Greg Cosell: Bridgewater, Bortles, Manziel worth a high pick if you're without a franchise guy and are looking for one? Tough question. You have to draft who is in this year's draft. As absolutes, separate from this draft, I don't believe any of the three are really surefire top ten picks in a draft, which means nothing in this year's draft. These are the guys available. I don't think that at any one of the three and say "That's a definite top ten pick in the draft, no question." David Fales as mid-round guy {for Titans}? He would be a mid round guy because of the arm strength issue. Jimmy Garappolo {for Ken Whisenhunt offense}? I watched a lot of him. I kinda like him. The more I watch, the more I sense he may have a stronger arm than he showed within the context of his own offense at Eastern Illinois. It was spread, one step drop stuff. You didn't see him drive the ball because it wasn't built in the offense. I thought his strengths were: light feet, repetitive lower body mechanics, compact delivery, and consistently accurate. Again, you didn't see him drive the ball because the nature of the offense. I sensed his arm was better and some guys improve as they mature in the NFL. He could be one of those guys. Same range as Fales? {If you compare the two of them in terms of total body of talent.} Fales is more advanced in the subtleties of the position. Garappolo may have a better arm. Now you have to study that hard and decide. Blake Bortles? The more I see, the more I like him. Again, not a great thrower. Now it comes down to how people view the position at the NFL level. Not a great thrower. He doesn't drive the ball. Quirky delivery so he tends to push the ball a little bit. Big, physical kid. Has movement to him. There were times I saw him show a real feel for pressure and necessary subtle pocket movement you need in the NFL. Today on February 12, if I had to say the guy I like the most, it would be Bortles with the traits he's exhibited that I've seen. Again, when you talk about QBs being high picks, there is no Andrew Luck in this draft. No one even in the same conversation. No one who's in the same book. A.J. McCarron? {His ceiling?} I come back to the same point: the evaluation of McCarron will be a function of the evaluators view of arm strength as a necessary NFL attribute. McCarron is a very mentally aware but physically limited QB. If you look at his physical attributes, they're more of a backup than true starter. At the end of the day, he's a pocket QB with some limitations throwing the ball. You have to decide if that's the profile of a quality NFL starter. If you feel good with that, if you have an offense built on a run game, then he can work for you. If he's playing on Seattle, he might work effectively. If he's playing on a team without a consistent run game and a defense that struggles, he may not be your guy. He's gonna be asked to do more than physically he is capable doing. Johnny Football? Here's the way I see him: I studied him maybe the hardest because he's the most polarizing player. As you evaluate him and transition him, there is a wide variation in his play. So there's a consistency issue. There's a lot to like but some that is concerning. How do you deal with that? He played 2 games this year: LSU and Missouri. If those were the first 2 games you put on and watched, you'd say he's almost undraftable. He was so bad in those 2 games. You struggle to figure out can I even draft this guy? Overall, he's a small QB with outstanding movement and improvisation. At times he showed very strong flashes of structured pocket play that clearly project to the NFL. It comes down to how you balance these issues. The other thing I say about Manziel: he's more of a see it, throw it QB than anticipation thrower. He's not really a timing/anticipation thrower on film. You have to figure out pros/cons and where you stand.
Draft Survey Pick breakdown (27 mocks): QB: 15 (55%), DE: 12 (45%) Most popular picks: South Carolina DE Jadeveon Clowney 12 (45%), Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater 7 (26%), UCF QB Blake Bortles 5 (19%) and Texas A&M QB Johnny Manziel 3 (11%)
(If the Texans go with Clowney #1, I would be happy if the Texans can nab this kid in the 2nd round.) excellent breakdown of my dark horse QB pick for the Texans: Jimmy Garopollo http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1937011-2014-nfl-draft-full-breakdown-of-jimmy-garoppolos-game
Kiper/McShay podcast Kiper: Your take on Manziel, Bortles and Bridgewater (come May 8) McShay: Seems like Manziel is the flavor of the day, that everyone is most intrigued by. I feel really good about where I am with the top 3 QBs and McCarron at 4 probably. I see it differently than most. Teddy Bridgewater is the steady Eddy of the group. I put on his tape, it's not always against great competition but he's quick in his drop, quick with his feet, he knows where he's going with the football, he's decisive, he's smart, he's tough, he'll hang in the pocket and take a big hit and most importantly, he's the most accurate of all these QBs right now. He's the most polished. If I had one game to play, I would say Teddy is our safest best to go win this game in the NFL today. Manziel - I don't know that I scouted a player like him. I grew up in Boston. I watched Doug Flutie and I think it's probably a little bit like that. There's not many guys like him. Physical traits, probably 6' at best, massive hands, size 15 foot, he's not thick but not as slight as his measurables would indicate. He got that big bone look to him, which is important. At the end of the day, the biggest three things with Manziel, while he can create like no other, he's