1999-2001 averages LH 738 AB, .252 avg/.322 obp/.388 slg RH 191 AB, .262 avg/.325 obp/.492 slg Also, 13 E's in 280 chances at SS & 12 E's in 300 chances at 3rd. Not a butcher, but definitely not starter (or late-inning defensive replacement) material. Dunno about "killed", but he is definitely better hitting righty, although the sample size is pretty small. Zaun, Merced & Viz all seem to be better ph candidates from the LH side. He does have some pop as a righty, & that (assuming Lane & Ginter don't make the team) looks to be more of a need for us. Not. Gonna. Happen.
Devil's Advocate He's only been in the bigs for three years. He came up and played SS originally and promtly made 10 errors in 140 chances. His last 140 chances at ss, 3 errors. Then moved to 3rd base in 2nd season. He promptly makes 6 errors in 125 chances. 3rd season, makes 6 errors again at 3rd, but in 175 chances. These numbers don't factor in range and with such a small sampling isn't conclusive. Truby made 20 errors in less chances at 3rd.
Not. Gonna. Happen. While I truly appreciate your use. of. periods. to. make. your. point... Morgan Ensberg is a 26 year old rookie with zero ML experience. He did well in AAA last season, but he was also playing against prospects much younger than himself. I don't see how that makes him a shoe-in for the starting 3B position, for the entire season. I'd like to see him prove something at the big league level. I would like to see Ensberg succeed this season and hold down the 3B job for years to come, but then I was hoping for the same thing last season with Chris Truby.
Truby's not even in the same ballpark (excuse the pun) offensively. He was never considered a real prospect. Ensberg's in his 5th year (he was drafted as a senior, that's why he's 26 already) w/ the organization IIRC, Truby was in his 9th (& was going to be released a couple of years ago, before he showed some drastic improvement in AA). Also, Ensberg's AAA numbers look even better when you consider how pitcher-friendly their home park is. I've only seen Ensberg play a dozen times or so b/t N.O & Round Rock, so here's the what AstrosConnection has to say about him: "MORGAN ENSBERG (3B, T/B:R/R, AGE, 26) 2001 Stats (AAA-New Orleans): 316AB, 98H, 20 2B, 0 3B, 23HR, 61RBI, 63R, 45BB, 60K, .310/.397/.592 Dominican Winter League (11/28/01): 99AB, 27H, 4 2B, 1 3B, 6HR, 17RBI, 22R, 22BB, 18K, .272/.403/.515 Let's do a little comparison. The following represents the statistical production of two players in their AA and AAA careers: Player X: 822AB, 256H, 44HR, 62 2B, 2 3B, 178RBI, 156R, 167BB, 156K, .311/.435/.552 MEnsberg: 799AB, 243H, 51HR, 54 2B, 0 3B, 151RBI, 160R, 137BB, 167K, .304/.412/.563 Do I think Ensberg is going to be as productive as Player X in the majors? No. Player X was 22-23 years old when he compiled most of those statistics while Ensberg was a couple of years older. But simply looking at the statistical production of Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg side-by-side makes a damned impressive case for Morgan in his quest for the starting job with Houston. What Ensberg possesses as a hitter is not something easily taught. He has plate discipline to go along with a very powerful stroke. While Vinny Castilla may have provided some good power numbers for the Astros last year, he, Chris Truby and Charlie Hayes posted .320, .276 and .293 OBP numbers respectively. Those numbers are simply unacceptable and while I'm not willing to say as an everyday player Ensberg would exceed Castilla's .492 SLG number in his first season. But there's not much doubt in my mind he would far exceed such pathetic on-base totals. The only downside as I see it is the fact Ensberg is 26 years old and has basically no major league experience under his belt. That leaves little room for a learning curve. However, had it not been for a broken hammate bone which deprived him of nearly 2 months last season Ensberg would likely have been under serious consideration for MVP of the Pacific Coast League in 2001 and his name would be bandied about in national circles more often. It's the belief here Morgan will win the starting 3B job in Spring Training (unless the Hun brings in a ringer) and Astros fans will come to consider the affable Ensberg a big fan favorite." If he struggles ala Truby last year, he won't be the starter past June. However, my point was that Blum is simply not a ML-starter caliber player. He's a very nice bench guy, but that's it. Like I said earlier, if Ensberg gets injured or sucks (which is a possibility, but I've seen nothing to indicate that he will) we'll have to make a move, cause I don't think Ginter will be ready to handle 3rd defensively on a regular basis (he may never be) & Blum just isn't the answer.
Thanks for the breakdown of his defense. I still think that if he's our starting 3rd sacker, that we are, in the words of Pvt. Pyle, "in a world of s**t." In my mind, it basically comes down to: Why do we think that a utilityman from the Expos, one of the 4 or 5 least talented teams in MLB, can be anything more than a utility guy for the 'Stros?
It's funny that one of Dierker's biggest complaints was the lack of flexibility on the roster and since Dierk is gone now we have acquired a switch hitting catcher, a switch hitting infielder who can play all 4 infield positions, and Brian Hunter who is light years better than Glen Barker.
