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The worst shooting season in the history of the NBA/ABA

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by rogower, Dec 27, 2014.

  1. rogower

    rogower Member

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    Okay, fair point, let's go back a little bit more.

    Player seasons with 12 or more field goal attempts/game, TS% of 47% or below, 2013-14 season:

    Derrick Rose (in only 10 total games), TS% of 44.6%
    Josh Smith, TS% of 46.2&

    Back to 2012-13, when Smith was still with the Hawks, and before we can use the "bad system" or "playing out of position" excuses, he was still bad, one of the worst chuckers in the leagie, but, to be fair, he was not the worst, and he wasn't nearly as bad as he was in 2014-14 and 2014-15. There were nine guys with 12 or more field goal attempts/game with a lower TS%. But only nine!

    And, going back to 2011-12, still with the Hawks, obviously, still not historically awful, but there were only SIX players with 12 or more field goal attempts/game with a lower TS%.

    So, hopefully, we will see regression to the mean, but we are still likely looking at one of the 5-10 worst chuckers in the league here. If we define "chucker" as someone who takes a fair number of shots per game (12 or more) but has a low true shooting percentage.

    I realize this is a fan website, and sports fans are not the most objective people in the world, but I am just providing data here, I am not making anything up. But the data tells us, or should tell us, that Josh Smith is not exactly the prototypical stretch four, and we should anticipate some spacing issues on the offensive end of the floor. Hopefully, he will sort of make up for this problem by excelling in other areas (rebounding, defense) but I believe we already experienced this sort of scenario last season, with Omer Asik.

    Again, fortunately, Daryl Morey has an arsenal of expiring contracts, cheap/young players, and draft picks. Josh Smith will hopefully bring more to the table than Tarik Black but we should not view him as the missing piece to the puzzle, and we also should not assume that he will still be getting starter's minutes 2-3 months from now.

    For those of you who think I am being a "hater" or a "troll" or whatever, I don't know what to tell you. Again, I am just providing data, over three years' worth of data, I am not making this stuff up.
     
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  2. sealclubber1016

    Supporting Member

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    His XRAPM

    09-10 +5.2 (11th in the NBA) + 1.1 Offense
    10-11 +4.5 (15th in the NBA) -0.2 Offense
    11-12 +6.2 (6th in the NBA) + 1.3 Offense
    12-13 +3.4 (28th in the NBA) 0.0 Offense
    13-14 +3.2 (50th in the NBA) + 0.8 Offense

    For all of his reputation as a terrible offensive player, he has consistently proven to have at worst a neutral impact on offense, and a major impact on defense.

    This year was the first year where he was truly a bad offensive player, and it was a small sample. But don't let facts get in the way of your opinion.
     
  3. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Look - I agree the guy has been a terrible offensive player these last few years.

    Let's hope he turns it around as a role player in Houston.

    Granted he took 21 shots, but other than a few - they did not seem out of place....

    I am going to give him a chance, he is way better than Black - so we upgraded, and maybe he will turn out to be efficient playing with Harden.

    Old habits die hard, but they can die....right...RIGHT?

    DD
     
  4. BucMan55

    BucMan55 Contributing Member

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    The data you supply is not a surprise to anyone. The problem most of us seem to have is using a single game to prop up your stance that he is a bad chucker. Yet those of us who watched the game did not see a "chucker". He took 3 bad shots all night, one was within the flow of the offense, and he hit 50% of the other two. Oh yeah and did we also mention it was his first game as a Rocket with nothing but a shoot around to get acquainted with his teammates??
     
  5. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Also, if one looks at offensive win shares, Smith is positive every season EXCEPT his Detroit years. Some years a significant number.
     
  6. mfastx

    mfastx Member
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    At least let him play a few games before we start criticizing him. Ariza is shooting like 36% for the entire year, but he's still very valuable for us.
     
  7. kingkingston

    kingkingston Member

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    just look at his shot chart from yesterday, most were in the paint which is what we want
     
  8. kokopuffs

    kokopuffs Member

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    0 star thread
     
  9. NL Rocket

    NL Rocket Member

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    The hate is strong

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    Are you saying no one has had a 10 game stretch worse than that?

    I find it hard to believe.

    Heck, Kobe hasn't shot over 35% in his last 5 games, and he's averaging over 20 shots.

    If you're going to provide data, make sure it makes sense. Comparing a 25 game stretch to full seasons is not giving an accurate picture.
     
  11. James Gabriel

    James Gabriel Member

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    Stats this, stats that, jeez, we have Josh Smith for a bargain one year contract. It's not like Morey turned the guy into our franchise player overnight. :p
     
  12. splendidchen

    splendidchen Member

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    Smith is a not "prototypical stretch four". I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you on that. That smith is a "chucker" is also a true statement based on his track record.

