Tom Savage - Texans' fourth round (#135 overall) pick

The problem is this :

1. You seems to forget how Fitz played the last couple seasons at Buf and Ten.
2. You seems to forget why Fitz ended up with the Texans, which is because of Josh feaking Mccown chosen the Bucs over the Texans so the Texans just grab whatever garbage left on the market as a placeholder.

I full understand if you do not have any confidence on Keenum based on the 0-8 records.

But if you will think Fitz will be a no question sure starter for this team and will have any success, you are just joking yourself.

I am even willing to believe Matt Schaub will have more wins and starts in the rest of his career than Fitz.

 

Denver has already drafted their quarterback for the future. Geno had one of the beat QBR in the month of December with no one to throw to... I wouldn't give up on him so fast. And Arizona picked up Logan and Tennessee picked up Zach and both of those coaches have proven track records with different quarterbacks on different teams...

Also, with the exception of Tennessee _ I don't believe the Texans will have a better record than any of those teams anyway so I don't see them drafting before us next year.

 

Actually, I'm not forgetting. Fitzpatrick's QB ratings the past two years at Buffalo and Tennessee? 83.3 and 82.0. In basically a year-and-a-half as a starter, he threw 38 touchdowns. That's not bad.

Oh, and from camp this past week:

Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick showed how much he understands the offense in two days on the grass. He has a much quicker release than this offense has seen from their previous signal callers from Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates and Case Keenum. Not blessed with a big arm, Fitzpatrick has shown how quick he can get it out of his hand before the secondary can react. There is still some misses on open routes from all three quarterbacks, but Fitzpatrick has separated himself from the other two quarterbacks.

http://www.stateofthetexans.com/blog/2014/05/07/texans-mini-camp-day-two-review/

Fitzpatrick isn't a world beater, but he's a mediocre NFL quarterback -- and that might be enough to make the Texans a playoff team in the interim, given the strong defense and the weak schedule. OTOH, Case Keenum is not a mediocre NFL quarterback. That's really all there is to it.

 

He's not a star or a superstar but I think Fitzy will play up to the level of the team he's on. If it's a good team he'll play well. If it's a bad team, he'll look very spotty as he tries to make more of plays than what is there.

 

lol in this thread Fitzpartick is the new Jeremy Lin.

 

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I think this Miami game demonstrates why we have to grade Savage's "lack" of production on a curve. His receivers are constantly dropping catchable balls and he's constantly under pressure due to the pocket collapsing. The plays in 2:50 and 5:37 show some good poise and touch.

 

He's a pro athlete with a Harvard degree, an epic beard, and he's "unseating" a Houston hero. What could possibly go wrong in this scenario?

 

There is zero doubt that Fitzpatrick is the best of the bunch.

I mean, the dude threw for 71 touchdowns over his final 3 years in Buffalo. In Buffalo! Averaging 24 TDs a season is actually pretty damn decent. There are only around 12 QBs every year that can hit that number and it seems like he can hit that consistently with a full 16 games. Plus, he's never had a guy like Andre on his side, so I think he can most definitely be good enough to take the Texans to the playoffs if our defense and running game are playing up to par.

 

I think Savage was a low risk gamble. I don't think anyone expects him to be the long term solution at QB. And that's okay by me.

 

He's also a turnover machine.

If only he was Asian...

 

I agree with what you're saying. He's a mediocre QB, and first year with new team, new coach, etc. could be one of those last fluke solid years for him before he rides into the distance sticking around until his mid 30's.

That said, it seems a LOT would have to go right elsewhere on the team for even that to make them a playoff contender. 3 playoff caliber teams in the AFC North, potentially 3 in the East, and 3 in the West, and it doesn't seem like the Colts are going away.

They'd have to really pull an Alex Smith and turn Fitzpatrick into an ultimate low turnover game manager type, and at his age and history that doesn't seem possible.

8-8 may be possible, and yes, 9-7 made the playoffs last year and does so every few years (maybe 35%-40% of the time), but if I'm betting today I'm saying 10 wins is needed next year to make the playoffs in the AFC, and getting to 8-8 even with Fitzpatrick is a 25% or less type thing.

I like the Texans draft a lot, like Bill Obrien, like what they're doing...

BUT, and this is not their fault for what their options were, but the same KEY question remains for this team that has remained from day 1 almost, but certainly became over the last couple of years (cause Schaub was either too injured or too scared/immobile to be the guy)...

WHERE ARE THEY GOING TO FIND THAT "FRANCHISE" QB?

Doesn't have to be Andrew Luck, but does have to be a guy that if you build the rest of the team right, you have a chance to win it all.

There's no Drew Brees of the world coming up.
There's no "trade" targets that in any way make sense.

