So after listening to Charlie on 790 yesterday and then reading other comments elsewhere that tied into the same concept, it got me thinking. How much do you want the Rockets to win this year? Now, obviously if you can win a title this year you take it and all else be damned. So let's rule out that possibility for this hypothetical. If I tell your right now that as point of fact, one of the following outcomes is going to happen, what do you prefer? 1. Rockets make the playoffs as an 8-6 seed and win at least one round but they will NOT make it out of the West. OR 2. Rockets fail to make the playoffs and finish with a draft pick numbered between 8 and 12. (ruling out the #14 for this hypothetical) Which do you prefer? If you aren't going to get a championship for sure, would you prefer a better draft pick? Recall that if the Rockets make the playoffs this year then our pick is conveyed away to Atlanta. Charlie's argument was that any playoff experience for this team would be a plus, not just because it would help the players on the team but that it would make us attractive to other players. The flipside is that you don't believe in "playoff experience" really mattering and you'd rather have a higher pick to try to nab the next piece of this puzzle. So where do you stand? I am not offering my opinion in this post.
If we're talking about a young, developing team with pieces enough to get to the second round, you always--ALWAYS--want them to get that playoff experience under their belts and use it as a building block and teaching moment for future seasons. Making them battle-tested and used to the rigors of playoff basketball is way, way more valuable than one middling draft pick who according to the law of averages, has a better chance at becoming a role player than a star[/i]. This isn't even a close question!
Long time pro-tanker here. At this point, I'd rather make the playoffs and get the young guys some experience and national exposure. We have a foundation piece here now to build on, so tanking isn't really necessary anymore. However, if the Rockets make the playoffs, their 1st round pick goes to ATL via the Nets (T-Will trade).
This is not even a question anymore. We have somewhat of a foundation in place, you win to get experience at all costs. We are young enough as it is anyway -- not much room for more rookies anyway.
Rockets don't need to tank anymore. They have some potential and HOPE to build around. These threads aren't really necessary, I believe most tankers believe this. The reason tankers wanted tanking was because we had a team of 29-33 year olds with absolutely no potential, they were what they were. Now we have a team of 22-24 year olds with MASSIVE potential, and that is all you can ask for. A team that has the potential to be GREAT. (Obviously if you are LA or NY you can just grab superstars left and right, but the other teams just look to build a big upside team).
It is absolutely a positive when the Rockets win. We have a young squad, and winning games only makes them more confident and creates a better culture. ATTRACTION is the name of the game. Every NBA star is paying attention to us right now, and if we can string some W's together, with MAX CAP ROOM AVAILABLE, there's a good chance somebody worthwhile will wanna sign up/request a move here.
But this wasn't part of the question. The pick according to the OP was in the 8-12 range. The probability of a player being drafted in that range becoming a perennial all-star is pathetically small.
Which is why, ideally, you're usually better off letting another team play the odds with a better, top 3 pick, see if he has star potential instead, and then see if you can snipe him away from that team at an opportune time. *cough* James Harden *cough* *cough*
Yes, you understand correctly. Basically I agree with those who are saying make the playoffs. I just read posters here and people elsewhere say that making the playoffs if you aren't going to win a title is a waste and we are back on the mediocrity treadmill. I didn't understand that sentiment so wanted to see what this vote turned out to be. I will be curious to reference it at the end of the season if they indeed make the playoffs but DON'T win the West. It will be interesting to me whether people flip back to wishing they hadn't made the playoffs.
I'm only down for tanking next year. Lin goes out for season with injury next year and harden wins scoring title, but the team is one of the worst. We win first pick and select Andrew Wiggins. Champions in 2017
A week ago I was a diehard tanker. But with this team, you go as far as they can take us. If they even make it to the playoffs at all with the youngest team in the NBA, I expect disgruntled stars will be lining up to play in Houston. Sign me up for that.
The closer question is would it be worth it to be an 8th seed and fail to make it to the second round -OR- Have that 8-12 pick. I would still have to go with getting a young core that critical playoff experience. That taste. Especially if we're talking about trying to entice free agents into coming to Houston, too. You'd want to demonstrate to them that you're a relevant playoff team, not a lotto team!
This is coming from a former tanking supporter. I'd prefer to make the playoffs. I'd really like this young team to get a taste of the playoffs to further increase their development. Not to mention since we still owe a draft pick to ATL, I'd rather lose a draft pick in the 2013 Draft, then in 2014 Draft. Given that 2014 projects as a much deeper draft.
I thought the trade for Harden would've made it obvious. Charlie is spot on. With a young team like us making the playoffs as soon as possible is critical. Once you get there you never want to go back and with a young team like us where not many have been it's going to be critical for their future development. The playoffs is where Superstars are made and we should all be excited to see Harden try to become that. I feel like Harden can pick up where Brandon Roy left off before he nearly single handedly beat us a few years ago and went down with knee problems soon after. Roy was a Star player before that but he really made his mark in that series and was destined for Superstardom and he wasn't too far behind Kobe and Wade. Fast forward a few years and Kobe and Wade are still 1 and 2 at their advanced age but it's Harden's time to solidify the #3 best and make a name for himself and create an argument that he's even better than them. It's hard to do that unless you get to the playoffs and make a huge mark there. Furthermore, there's nothing more exciting than playoff basketball. It generates income, builds the fan base, creates a buzz in the city and draws FA attention. No brainer.