Here's a link to Blum's complete stats, including in the minors. They aren't exactly ...overwhelming. From what I've read elsewhere, he's a decent fielder with O.K. quickness and incredibly poor range. He played in left field some last year, and apparently had poor range even there. Whatever the case, I don't think he's in Truby's class defensively. Other left handers in camp camp included: Hernandez, Carlos Jacome, Jason Nitkowski, C.J. Franklin, Wayne Hernandez, Carlos Miller, Greg Wagner, Billy Obviously Wagner's not relevant to this discussion. Greg Miller, Wayne Franklin, and Carlos Hernandez have all been send down, but could make temporary replacements to cover DL time. Jacome and Nitkowski are both candidates with some real ML experience. (Jacome ML Career 10-18, 261 IP, 5.34 ERA, Nitkowski ML Career 16 -30, 419 IP, 5.37 ERA) Obviously, neither are great, but I assume that those two, plus McElroy were gunning for the lefty specialist role. Also, given how well Redding and Hernandez have pitched, it's not out of the realm of posibility that they intend to use Hernandez as the lefty reliever. Given that Hunsicker saw the results of going against his better judgement and calling up the youth, he might have taken that lesson to heart.
You're right, our flexibility was really hurt with losing Alou. We all know how many positions Alou could play and he was of course a switch hitter.
Here;s a quote from an article on MLB.com: That doesn't exactly sound like a ringing endorsement of Ensberg as an everyday third baseman this year. (link to the actual article here)
Personally, I see the reasoning behind getting rid of Truby, but I don't see how Blum helps. The fact that he's a lefty doesn't matter if he's going to hit .235/.325/.350. Plus, we already have a switch-hitter who can play 3B in Orlando Merced, and last year he was a very good pinch hitter.
Merced is not a switch hitter. He has also played the grand total of 2 (two) games at third base in his 10+ years in the major leagues.
I think that's more of a motivational tool than anything else. Can't let the kid get too complacent, thinking he's got it all sewn up w/ 3 weeks of ST left. I'd be shocked (& terrified) if Blum sees regular playing time. Stickfigure, you may have gotten Viz & Merced mixed up. Viz can play 3rd in an emergency situation, but isn't a viable option on a regular basis.
Truby's not even in the same ballpark (excuse the pun) offensively. He was never considered a real prospect. Ensberg's in his 5th year (he was drafted as a senior, that's why he's 26 already) w/ the organization IIRC, Truby was in his 9th (& was going to be released a couple of years ago, before he showed some drastic improvement in AA). Why does years experience in the organization matter? If Truby was in his 9th season, he was drafted out of high school. Ensberg had 4 seasons of college ball + 5 seasons of minor leagues. Ensberg is 26 this year, Truby was 27 last year. Let's do a little comparison. The following represents the statistical production of two players in their AA and AAA careers: Player X: 822AB, 256H, 44HR, 62 2B, 2 3B, 178RBI, 156R, 167BB, 156K, .311/.435/.552 MEnsberg: 799AB, 243H, 51HR, 54 2B, 0 3B, 151RBI, 160R, 137BB, 167K, .304/.412/.563 Do I think Ensberg is going to be as productive as Player X in the majors? No. Player X was 22-23 years old when he compiled most of those statistics while Ensberg was a couple of years older. But simply looking at the statistical production of Lance Berkman and Morgan Ensberg side-by-side makes a damned impressive case for Morgan in his quest for the starting job with Houston. There's no comparison between the statistics of a guy at 22 or 23, and a guy at 25-26. Three years is a huge difference in experience. Lance, by the way, put up .331/.430/.620 last season in the big leagues. He has 3 years ML experience. And he and Ensberg are the same age. A good prospect will find his way to the majors by the time he's 25, at the very least. The PCL, by the way, is a hitter's league. However, my point was that Blum is simply not a ML-starter caliber player. He's a very nice bench guy, but that's it. I don't think Blum is any thing beyond mediocre, myself. But then, the same applies to Ensberg. His and Chris Truby's statistics last season in AAA were comparable. For that matter, I think Adam Everett makes for a terrible starter, but that doesn't seem to be stopping the Stros from penciling him in as an everyday guy. The only reason we picked up Vinny last season was because he came cheap. My guess is that we will have glaring needs at SS and 3B, but I seriously doubt that anything gets done to address those needs unless something falls in our lap like Castilla did.
We all remember Crag Reynolds and we may remember him fondly. He was the SS on Astros playoff teams in 80, 81 and 86. He also was not a very good hitter. His OBP those 3 years was: .254, .271 and .274 - all quite abysmal. Reynolds was quite competent with moving Puhl along, however. I believe that the Astros can certainly get better production out of Everett. Granted, Reynolds was stuck in the dome, but he wasn't a HR hitter and the dome was better for "slap" hitters like Reynolds than Enron (oops, Astros) field. Roger Metzger was another solid defensive shortstop with crummy offensive numbers. His OBP was in the .280 range. If Everett fields like we've been led to believe and he can have an OBP in the .330 range, he will be an improvement over Ramirez, Guttierez and Reynolds.
