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[TrueHoop] How advanced stats changed Bosh's game

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by HMMMHMM, Feb 10, 2011.

  1. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Contributing Member

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    [rquoter]MIAMI -- After a recent practice, Chris Bosh explained why you’re seeing him set up on the right side of the offense more this season.

    “They took my numbers from last year and [they said] I sucked on the left side,” Bosh said with a smile.

    “So they said, ‘Stay over there.’”

    Welcome to the NBA in the 21st century, Chris.

    When the Big Three joined forces this summer, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra got up to speed by spending hours upon hours studying film on his new star players just like any other coach would. But in Spoelstra’s world, scouting is just one valuable piece of the information puzzle. The 40-year-old gets his edge by blending analytics with his sharp scouting eye.

    While doing his homework on Bosh, his newest $110 million power forward, Spoelstra noticed something in the data: Bosh was more effective on the right side than on the left. It was a simple observation but one that would eventually send ripple effects through the team. Spoelstra knew Bosh could play on the left block, but the third-year coach also understood the value of Bosh's anchoring the Heat’s offensive sets on the right side where he could play to his strengths.

    But how would the third-year coach convince his five-time All-Star to essentially give up one side of the court?

    He set up meeting and showed him the hard evidence.

    “Stats are stats, man,” Bosh laughed. “I couldn’t say anything. I was like, 'I can post up over there [on the left side].' They said, 'Well, this says you can, but it's not the same [as the right side].'"

    Bosh obliged.

    “I didn’t fight it. I like getting the ball in the post so to keep that going, I just said ‘Coach, that’s fine.’”

    Spoelstra says this isn’t the first time he’s used advanced stats to organize his offense. He did it last season with Jermaine O’Neal, sending the big man to the left side of the floor after seeing the numbers.

    What numbers does Spoelstra use?

    “We use a little bit of Synergy and then we charted it out on our own,” Spoelstra said. “I have these moles in the dungeon -- video guys -- all they do is chart.”

    Synergy -- or Synergy Sports Technology if you prefer to call it by its full name -- is a company that supplies a mammoth analytics warehouse containing video and advanced stats to those who can afford the six-figure price tag. And not just elementary highlights and box score stats, mind you. You can find every video clip of every play in the NBA dating back to as far as 2005 -- preseason, regular season and playoffs. Each video is clipped and charted as a play type and then entered into the database. Recently, Synergy has ventured into men’s and women’s college basketball as well as international ball.

    Curious how many points the Heat have allowed on pick-and-rolls from the left side this season? Synergy has numbers -- and the film. Say you want to find out how efficient the Heat are out of timeouts. Synergy has that, too. It’s a treasure chest of basketball.

    Data from Synergy tells us that Bosh did, in fact, perform better on the right side of the court last season in Toronto, especially in isolation situations. When Bosh attacked from the left in isolation, he scored 59 points on his 80 tries -- and that includes free throws, not just field goal attempts. Synergy calculates his efficiency on left-side isolations to be .738 points per play, which ranked 43rd among 48 qualifiers last season. Not so good.

    But on the right side, he was much more effective. He scored 86 points on 86 right-side isolations, nearly 25 percent better than on the left side. And on post-ups? Bosh was better from the right side as well, though the contrast is not quite as dramatic as it is for isolations.

    “If you look at the numbers, he’s pretty consistent, he’s a little better on the right side, but not by a glaring amount,” Spoelstra said. “It just allowed us to be a little bit more consistent for everybody else to know where we are starting the offense.”

    Watch the Heat run their sets and you’ll notice that Bosh typically positions himself on the right elbow. The Heat initiate their offense by dumping the ball into Bosh and running James and Wade in opposite directions off the ball. As an able passer, nearly automatic midrange shooter and dribble attacker, Bosh is a lethal triple-threat from the elbow. What transpires thereafter usually ends up as a pick-your-poison dilemma for the defense -- a jumper from Bosh, a James pick-and-roll with Bosh on the wing, or a cut from Wade. But everything begins with Bosh on the right side.

    And the numbers bear this out. When we look at the Synergy data, we find that Bosh has tallied twice as many post-ups from the right block (138 plays) as the left block (66 plays). And in isolations, Bosh has registered 65 percent more plays on the right side of the floor than on the left.

    Spoelstra saw something on a spreadsheet and managed to successfully apply it to the hardwood.

    Getting players to respond to analytically-driven strategies is no easy task. Teams all across the league have been trying to find the most effective way of deploying the digits.

    Since 2004, Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey helps to organize the annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, a get-together of some of the brightest minds to discuss, among other things, the convergence of numbers and sports. Attended by hundreds of brainiacs, the conference was affectionately dubbed “Dorkapalooza” by ESPN.com’s Bill Simmons -- and with good reason.

    Last year’s panel of basketball analytics was manned by some of the rock stars of the basketball stat-head community including Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban, Boston Celtics assistant general manager Mike Zarren, former director of quantitative analysis for the Denver Nuggets (now employed by ESPN) Dean Oliver, ESPN.com’s John Hollinger, and former Portland Trail Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard. It was a fascinating discussion that centered on the power of data analysis in basketball.

    But the panelists also paid considerable lip service to the limitations of data analysis.

    More specifically, the front office members voiced their difficulties in application. As they pointed out, it’s one thing to crunch the data on the computer, but another to actually implement it on the court. How do you tell an NBA player about his points per possession from the various locations inside the arc?

    Spoelstra says he occasionally talks about stats with his players, but he’s careful not to overwhelm them.

