A very good mix I have been thinking about our line up and can’t help but get excited. We have improved in two and maybe 3 very important positions, Power Forward, Shooting Guard and maybe Center. We have remained constant in our Small Forward spot with a drop off at Point Guard. Below is a break down of each position and a list of Free Agents both restricted and un restricted that I think could help the Rockets. Center Position - Very Good and Improved: Yao Ming should be better. He was already the second best center in the game behind only Shaq last year but with Shaq moving to the East, Yao is with out a doubt the best in the West. Most people said that it would take 3 to 4 years before we would see Yao Ming do the things we saw in his rookie year. When he was first drafted almost no one thought that he would be as far along in his development as he is now. I will be surprised if Yao Ming does not become a 20+ point a game scorer. While his stamina was a cause for concern last year it was certainly much better than it was in his rookie year when he completely fizzled out in the last month of the season. We have no real back up at Center yet but with the way the roster is now at least we can put people in place that can score in abundance even if they don’t provide the kind of force that Cato did as Yao Ming’s back up the last two years. There are still some candidates out there that might be able to give us some decent contributions in limited minutes like Keon Clark, Menke Bateer or even Joel Pryzbilla. I don’t think we need someone to give us big minutes off of the bench just someone who can play some defense and grab some boards while Yao Ming is on the bench. Even with out Cato our center position looks to be better. It would be nice to see the Rockets find a way to acquire Chris Mihm. He has really turned into a decent player and is probably the one free agent that has a fairly complete game. He can score, block shots and rebound plus he could also play the Power Forward position if needed. I think he could really give the Rockets a good 15 - 18 minutes off of the bench. Of course he is a restricted free agent so who knows what it would take to get him? Power Forward Position - Good and Improved: Even with the loss of Kelvin Cato it is hard to argue that this position will not be better. Juwan Howard is not the defensive presence that Cato is but he rebounds just as well and is light years better than Cato at putting the ball in the basket. Howard provides almost the exact same production regardless of where he plays. With Washington, Dallas, Denver and Orlando, Juwan Howard always put up about 17 points and 7 rebounds. Plus with Howard in the line-up it makes it harder for other teams to double Yao Ming in the paint which was not the case with Cato in the line-up. Maurice Taylor is with out a doubt one of the best 6th men in the league and has proven he can come in and carry the team offensively at times. I expect him to be better in JVG’s system this year. Clarence Weatherspoon was a rock for the Rockets last year. He did exactly what the Rockets asked him to do, he got rebounds while he was in the game and hit over 50% of his shots while with the Rockets last year. Clarence was a very quality back up last year and at only about 15 minutes a game should be just as good this year. Scott Padgent can also come off of the bench to provide some deep outside shooting. I really can’t see how the Rockets could improve this position with out going after a starter like Shareef Abdur Rahim but how do you attain a player of his caliber with what the Rockets would be willing to give up. All 4 Power Forwards can score which is a big plus. We have our project player at this position with Malick Badiane and if we happen to land Chris Mihm or Keon Clark to back up the 5 spot then we would have extra insurance at the 4 since both can play the 4. Small Forward - Good and ?: With Jim Jackson manning this position it is going to be good and some nights great. Jackson was outstanding at hitting the 3 point shot last season and might have been the most consistent player on the team. Good defense, good offense and very smart player. He has been both a star player and a role player. Bostjan Nachbar is the real key to this position in my opinion. Last year at the end of the season and in the play offs he started playing with a lot of confidence. He is not the outside shooter that some thought he was but he can get to the basket almost at will. At the beginning of the season he seemed to lack the confidence to finish plays at the rim but at the end of the season that seems to have changed. The highlight of his season had to be giving Karl Malone a facial at one end of a fast break and then blocking a Malone dunk attempt at the other end of a fast break with such authority that Malone ended up on his back under the basket. Boki also plays good tight perimeter defense which is highly underrated by many on this