    But I think your post is irritating in that
    1) You use data of 1/3 of a season to claim "the worst shooting season in the history". That's just not a fair comparison since we haven't seen the season played out. You should either wait till we have a full season or compare his performance so far with any 25-ish game stretch in history.

    2) You are way overstating the spacing issue. Smith is not a worse shooter than Dmo or TJones, and a better shooter than Asik. More importantly, he has a nice face-up game. He can drive, can pass, can cut and can finish. As to his inability to shoot, how many times have you seen defenders leaving him wide open 15-20 feet away from basket to clog the paint? He's no Omer Asik, and I would go so far to say that he improves our spacing by replacing Dmo (a predominantly post-up player) in our starting lineup. His playmaking ability is also sorely needed when Harden is resting.



     
  13. Salvy

    Salvy Member

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    I think you are an ahole..... You know, that ahole in every conversation that interrupts someone's statement with "technically" or "actually" and proceeds to $hit on everything someone just said. Why? Because you have a certain urge to reveal this knowledge inside of you that must escape instill itself on the ignorant. I mean, everyone is excited about Josh Smith's signing and what he brings to the table....But noooooo, here comes rogower and his need to make a post about how terrible Smith is when you take a closer look at staaaaats...... Ahole....
     
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  14. vlaurelio

    vlaurelio Contributing Member

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    1. So he is not really the worst? Then change the thread title

    2. Why 12 or. More? Because anything less will not fit your agenda?

    3. So he's in the same boat as Derrick rose. Would you categorize rose as a chucker who had the worst shooting stretch? Can you list down who the other 9 guys are in 2012-13?
     
  15. mclawson

    mclawson Member

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    DID YOU WATCH THE GAME OR NOT? Why won't you answer this simple question?
     
  16. Manny Ramirez

    Manny Ramirez The Music Man

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    You just don't get it, do you? You hide behind all these stats and puff yourself up to make yourself look like you know what you are talking about, when in reality you have no clue and are talking out of your ass. The fact that you keep saying that you hope Josh Smith will be better than Tarik Black proves it. Look guy, Black is an undrafted rookie that spent time at Memphis AND Kansas. He is a serviceable player but will never be a starter on a good team...hell, he may not even be picked up by anybody for the rest of this season (although I do get the feeling that some crappy team will eventually take a flyer on him).

    Josh Smith was a lottery pick who didn't even go to college. He has been a starter pretty much his entire NBA career. He was highly sought after by the Rockets before he decided to go to the Pistons. As others have mentioned, he was an ill fit on that front line with Drummond and Monroe. Give him more than just one game before you judge his acquisition a success or not. Without him on Friday night, we lose plain and simple. Did he take some shots that I wasn't happy about?? Yes, he did but he also came up with some clutch rebounding and the Rockets were like +15 when he was on the floor. The thing is that he was ACTIVE and we need a guy like that. Give him some practices for Christ's sake and some more games before you rush to judgment on him.

    If I didn't know better, I would think you are my father posting here because he is a self-proclaimed Josh Smith hater (he is a huge Hawks fan) but he is a little irrational about it sorta like you...hmm...
     
  17. vator

    vator Contributing Member

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    This is a topic ender. Nothing else you have to say about his negative offense really matters. Although his field goal percentage may not be that great, a more advanced statistic shows that his overall impact on team offense over the duration of his career has not been bad and his overall impact offensively and defensively are among the best in the whole entire NBA. I'm pretty sure Dwight Howard's offensive XRAPM numbers are not that impressive either, but you have to look at the player as a whole and the entire package they bring to the game. Field goal percentage alone just doesn't do that in this case.
     
  18. mclawson

    mclawson Member

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    Shhh, that doesn't fit the narrative that he sucks. He's litterally the worst player in NBA history.
     
  19. Houston22

    Houston22 Member

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    I watched the game. While his shot selection didn't seem that bad, he seemed at times "entitled to take shots" as a 3rd star.
    This Houston where coaches don't say much to players and roles get more fought out than distributed, so this might turn out bad. We can only hope..
     
  20. sealclubber1016

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    He probably should be. The Rockets offense this season is all James Harden. If James Harden doesn't do something then is almost always results in a contested jumper. Ariza, Beverly, Terry and D-Mo (unless posted up) are all very poor creators. Harden is obviously the man, but if teams are overshading him, I'm fine with Smith doing exactly what he did.

    Smith was consistently attacking the rim, and getting shots in the paint. Getting in the paint also tends to create open shots for others. Plus you have Dwight Howard in there cleaning up messes when the guys go to stop Smith. That is a much, much better option than a contested 3.
     

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