Today is D-Day

Today is the day when it could all begin or all start come crashing down to an end in our pursuit of Dwight.

Today marks the end of 2011-12 salaries. It is also the last date for early termination of a lot of contracts. After today, the 2012-13 salaries have to be used in trade and there aren't so many contracts available for matching. So, I will be surprised if some trades aren't made today. After today, a lot of trade flexibility is gone.

But also, today is the last day before free agency starts. And that's the biggie. In a little under 16 1/2 hours, Deron Williams could decide where he is going to play basketball for the next 5 years. Or he could wait, not say anything, and decide to actually talk to multiple teams.

If Deron does announce he is going to re-sign in Brooklyn tomorrow and Dwight has not been traded, then in my opinion, our pursuit of Dwight will almost end. Morey is a risk taker. But he's not stupid. He may still be interested in acquiring Dwight but only after being able to speak to Dwight and get him to be open about re-signing here. (Highly unlikely) That's about the max risk Morey will take. (And frankly I don't see him even being willing to take that much risk with our assets.) I don't think he'll attempt to trade for Dwight on a strictly rental basis without being able to recruit Dwight before he trades him. And in that scenario, with DWill already committed in Brooklyn, Dwight is not likely to be open to speaking with him. And I really don't feel Morey will be willing to trade for Dwight at all without securing an agreement from Dwight to sign an extension with us at that point.

If Dwight is not traded today and Deron commits to Dallas......there is still a small chance that Morey will trade for Dwight on a rental basis. However, in this scenario and also in the one above, without a commitment from Dwight to sign an extension, in my opinion Morey is not going to be willing to give up nearly as much. At this point, Orlando is going to show Dwight where it is in his best interest to stay in Orlando and commit to an extension because he'll have to walk to Brooklyn in a year, lose $57 million, and not be in a position to win anyways since other free agents and draft picks will have to be brought in, and, in another year, Orlando will have improved their roster with trades and draft picks to become better suited to contend with Dwight getting a birds rights max deal.

In other words, if Deron commits to Dallas, then Orlando has no reason to trade Dwight to Brooklyn and Dwight really doesn't have much reason to go there. Brooklyn is likely eliminated as an option. Dwight will have to use his threat of walking away to get Orlando to trade him somewhere else.

This is the day for the Rockets, Dwight, and Orlando. This is the day when the Rockets are willing to give up the most and Orlando can get the most for Dwight in a rental trade. After today, we move into the twilight zone. There is still a chance. But a lot of what happens will be determined by what route Deron takes in free agency.

I'm watching Deron with keen interest right now. He's sending out signals that he's going to stay in Brooklyn. These guys and their agents, they're all smart, they know how things can unfold and how what they do and say influences the situation. So, Deron's up in Brooklyn working out, talking to AJ, etc. etc. etc. He's sending signals he's staying in Brooklyn. Why? Because if he sends signals he's going to Dallas, then he knows that Dwight more than likely won't be able to join him there. Dwight will most likely sign his extension and stay in Orlando or be traded somewhere else. And Deron also knows that if he commits in Brooklyn tomorrow that he can help cement Dwight walking away from wherever he is at and not agree to an extension anywhere. So Hennigan is walking a tightrope with the future of the Orlando franchise after midnight tonight.

Today is D-Day in a lot of ways for us. After today, our odds of acquiring Dwight fall substantially. It is still possible but the longer we go into free agency, the less likely it is that we trade for Dwight.


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If we don't get Dwight???????


Somebody mentioned some 3 or 4-way deal involving us helping Dwight get to the Lakers and being able to get back Bynum or Gasol. I hope that doesn't happen. And I can't see Morey being willing to help the Lakers become dominant again when Les is looking to compete right now for a championship. Bynum is a major risk. Morey knows it. Bynum is on an expiring contract. He's not nearly as good as Dwight. And Bynum with a fresh new 5-year max contract could (and probably will) become very complacent. Gasol?? He's on the back side of his career. Still a great player, a top 5 center in the NBA, but us bringing him here and getting Dwight to the Lakers makes no sense. Even if we get to the playoffs we're not likely to be able to get through Dwight/Kobe and whatever else they bring in. It's simply a loser deal for us from any angle that I see to be a part of a convoluted deal that sends Dwight to the Lakers. So, I think all that is just talk. Morey is talking and involved in those talks simply to sort out what the Lakers are trying to do, not to help facilitate Dwight going to LA. I don't believe Morey is interested in Bynum or Gasol right now. He may be interested if Dwight stays in the East. But he's not interested in Bynum and Gasol if Dwight is in LA.

If Dwight goes to the Lakers somehow, Morey is going to build with Royce White as a foundation, get a good defensive center like Asik and he's going to put his efforts into rebuilding us out from Dragic, White, Parsons, Motie, Lamb, and whatever center he can come up with by trading some combination of Scola, Martin, Lowry, Lee, Morris, and Patterson that doesn't have an exorbitant max contract. That means a guy like Asik. And most likely we will be able to get Asik, especially with guys like Lee, Smith, Morris, Scola, and martin available to execute a multi-player deal with Chicago.

 

That's a very good way to put it. I do like Royce's game. But he's still got high bust potential. Wished I felt the same way about Lamb, am willing to reconsider my opinion on him. Don't see it with Jones at all. Really having to make my peace with that pick.