bbs. If Boki continues to improve from the end of last season he may very well be the future for the Rockets at the small forward position or even push Jim Jackson for minutes this year. If he starts out the season like last year with low confidence and not finishing plays at the basket then we could find our selves in a lot of trouble if Jim Jackson goes down. Free agents that would be good additions to this team would be: Darius Miles , an outstanding defender, freakishly athletic, can finish as strong at the rim as anyone but he has little outside shot. Rodney White would also be intriguing because of his age and talent level but he has not shown much in his NBA career. Absolutely anyone on the list of Small Forward free agents would provide the Rockets with some quality depth IMO. Shooting Guard - Outstanding and Much Improved: Cat was good but Tracy McGrady is arguably a top 5 player in the league. McGrady is the same caliber shooting guard as Kobe but even younger at only 25. If Pike can find the outside shot that he lost last season then that would be an even bigger bonus. Jim Jackson is also a very valuable back up at this position if need. What Reece Gaines can give us here is still unknown. There are players on the free agent list that could really help this team. Wesley Person is one of the better shooters in the game and shoots over 40% from behind the arc for his career. Bob Sura is a very good defender and can provide some offense when need. Both of these players could be huge off of the bench for us next season in 10 - 15 minutes a game. Point Guard - Poor and Much Worse: Tyrone Lue would be a very good back up and might be smarter than Steve Francis but there is just no way to make a case that he is even in the same galaxy as Francis was as a player. We have absolutely zero proven depth at this position. We could hope that Reece Gaines turns unto a player but at this point we just don’t know. The good news is that JVG is only asking his point guard to play good defense, don’t turn the ball over, make good passes into the post and hit his outside shots. All happen to be things that Lue can do. Even with Lue at his best this position needs a shot in the arm. Possibly Gaines will start performing but more than likely we will have to get someone via free agency or through trade. Antonio Daniels, Damon Jones or Mike James would all provide help and turn the point guard position into a solid position for the Rockets. The trade-exception: If the Rockets don’t do something with this then it will certainly expose the Glen Rice trade to Utah as one of the worst trades in all of sports. A trade that had absolutely zero to do with the product on the floor and in fact hurt the product on the floor in order to save a buck. Notice that I am not assigning blame to anyone, instead I will just leave it as a management mistake. If the soon to expire trade exception is used to help the Rockets get a difference maker on the floor then and only then will the Glen Rice trade be seen as something more than a horrible management move. What the Rockets need: Obviously the biggest need is at point guard. After that it looks like back up center for Yao Ming. The bench seems week at 4 of the 5 positions on the floor. Adding players such as Damon Jones, Darius Miles and Chris Mihm as well as the development of Bostjan Nachbar and Reece Gains could turn our bench into a strength. Getting Jason Kidd from New Jersey would be a real coup using the trade exception but I don’t know if 6.9 million in cap space would be enough to interest New Jersey for Kidd, especially if they had to take a player back that they do not want. In my opinion management has had a stellar off season. They have not over paid for anyone like many of the other teams have done and there is still an abundance of free agents on the market that can fill many of the roles that need to be filled on the Rockets . Perhaps by not overpaying we have positioned ourselves to get a couple of the free agents that are still left while still leaving us in a position to be a player in the free agent market a few years down the road. Free Agents: Centers Joel Pryzbilla Chris Marcus Keon Clark Menk Bateer Jake Tsakalidis - r Chris Mihm - r Eric Dampier - r Power Forwards Tyrone Hill Donnell Harvey Marcus Fizer Ousmane Cisse Stromile Swift - r Small Forward Rodney White Terrence Morris Darvin Ham Eric Williams Calbert Chaney Darius Miles - r Shooting Guard Wesley Person Bob Sura Courtney Alexander Jon Barry Point Guards Charlie Ward Daman Jones Mike James Jamal Crawford - r
Very good analysis, I would expect Yao's back up to be more important than PG based solely on the quality of PG's left or possible. Yao cannot get injured. Yao must play more minutes with more energy And Yao must have a solid backup Lue + one of the better Pg still attainable will be sufficient. We are improved already at PG because we will have fewer bonehead turnovers at that position.