So do they have a "plan" and is that plan basically 2015 NFL draft? It has to be. Winston, Mariota, Hundley, Petty, Hogan.. heck even Connor Cook and Mannion... all these guys seem like better options than this year's crop.

That said, do we even want to be "good" this year? Better than 2-14 sure, but 8-8? Do we even want to start Fitzpatrick? Why take Savage at all... just a real flyer i guess?

See, I understand the gamble... but kind of preferred they just gambled on a position player.

 

Bills
Jags X2
Titans X2
Browns
Raiders
Redskins

That's eight games -- half your schedule -- against teams that are likely to be BAD. At a minimum, the Texans are likely going to be favored in 6 of those.

As for the "tougher half", you're looking at:

Colts X2
Ravens
Steelers
Bengals
Eagles
Cowboys
Giants

Are any of those teams better than "pretty good"? I don't see a legitimate Super Bowl contender on the entire list, and the other half of it is complete garbage. Statistically, it's the third-easiest schedule (going by 2013 winning percentage) in the entire league.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/4/23/5642204/2014-nfl-schedule-raiders-broncos-colts-panthers

I really don't think it's all that improbable for the Texans to come up with 10 wins, given competent QB play and a bit of luck with health. I don't know that I'd predict it, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility at all -- which is why you have to go with the best QB available until results dictate otherwise.

Moreover, I don't view the Texans as your run-of-the-mill 2-14 team, just as I didn't the Chiefs a year ago and the Colts two years ago. This is a team with respectable talent up-and-down the roster that had basically the perfect storm: established QB has a meltdown, no viable backup exists, coaching turmoil (stroke and then firing), early season-ending injuries to multiple star players (Foster, Cushing), etc. Switch those variables and pair them with mediocre QB play and a weak schedule, and I think you'll be surprised how quickly they "recover".

 

I agree with The Cat. I'm more optimistic about the Texans now than I was at the end of the season of course. I really like the draft, I like the coaches and I don't hate the QB position. I think the Texans could be a Bengals like team this year. Really strong on defense, make the playoffs but struggle because your QB isn't really good enough to do much in the postseason.

 

The team has too much position talent to be way under .500. But the ceiling is also low without at least a B level starting QB. You've got a "QB guru" head coach, you would be crazy not to try and develop something, even if it's a long shot. At least Savage has good size and arm strength - if everything broke right, he could become a solid starting QB in the right system and with the right weapons. That's worth a flyer, much more so than giving up without trying.

A successful gamble on a 4th round QB is like hitting the lottery, both in terms of chances and in terms of payoff. A successful gamble on a 4th round RB or LB is more like getting $20 on a scratch off ticket. Great, but doesn't move the needle much on the team's ultimate success level.

 

The way that Texans drafted and the scheme they are putting up with their coaching staff, they are not looking for a 7-9 or 8-8 season.

In fact, if they are looking for a 8-8 or 7-9/9-7 season, draft AJ Maccaron will make more sense. Fitz is a turnover machine and that's the last thing this team will be looking for when the goal is to play high level D and field position.

Obviously, they still have some hopes on Keenum or hope to hit a jackpot with Savage, otherwise they are willing and prepare to suck for another year.

If their plan is based on riding Fritz in the coming season for a playoff spot, both rick smith and BOB should be fired right away.

 

Except they expect to cut Case and Yates why draft a player who is almost destined to be your 3rd string QB in the fourth round. Especially when good LBs ( Spruill, Williamson, George) and CBs (Shaq, Ricardo Allen) were still on the board.

 

They have to draft a QB otherwise that will basically means that they are telling all the Texan fans that we are going to suck another year.

No matter how you will rate Savage, there is still a glimpse of hope he will bring some excitement.

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Vikings had Manziel/Bridgewater 1/2. If they failed to get either? Would've looked at Garoppolo at 40 or Savage at 72 <a href="http://t.co/As9MX9Sx85">http://t.co/As9MX9Sx85</a></p>&mdash; Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) <a href="https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/statuses/465909769182535681">May 12, 2014</a></blockquote>
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At least one team was looking at Savage in the 3rd round. Heck of a value that we got him about 50 picks later.

 

I think all 4 QBs will come to training camp and there will truly be an open competition with the 4th best one getting cut - no matter when/where he was drafted or where he went to college.

BoB has been preaching open competition since the day he took the job and I think he means it. No preconceived notions with this guy.

 

One think to keep in mind... O'Brien specifically said there's not much separation between these quarterbacks. So this isn't a "throw away" pick. And if any of the quarterbacks that were drafted before Savage turns out to be good pro QB's and Savage does not.... He'll have some explaining to do.