a gamer, he's tough, he just makes plays man. I love watching this guy on tape and love what he can do and as a teammate, I would respect the heck out of him and would follow him down any path and any ally but as a coach and GM, I don't know that I trust him in terms of his decision making and consistency and staying healthy. You can say that with any prospect but there are odds and probabilities. The durability is a concern long term because of the style of play. The decision making is frightening. Watching coaches copy tape, some of the plays he makes, he eludes 4 guys, he's throwing off his back foot and across his body, you can't make those throws in the league. You can't get away with it. When I watch him against the blitz, it's almost like watching pickup basketball. He has no intention of going through a hot read or identifying a blitzer and beating it with his arm. He's baiting them to come and he'll bail out and roll outside and try to create a play. It didn't work at times this year late in the season when he wore down and I think that's a preview of what's gonna happen at the next level. Even though he was dominate in college football, he has the most developing to do. He of the 3 scares me the most. Blake Bortles: The only thing he is missing is a big time arm. He has functional arm strength. He has adequate NFL arm strength. It's average. You have to put him in a system where you're not asking him to drive the ball down the field like Joe Flacco but not like you have to hide his arm like Chad Pennington either. He's very intelligent with his reads. He has fast eyes, feet are married to his eyes, he's a gamer, he's tough, he's very mobile for his size and when it's all said and done, he has the best upside of these QBs. It's very close between him and Bridgewater. Bortles is stronger and sturdier and I feel like in the long run, I feel more confident he'll stay healthy. I have almost identical grades on Bortles and Bridgewater, kinda in the mid-first round range and late first round on Johnny Manziel. After that, it's the rest of the group. A.J. McCarron is probably second tier. We have a lot of big name guys: Zach Mettenberger, Jimmy Garappolo, Logan Thomas(oozing with talent but still so much work to do), Aaron Murray, Derek Carr(who I got a 5th round grade on), Stephen Morris, Taj Boyd, even David Fales. You're talking 12/13 QBs who will be off the board in the first 5/6 rounds and a handful more in the 6/7/UDFA range. Kiper: I think the thing with Bridgewater is that schedule. It didn't allow for many signature wins. That doesn't mean anything. We always harp on games. I go back to Roethlisberger, Culpepper, Peyton Manning. Did Manning going 0-4 against Florida affect how he played in the NFL? Did Roethlisberger looking terrible at Iowa...it was awful. Culpepper played poorly against Auburn. It didn't matter. To go back to Bortles, it's ball placement. He needs to work on that and accuracy down the field. The Baylor game, first half he struggled. 10 minute mark 3rd Q, he slipped, he righted himself, he made an accurate throw down the right sideline and from that point on, got in a zone. I think he has upside but it may be a year learning curve for him coming into the NFL. The guy who is polarizing because he won and has the intangibles but didn't go to the Senior Bowl, doesn't have the big time arm, very average arm, what kind of pro QB will A.J. McCarron be? McShay: I think you draft him with the mindset that he can be a very good backup but also a chance to develop into a starter. A.J. McCarron has a functional NFL arm but you have to be on time and can't allow your WRs to get past a certain point and think you can still make the throw vertically because you'll wind up sailing the ball and your WR will have to go make a play. A lot of times Amari Cooper went up and made a play. I love his attitude. He has some dirt to him. He's a tough guy, he doesn't care. There are some guys turned off by the way he is. I love it. He understands situations. He's an intelligent QB in terms of managing the game. I'm not saying he's a game manager but he understands managing the game as a QB. I think he's accurate, he has good accuracy short to intermediate but I'll say this and people will think I'm crazy: for as many starts as he as and as of big a program he played at, 36-4 as a starter, 2 championships, all the accolades he has, I think McCarron has developing to do still. His mechanics in his lower body, it's a little like Manziel at times and a lot like Derek Carr at times. Not transferring weight, not stepping...fundamental basic stuff. He has gotten into bad habits of throwing off his back foot. It's something easily correctable but it's something he's been doing now and it's gotten worse over the last couple years. He has the size, he has some mobility, he has to feel the speed of the game and figure out what does he want to do when the pocket breaks down around him. He's capable of beating it but he hasn't seen it a lot. I think he needs more experience with that. If he works out his mechanics, he can develop into a starter but I draft him in the 2nd round because then the pressure isn't there and if develops into just a really good backup, I can live with it. Logan Thomas: Kiper: I think he can be a TE. I don't see QB unless you wait 2-3 years. He got the size and arm but wildly inconsistent. TE may be his spot. Jordan Lynch: Kiper: Great kid. Incredible competitor. He wants to be a QB. He wants a shot to be a QB. I think he's a RB or a safety. He wants to be a QB.
"He's the most polished. If I had one game to play, I would say Teddy is our safest best to go win this game in the NFL today."
