This team is staring at the Abyss for the next 3-5 years

Let me make a couple of predictions:

1) Harden is going to shoot lights out in one of the next two games. I feel 95% confident of this prediction. (the 5% being maybe Harden is even more mentally soft than I think... which is ... unlikely)
2) They'll still lose that game because other people will be out of rhythm, especially Dwight. I feel 80% confident of this prediction (the 20% being maybe the Blazers will play a crappy game in the same game, anything can happen for one game)
3) They will lose the series. I feel 99.99999999% confident of this prediction. (the almost nonexistent chance is... there's always the chance of major injuries, though I wish it upon no one).

Now...my prediction in the title:

4) This team will get into the playoffs and won't get past the second round for... at least 3-5 years, so we are staring at the abyss in the basketball sense. This prediction I feel 100% confident in.

Lin can be traded, Asik & Parsons can be traded, players like Beverly can be found, Mchale can be fired, Dwight is just going to ride along, he's the ride along type and he has joined the Rockets late so he can't be the Alpha dog... this team STARTS AND ENDS with Harden. That doesn't mean he shoulders all the credits and blames himself, it just means if he's not fixed first, then no amount of fixing on other parts of the team matters.

I don't think he can be "fixed" in many years to come. Countless others have talked about the flaws of his game, I just want to point out a few things that I think is very self-evident:

1) He's still in that stage of life where he thinks accomplishing things with a beard and style is more important than accomplishing things.
2) He doesn't want to face the truth, which is he has glaring holes in his game that must be addressed... and unfortunately if you are the cornerstone of the team with Championship aspirations, you don't have to be exceptional in everything you do, but you can NOT have glaring holes in any part of your game. Dirk only won after he completely understood that fact.
3) He doesn't really want to be coached.

In other words he's highly immature. This is the worst case scenario for any team, you get a star that's immature. Because if he's not talented you can get rid of him, but you see his talent and potential and your fans adore his shooting so you can't really get rid of him, your coach has no power over him because the guy knows he's the superstar and the coach really can't do anything.

If you get a friendly coach you can't fix his bad habits, if you get a tough coach with no rings Harden will simply go "f*** you" and not listen. If you get a tough coach with rings... well... there aren't any of them available out there.

So basically you have to wait for Harden to see the light himself. Trust me, that takes YEARS OF LOSING AND GROWING UP. One day he has to be tired of losing AND realizes himself is a big part of the reason... that day might never come, it's definitely not going to come in the next 3 years.

It's simple human nature.

Oh, btw... to shoot a three pointer while down 1 is okay, you shoot the shots you feel you are most comfortable with... but to shoot that three pointer with 17 seconds still on the clock?

I challenge all of you to find ONE Superstar who's won championships in the past two decades (go back to MJ, or go back to Bird & Magic) who has done anything remotely as boneheaded as that.

That shows deep down inside Harden there's a level of boneheadedness that's part of his DNA, that ain't something that can be easily coached out of the guy... it's part of who he is.

This team... while exciting to watch at times, is hopeless. If you don't want to die from heartaches, just lower your expectation and be very happy when they make the playoffs and consider everything else bonuses, that way you can live longer and thank me later.

 

Of course, my point is no amount of "improvements" will make a significant difference.

1) You can change the coach (which I definitely think they should), but I think it takes a championship experienced coach to get Harden & Dwight to buy in together... there isn't someone like that out there, not for the next 3-5 years.
2) You can change the roster... Melo, LMA, they won't come, if they won't come, then all the changes are insignificant because the franchise player will still be Harden and the same problems persist.
3) You can't trade Harden or Dwight, you are stuck with them. This will get you some winning but ... again, see point 1 & 2.

So I make the prediction that this team is hopeless if your aspiration is to win it all.

 

Sure, 25, 12, 7, 2, 8, the ball is 33

I'm about 0.00000000000000000000000001% sure of that answer

 

No, two games of getting exposed plus the past few seasons of track record + interviews serve as the basis of an educated prediction of the near future.

 

At the end of the post I said it's better if you are happy about making the playoffs and consider everything else a bonus... I myself consider that state of mediocrity the abyss of basketball. No draft, never getting over the hump...

My point is no matter what you do with role players or coaching, with this core the ceiling is clear. Unless Harden suddenly sees the light and somehow also gets Dwight to buy in at the same time, all improvements in standing will only be minor and won't bring you to the Finals.

Trust me, it's NOT something I want to turn out true... but I can't see anyway out of that conclusion.

 

We can be a better team, but we won't be the 'best team"... I hope I get proven wrong. But I can't really reason myself out of that conclusion.