Been staring at satellite loops for a while and reading some of the weather boards. This one is really interesting. If you look closely at that satellite loop that was posted earlier you can clearly see the LLC in the Bay of Campeche dissipating. The circulation center that has the thunderstorms forming around it looks to be the ULL that was in that area. I suppose its working its way down to the surface or forming a new LLC. I'm not sure what that means for that westward solution toward Mexico/S Texas. We shall see. Btw, going with my gut I'm thinking weak TS into Louisiana.
The winds and hail tonight were not expected and planting new trees was not a good idea. Where did those demon storms come from?
Here in the Hobby area there was a gust of wind that moved my trash can 15 feet and knocked my canopy over in the backyard
Um, whoa? <iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/lECOhEhzUJM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
It's amazing how quiet this hurricane season has been. Unfortunately it seems that may be coming to an end. Computer models have been hinting at something forming in the BOC and moving either W into Mexico or NW towards Brownsville. It should be something to watch by the end of the week. Here is the Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC for more info. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT...AND ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES OVER LAND...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE... GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
You mean this? http://classic.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201393_model.html Unless you live in Brownsville, why is this a concern?
Those computer models have shifted a bit south since I made my post last night. However, how is a possible threat to Brownsville not worthy of a post on these boards? The hurricane experts are concerned with how computer models are forecasting the Texas ridge to break down with a storm forecast to be in the BoC. Here is another computer model showing the Texas ridge gone.
I live near the Galleria. Should I evacuate? (someone was gonna post something like this, might as well be me) That computer model doesn't show the high pressure ridge that's currently over our area. Is that a SCENARIO or is that happening? Anyway, nothing (hopefully?) to worry us. If I still lived in Harlingen I'd be like, "Not this crap again."
It's likely going to go into Mexico as possibly a very large storm but people in extreme south Texas need to be aware that things can change. We will get a better idea when this thing actually forms a LLC. It's looking better and better on satellite pics.
yeah this hurricane season has been a joke people don't realize what an outlier the Katrina/Rita/Ike years were
