if they should/should not acquire a player - and after acquiring said player, did it really helped them?)
