Agree. Kluber had the hghest probability to win both of his starts and that made the move to start him absolutely reasonable and rationale based on his metrics. In fact, his 1.59 era against the Yankees increased the probability slightly.
Well that’s kind of my point... Real life doesn’t always work out like the calculations you put on paper. Anyway, an ERA of X doesn’t guarantee or even suggest a pitcher is going to give up runs at a certain pace through X innings. Chris Sale can be terrific with a sub 3 ERA over 200+ innings, but that can include spans where he goes 20 innings of 1 run baseball and then a 2 inning outing where he gives up 9 runs. It’s baseball, and each game is it’s own, especially in the postseason.
Yup. All past statistics can give you is probability or likelihood. Martes could start and pitch 8 innings and give up no runs. Its just unlikely. McCann could bat .800 in the ALCS. Again, its just unlikely. But you cant extrapolate a guys average performance and conclude that is how he will perform is any given game.
