[Trade Rumors]Jake Peavy

It's always amusing how so many people equate the value of a first round pick in MLB to a first round pick in the other sports.

 

No Deal! Hunter hit the sophmore wall and his production should see an increasing uptick for year 3. Plus you could plug him into center if you decide to go with a FA OF.

IMHO, The FA pitching market ain't too shabby this year. I'd put my money on 1 or 2 guys and leave the offense alone. We got plenty offensively.

 

Sometimes I wonder if people look at our names on offense and decide we must be OK, instead of watching the production. Right now, we don't have plenty offensively. We were 11th in the NL in runs scored... dead last in walks... 10th in OPS, 12th in OBP... there's not a single statistic where we were even in the top half of the league. That's bad. On the other hand, we were 8th in ERA and 8th in runs allowed.

Both could use improving, but truth be told, our situation on offense is every bit as much of a problem as our pitching. I agree that this might be a good year to go after a pitcher given the abundance of arms on the market, but if we have any opportunity to upgrade offensively, we need to take it.

I think you also hit the nail on the head with Pence, in a roundabout way. It all comes down to whether he's in center. Even if Hunter improves to closer to the 2007 version, he's still only an above average player in right. (He was average period in 2008.) If you put the 2007 version of Pence in center, you have a superstar, or close to it. Hope the Astros recognize that at some point, and if they don't, they might be better off dealing him to a team that values him that way...

 

Even assuming all of this to be true...

If the Astros had been able to replace Brandon Backe with an average #3 starting pitcher, they would likely have been a playoff team. If they were to have had a decent hitting catcher, it would have been even better.

Starting pitcher and catcher need to be the offseason priorities.

 

IMO, this is the wrong way of thinking of it. The Astros got really lucky this year. They were below average in pitching and below average in hitting - rarely does that equate to 11 games over .500. I'd be willing to bet that if they put up the same numbers next year, they will be around .500 at best.

Standing pat because of this season would be a big mistake. Cat's 100% correct.

 

Hunter Pence is not a center fielder. He proved it last year when he couldn't make an accurate throw to home plate to save his life. His accuracy is erratic at best. There's a reason he didn't make a single start in CF this year. He needs to stay in RF.

 

I already know what some of you are thinking. Move Pence to CF and sign Adam Dunn for RF.

An outfield of Lee, Pence, and Dunn would be the worst defensive outfield of all-time.

 

You point out his supposedly weak and inaccurate arm... and yet you say he should be in RF, where having guys with strong arms/accuracy are even MORE desireable.

Also, its not like he's an amputee out there. Yes, he doesn't have the strongest arm... but its not the weakest. His throws could be more accurate, but its not like he's bringing people way off the bag (hell, many times this year he was able to catch several runners trying to stretch it out). At the same time, he's shown pretty good athleticism/range at getting to some balls... as well as the occasional diving catch.

The main thing is does he have the legs to play CF.... and at the same time be productive at the plate... over a 162 game season. Being able to put him there opens up a ton of other possibilities at RF (for which its much easier to find an average RF than an average CF).

All this being said, I'm not giving up on Bourne just yet.... hell, if we gave Willy T 2+ years to figure it out (which he apparently still hasn't... after all that 2007 debate), we'll give Bourne more time as well.

Also, by that logic... if we were willing to play Richard Hidalgo, Lance Berkman, Craig Biggio and Chris Burke in CF for legitimate possible playoff teams... this team would be just fine with an infinitely better CF than those just mentioned in Hunter Pence.

 

not in MMP, with its deep alleys and ample ground in CF. both RF and LF are relatively short.

he's not a very good fielder. if the padres wanted him to be the crown jewel of a deal for peavy, it's an absolute no-brainer.

 

You do know that RF typically demands a much stronger arm than CF, right? What you just made is another argument to keep him in center, where his strength (range) is highlighted while the importance of his weakness (arm) is somewhat negated.

 

A week or two ago the Boston Globe surmised that Towers and Theo might get together to do a Peavy deal. Anything to it? It was a '2 + 2 = 4' kinda rumor, not a specific player thing.

If Bosox want Peavy they could trump the 'stros offer. if, if...IF.

 

If the RedSox want Peavy they are in fantastic position to acquire him.

If the Yankees want Peavy and are willing to deal, they are in better position than the Astros.

Really, the Astros have one valuable trading piece and that is Hunter Pence.

 

Which makes the need for a CF with a "strong" arm even less on the priority list (even though Hunter's arm is not appreciably worse than Bourn's or Abercrombie's).

Also, as Hidalgo showed, having a gun in RF can be very beneficial in this ballpark... where you can throw out many guys from the corner OF spot with ease... not so much from CF.

I never said he was a gold-glove fielder waiting to happen... just that he does have the ability to play CF, and the fact that its much easier to find average RF'ers than it is to find average CF'ers. Right now, the Astros don't have an average CF (and haven't had one since Beltran).

And yes, if you can get Peavy for him, you do it. I already assumed they'd never go for that long before I posted in this thread.

 

So, nobody believes Drayton and Wade when they say there will be no big FA acquisitions this offseason? Or that most of the money they do spend will be used to resign players?

Add in the fact that we would lose a 1st rd pick if we sign a Type A while we need to rebuild our farm system above all else and I get the sense that trying to bring back Randy Wolf may be the biggest thing we do. I don't see any upgrades to CF or C in the works either.

 

huh? its just the opposite.

which happens more in a given baseball season: a CF'er going into the alley to pick up a ball and relaying it in or a RF gunning down a runner at third with no cut-off? it's a luxury to have a hidalgo or guerrero in RF, not a necessity.

MMP has a deep, cavernous CF. pence was a mess out there. the shorter RF is a benefit to him; he's not a very good fielder: bad angles, misjudgment, weaker arm with no accuracy.

 

I saw it differently... as did many scouts who thought Pence actually held his own despite it being the first time he'd every played CF full-time for an entire season. Just like Willy was a mess out there when he first came up, Pence improved during his tenure (without losing anything at the plate).

The way you're talking about him, its like he's worse than Biggio, Berkman, or Burke out there (two of which were opening day everyday CF'ers on teams that had bigger aspirations than this year's squad).

Again, he's not going to win a gold glove... but he does have range, he's athletic enough to get to balls in the gaps, and his arm (while not the strongest), does have the ability to be both accurate and timely given his performance this year in right.

And, he'll lose you far less games with him in center (and joe schome average journeyman in right), as opposed to another year where Bourne has an OBP worse than what some HS players could accomplish TODAY in the majors.

All that being said, Bourne will get another years chance to win the job...

 

Defensive statistics in baseball are way misleading.

Guess who that's talking about:

Manny Ramirez, who is universally considered a terrible fielder.

In particular outfield assists are biased towards fielders who get run on a lot. E.g say Manny throws out 40% of the runners who run on him and Vlad throws out 70%. Almost every team is going to run on Manny, wildly inflating the number of chances he has to throw someone out whereas Vlad doesn't get the same number of opportunities.

 

he didnt seem as aggressive in the field after he ran into the RF wall practically going full speed in MMP. a couple times he let balls hit the wall that should have been caught. i remember at wrigley he let a ball hit the wall and he almost fell on his ass trying to catch it... it hit the wall about waist high. similar thing happened at miller park.

his stats just show he plays it safe... instead of diving for balls he plays the bounce. which is fine just not great outfielder.