Again, my point is that poorly managed teams with money to spend do stupid things, such as offering a player like Chandler Parsons $50+ mil. I get the feeling that a Rockets fan's refusal to accept that Parsons is going to receive massive offers that render him cost-prohibitive for Houston to retain is so much wishful/biased thinking. I'm just trying to be objective here. I'm in my late thirties and have been watching teams do stupid things for over twenty years! It happens! Consistently! I promise!
Bingo. Morey said as much in a recent interview. He said that guys like Royce and Furkan A. were great for Philly because Hinkie is in the same position that the Rockets WERE in of looking for high value prospects with potential. By inference, the use of past tense means that Morey is no longer in that mode. Morey is entering Win-Now mode. He doesn't want rookies and prospects with high potential that will have to wait to pan out or not (unless it's a top lottery pick he can count on for immediate production, I assume), he wants guys who can contribute immediately to a championship run. Morey also said that the experience from the Yao/T-Mac era was that every healthy year was precious, no matter how long you think the championship window is. All it takes is a freak injury, so you have to go all out this year once you have Harden and Dwight, because the window might just be one or two years before a Harden ACL tear or Dwight back surgery or something. They thought they would have many years with Yao/TMac, and in reality it was only like 2 seasons of full health. Morey also said that Les gave him permission to waste cap space to look for guys who can contribute immediately to a championship run. He was referencing the fact that Les gave the OK to eat guaranteed contracts for training camp. They're no longer looking to skimp on cap space. Morey said he's signing up guys for training camp with guaranteed money that he knows he will only sign them for to likely cut before the season starts. And that Les was ok with Morey wasting cap space and money like that. Again, this points to Morey going into Win Now mode and looking for immediate contributors, instead of valuing cap flexibility and draft picks and rookies with potential. He learned his lesson from the Yao/TMac years, and isn't going to take things for granted that there's a long window of contention. I doubt he's going to trade Parsons/Lin/Asik for draft picks unless he can use those to package for a 3rd star or need the cap space to bring a 3rd star aboard in free agency. He wants win now guys, not cap space and prospects and value contracts (though value is always good to go for, he's not prioritizing value contract asset churning anymore since he's in win now mode and not rebuild mode).
Well, I think you and others who feel this way are drawing flawed inferences from available information to reach this conclusion, but I guess we'll see. I believe that you guys are ignoring the need for what is called "cap flexibility," which allows you to always move pieces around as needed. A team can spend a lot of money, and can even enter into luxur tax territory, yet still have cap flexibility. You need your assets to all be highly desirable (so you can easily move them if/when circumstances change and/or other opportunities present themselves), and this means that players need to provide surplus value, that is, value, wins, bang for your buck. Chandler Parsons is presently an extreme example, as he makes less than $1 mil/year yet is an above average starting player. He has, therefore, been one of the 10-15 most valuable assets in the league for the last year or two. All of that immediately changes if he starts getting paid $12-$14 mil/year. A player's value is determined by both performance AND salary, and the terms of that salary. Also in the mix are a player's age and perceived upside, as well as what are called "intangibles." I was going to type more but my cellphone is doing that thing again...
i believe if the mavs start the season bad up till all star break...i could see us sending asik and one of the young PFs along with a couple of picks for dirk...this assumes our young PFs aren't quite making the strides we expected... i think the rockets can re-sign parsons to a 3yr/24mil deal, don't think any team will offer him a 50mil multi year deal, the new CBA will prevent teams from foolishly spending.