    “I don’t beat them over the head with it,” Spoelstra said. “You can’t make it a math class. I have mountains of data and you try to digest it all into an amount that they can handle. When it can make a point, yeah, I bring it up.”

    Some players are receptive to the concepts of advanced statistics. In casual conversation a couple weeks ago, Heat forward James Jones mentioned his adjusted field goal percentage, which is a fairly new metric that weights 3-point shots heavier than the standard field goal percentage. For sharpshooters like Jones, adjusted field goal percentage offers a truer measure of their talents. Others check the numbers to confirm their own beliefs or learn more about their game.

    “With Dwyane [Wade], certain numbers will strike his interest,” Spoelstra said. “Other times it will be too much. He’ll let you know. You get to know players after a period of time.”

    A lot of time has passed since Spoelstra became part of the Heat organization. Fifteen years ago, Spoelstra joined the coaching staff as a video coordinator. Since then, he has climbed every step of the ladder and created some new ones too.

    Before being promoted to the head coaching position ahead of the 2008-09 season, Spoelstra was an assistant coach and director of scouting for the team, but also helped to build an internal advanced statistics database for then-head coach Pat Riley.

    “As an assistant, I used numbers quite a bit for my reports for Pat,” Spoelstra said. “With Pat, you could never give him too many numbers. He could always digest it. And then when you start working with players, you tell them, ‘Hey, you happen to be really good here, struggling a bit here. Let’s work on this.’ And then you give them a number and they’re surprised.”

    Spoelstra is not just a stat-head, even though he’ll routinely drop references to his team’s efficiency numbers. He’s not just a gym rat, although he has been credited with revamping Wade’s shooting stroke. He’s not just a savvy communicator, despite convincing three alpha-dogs to play as one. He’s all of the above.

    Spoelstra has worn nearly a dozen hats in the Heat organization, and his treatment of Bosh provides a crystal-clear window into his comprehensive preparation as a coach. He consulted the analytics, watched endless film, and then used the acquired information to build the X’s and O’s infrastructure of the team. Not many coaches can do that.

    But that numbers-and-nuance approach may be what it takes for a 40-year-old to lead an unprecedented combination of talent and ego to greatness.[/rquoter]

    http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/mi...6/how-advanced-stats-changed-chris-boshs-game
     
  2. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    What is this newfangled thing called statistics you speak of? This could revolutionize sports!! Somebody name Spoelstra coach of the year, stat! :rolleyes:
     
  3. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Contributing Member

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    I thought the article was interesting.
    Nobody said that it's anything new and while Spoelstra certainly isn't the only coach to use advanced stats, I'd say it's a save bet that many coaches don't.
     
  4. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    When Tom Landry first used computer to aid his coaching, people thought it was just some gimmick.

    There will always be some "old school" folks that scoff at using technological methods to improve performance.
     
  5. Rockets1988-

    Rockets1988- Member

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    That was an interesting article. This type of stuff regarding basketball is something i crave. I would totally LOVE to join a group like Synergy and work for them. On a side note, i'd like to see Battiers 3pt numbers in the corners compared to 3 pters from everywhere else.
     
  6. HMMMHMM

    HMMMHMM Contributing Member

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    It's from last year and a little more than just the corners, but pretty good stuff nonetheless.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. MikeMania

    MikeMania Member

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    Nice info. Interesting he didn't even attempt a shot from that area the entire season.
     
  8. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    I don't know. I find it hard to believe that there are any NBA organizations out there that don't have access to and utilize - though of course to varying degrees - this type of statistical data.

    I probably over-criticized as an immediate reaction because of the continuous Heat love fest over at ESPN, but there is definitely some of that in the article.
     
  9. delta69er

    delta69er Member

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    stastastastastatistics?
     
  10. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Spoestra treats players as stats instead of HUMAN BEINGS!
     
    1 person likes this.
  11. Steve_Francis_rules

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    That's really impressive that Battier managed to shoot all those corner threes without ever having his toe on the line.
     
  12. SunsRocketsfan

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    its cause he doesnt even bother moving. He just camps out in the corner and disappears or zones out .. he's so intangible he's invisible..

    oh btw battier sucks
     
  13. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    So Bosh can't turn left. Whatever. Gasoline fight!
     
  14. Pieman2005

    Pieman2005 Member

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  15. Commodore

    Commodore Contributing Member

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    that's an embarrassingly simple use of analytics
     
  16. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    Interesting . . . .I think if Mike Jordon or Hakeem
    got this information . . .
    they would spend the summer tightening up their Left side game

    some folx improve
    others settle

    Now, bosh take you b*tch*ss to the right side, Punk!

    Rocket River
     
  17. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    With the way posters insult moneyball, they make it seem like only the Rockets use advanced stats and that the rest of the league has gotten by without it. They say moneyball doesn't work and point to the Celtics, Lakers, and Spurs as successes and the Rockets as failures of using advanced statistics.
     
  18. Jet036

    Jet036 Member

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    Having his toe on the line is probably what accounted for his other mid-range shot attempts. He just got lucky from that one area. I can't believe that he only had 10 mid-range attempts all season (especially since some of those mid-rangers were probably only recorded because his toe was on the line 3pt line).

    BTW, what website did you get that info from?
     
  19. TheFreak

    TheFreak Contributing Member

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    I don't think these are very advanced. I'm pretty sure the Rockets have been doing stuff like this since the Rudy days.
     
  20. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Rudy has actually been into advanced stats (synergy-like video technology) for a long time, from what I've heard.

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/features/1998/weekly/980601/cyberscouting.html

    He and his son do statistical reporting for the Lakers too.
     
    #20 durvasa, Feb 11, 2011
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2011

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