Let me help you. For one, he had a better college career than Clowney. Clowney: 3 years, 87 solo tackles, 24 sacks Barr: 2 years( I am assuming due to injury. His junior year was his first ), 97 solo tackles, 23 sacks (and since people keep throwing Trevardo's name out there) Williams: 4 years, 84 solo tackles, 29 sacks( no longer should be mentioned ) Quite convincing. Does this help?
Pretty sure Barr only has two years of stats because he was a running back/full back for his first two years of college. That's another reason why people are so impressed with him. The stats he has put up so quickly, in converting to defense. I know this changes every day, but something tells me there's no way we draft Manziel. Something tells me it will be down to Bortles, Bridgewater, or Garropolo. If we can trade out of number one, and get Clowney, Barr, Mack, or even Watkins, and then get some extra picks, all the while waiting until the third round (or at the very earliest, late second) to get Jimmy G, I'd be thrilled with that, too.
You don't draft players off their stats in college. When you get doubled on passing plays and ran away from the numbers will drop. JJ Watt only had 11.5 career college sacks in 2 years.
Not in the least because it doesn't change the fact that Barr is a really really raw speed rusher with basically no pass rush moves just like Travardo. Case Keenum and Tim Tebow had amazing college careers but that doesn't really matter when you get to the NFL. You have to look at skillset and Barr is just too unrefined as a pass rusher to even be considered for a top 5 pick. He could one day learn the position and be awesome, but so could Williams.
And Selvie was unstoppable. Nobody looks at stats man. I'm sick and tired of people bringing up stats or where someone played. None of that **** matters.
Not to mention Clowney is considered a "once in a decade" prospect and Barr is not. Speaking of J.J... He's a "once in a decade" player but wasn't considered a "once in a decade" prospect. The thing about defensive players particularly defensive linemen and linebackers there are usually an abundance of good ones so you don't have to always go for the top prospect... Especially a defensive pass rusher that isn't a prospect like Peppers.
That's exactly why I don't see why the Texans HAVE to pick Clowney first overall. Aldon Smith was considered to be a better pass rusher than Watt, hell most of the mocks actually projected him to fall to us while JJ went to the Patriots (thank God that didn't happen). But guys like Marcell Dareus, Von Miller and Nick Fairley were projected as better players than JJ at the time. Blaine Gabbert was supposed to be the Niners pick according to everyone's analysis. Things change and once these kids turn into men (some do sooner than others) then they show their worth. Clowney is a good prospect but has been overhyped due to the sportcenter highlights and the over the top expectations set on him since last year. Everyone knows who I believe deserves to be the #1 overall pick if we don't trade it, but I won't spill that debate into this thread. Hopefully the Texans figure this out correctly throughout the combine process.
The only reason why the Texans HAVE to pick Clowney first overall is because there isn't anyone else in the draft worth a first overall pick. The way I see it, the only real question is if they want to pick Clowney, or trade down. Picking a QB for the sake of picking a QB is how you draft the Alex Smith's of the world.
Again, I'm not spilling the debate over into this thread, but there are some that believe differently. So no, you don't HAVE to take Clowney and you're not "playing it safe" if you take a QB. If anything that's the biggest risk to take with your first overall pick. Carolina took the risk and it paid off for them (even though Cam wasn't a "surefire prospect"). St. Louis did the same, but it hasn't worked out as well for them. Different players, different drafts, different scouts; everything will depend on what the Texans brain-trust gather for themselves. I'm hoping it's the correct decision whether it's my choice or someone else's.
I'm not advocating for a quarterback... If you're "STUCK" with the #1 pick it's best to go best player/prospect available. BUT that may not only be Clowney. It could be Sammy Watkins and in a passing league that's the next best thing to drafting a great quarterback prospect which most scouts consider not to exist in this draft. And great #1 receivers are as hard to find as quarterbacks. And Sammy appears to be just that. Best option for the Texans is to hope someone wants to trade up for Clowney because I don't think a team will trade up for one of these quarterbacks... IMO.
I LOVE Sammy Watkins. Would be a terrific pick around the 4th or 5th spot of the draft. I really haven't seen much of Greg Robinson but everyone seems to be leaning towards him over Jake Matthews as the first lineman off the board. I'd still take Jake around that same draft spot, that's just me. I believe Sammy is going to be a superstar receiver and it would be awesome to pair him with his college running mate, the only problem is who will be throwing to him; Schaub, Kennum, Yates, FA QB?
I wasn't trying to have that debate spill over, but that IS the reason, if there is one, that the Texans HAVE to take Clowney if they stick with the first pick. Obviously if you believe that one of the QB's are worth the #1 pick, which is becoming less and less of a popular opinion, in fact Greg Cosell who was often quoted by the Bridgewater crowd a few weeks ago just came out and said that after extensively viewing the all-22 no QB in this class is worth a top 10 pick.