Parsons is a good player, but Morey will never pay him $12-$14 mil/year, I think Morey will trade him next season
No one is saying that things like value contracts and flexibility are bad. What I'm saying is that it's no longer the priority when you switch to a win now mode. Let's say you have Player A who is paid $1M but is worth $2M. This is a surplus value contract and an asset you can trade. And then you have player B who is being paid $5M and is worth $5M. This isn't a surplus value contract, and is not as coveted an asset as the underpaid player A. In this case, the rebuilding mode Morey might take Player A. The win-now mode Morey might take Player B. He takes the guy who can better contribute to a championship run even if he's not as good a value or as tradeable an asset. Because if he doesn't, he'll kick himself when the window closes after a Harden/Dwight ACL tear. He's not repeating the Yao/TMac errors, and thus the sense of urgency that he mentioned in his interview of not assuming there will be future healthy seasons. Every season in a win now frame is precious, and shouldn't be wasted. If you have a chance to contend, you go for it. You're no long flipping assets and churning them to create better trade chips for rebuilding, you're trying to contend by getting guys who can contribute to a championship run. There's a history of Morey doing that in the past, like with the Battier/Gay trade. A post-Yao/Tmac rebuilding Morey would take the No. 8th pick Rudy Gay. A win now Morey during the Yao years took vet Battier who was more ready to contribute to a championship run. Despite the fact that the high upside rookie scale Gay would be the better asset wtih cap flexibility and more tradeable. As Morey proved in the past with the Gay/Battier trade, when he's in win now mode, he wants the vet player who can contribute to a championship run. Not the high upside 8th pick rookie-scale guy who is would be the better trade asset (and thus offer more cap flexibility) or surplus value contract (locked into rookie scale with eventual bird rights and RFA) with lots of potential and youth. The rebuilding Morey cut Lin and kept Flynn because cutting Flynn would create dead money and waste cap space. The win now Morey got permission from Lex to give out guarantee contracts for training camp just so he cut them before the season starts, in a calculated waste of money and cap space on the off-chance that one of them might contribute and show enough to be kept on beyond training camp. The rebuilding Morey wouldn't do that, he'd only give out unguaranteed contracts if he had no intention of keeping them beyond training camp. Deliberately wasting cap space like this for training camp would have been unheard of for a rebuilding Morey.
I'm glad you moved this discussion to a separate thread. I know the thread nazi's wont like it, but I really do think this will be an on-going discussion (and very fluid) throughout the year. All is takes is one major free agent to threaten free agency for teams to start flushing out salary at the Feb traded deadline at the hopes of acquiring one of these guys. Either way, it does look like quite a few teams will have money to spend. The only question is, are there going to be any "Dwight/Lakers" situations this Winter/Spring that dilute the supply of free agents & push down the demand for Parsons??? All it takes is one. Also, I'm not sure what the make of the DeMarcus Cousins situation(and Indiana/George & Detroit/Monroe to a much lesser extent). Will Sacramento be willing to risk him becoming an un-restricted free agent the next year??? My personal hunch is that they waive his qualifying offer to make him an RFA, and I think a team like Dallas will offer him the max. I also think that the same type of teams that go after Cousins will also be going after Parsons (young building block that can hopefully be your second best player). The only question is.... will Sacramento match a max offer??.... much like Marc Gasol with Memphis, I do think the answer is yes they will. Still it will affect free agency as free agents like Parsons have to wait for him to get off the board, or take lesser offers earlier to secure a contract. Alot of teams that would be interested in Parsons will go after Cousins as option A. Point is, I do think it is possible that Cousins(and possibly George/Monroe) free agency has an impact on the market one way or another next summer.
Morey shall sign Persons for a long term contract before let him go to be a UNRESTRICTED free agent. Other bad teams can afford him a big contract if he is free.
Agreed. I think Morey prefers to be the giver, not the receiver. It would be the irony of all ironies if another team did to the Rockets what the Rockets did to Chicago and NY. But a lot depends on how well Parsons starts the season. It's an interesting subplot, though, and I'm sure there will be plenty of chatter about it in the next six months.
That's why Bryan Colangelo is no longer working as a GM. Assuming Parsons doesn't make a significant leap into all-star level within the next two years, any GM who signs Parsons to a $50M 4-year contract is gambling on his future. This is the dawn of a new era for NBA!
This is the argument for matching a whopper of an offer sheet for Parsons if he is allowed to become restricted free agent next summer, no question. I guess we'll see what happens. But Rockets fans need to realize that Parsons will be a very hot commodity and will cost a ton. Four years, $32 mil is wishful thinking. He's going to get a hell of a lot more than that. I say you can get a really good young player at #10 overall, and if you can swap Parsons for something like the #10 overall pick, and you believe that this player who you'd take at #10 overall provides just as many wins as Parsons will, then it's kind of a no-brainer. Especially if you can ALSO sign a Luol Deng or a Shawn Marion for half of what it's going to cost to sign Parsons. And what if Minnesota isn't very good in 2013-14, and Kevin Love is telling Minnesota that he wants out? Would Minnesota trade Love for, say, Omer Asik, the #10 overall pick (obtained in a Parsons trade), Donatas Motiejunas, the Rockets' own first round pick, and maybe a second round pick or two? Anyway, this is what you call a "good problem." Houston is in a great spot, Morey has options. When you retain cap flexibility, when you are flush with desirable assets, you are always in a position to pounce when a Kevin Love becomes available.