All that Yao has to do to be much improved over last year is to not fall down and have the ball stripped from his blind side multiple times a game.
Just to clear that last part up, you cannot trade the TE and another player for a contract or contracts worth more than $6.9mil, correct?
I disagree. I think Howard has better offense capabilities than MoT. Just his defense I'm worried about...
You nailed it. The off-season is just to long. I also wanted to show that there were still plenty of good free agents left.
that is correct but maybe you could take trade MoT and Spoon for Kidd and then use the TE to take the Morning contract off of their hands. Off course this is just an example but I have no real illussions of getting Kidd but we can dream can't we?
Howard will not provide the same type of interior defense that Cato could but I would think he would be a lot better at guarding the more mobile Power Forwards that gave Cato fits.
I agree with most assessments except for the PG position. While Steve Francis is a lot better than any PG we'll have next year, he was not productive last year. Go by last year's production at the point between Francis and MJ. Jackson and Francis were absolutely atrocious from the outside, contributing to more double teams on Yao. Both shot poorly overall. Plus we had high TOs and mediocre defense at the position, while not much great passing. If their replacements can hit a good % from beyond the arc and take care of the ball, this could very well be minimum loss. Howard's a perenial 17+ ppg scorer, shoots an very good %, has both a great jumpshot and post moves. Cato isn't the best man-to-man defender in the game, and has been abused more than a few times by the great PF of the western conference. The guy is hardly Ben Wallace on D. Considering how much of a liability Cato is on offense, Howard would have to be an absolute stiff on defense for them to cancel each other out. I rarely see Howard play, but the guy isn't a bad defender that gets lit up every night.
Francis wasn't productive last season? That's not even funny, it's SAD! You could argue only one other guy on the Rockets that produced as much or more than Francis. Bruce Bowen is one of the better 3 point shooters in the league and nobody hesitates to double Duncan off of him, so that point is absolutely invalid. Playmaking PG's will ALWAYS have a high amount of turnovers that's just a fact of the NBA, and since Francis was the only playmaker on the team it shouldn't surprise anyone that he would turn the ball over a lot. Lue won't turn the ball over, and will hit a good % of his shots, but the loss will still be HUGE, because EVERY team in the NBA will hold the advantage at PG. Well since Howard formed half of the NBA's worst interior defense maybe he is a stiff on defense. Cato on the other hand formed half of one the NBA's best interior defenses, hmm... Besides man, defense and rebounding win championships, Howard isn't as good as Cato in either category.
It's actually a hybrid of the preview, it looks back but at the same time looks forward, not bad, eh?
excellent post, I agree with most and realize that our PG position has obviously declined but it certainly could be a blessing in disguise considering the fact SF3 did not fit in our plans nor our style of play.
Good post! I won't worry about Howard's defence if he can stay with the opponent PF. Once that PF drives to the basket, there will be our big man waiting to block the shot
On the subject of Francis, I didn't explain it too well. I feel that Francis was not productive enough to warrant the "Point Guard - Poor and Much Worse" description of next year's PG position. Francis' play last year was probably a bit above average in the NBA for his position. His ppg was great, but shot a terrible % and didn't go to the line as much as he used to. He did rebounded well. But his overall passing was mediocre, as evidenced by a bad assist/to ratio. His inability to hit the outside jumper with regularity also hindered the offense that does not show up in his stats. Overall, if Lue puts up something like 8 points with decent FG%, 3-4 assists, minimal TOs, then I don't think this position gets a huge loss. As for your argument on Howard and Cato's defenses, I just want to point out Rasheed Wallace. No one in his right mind would believe that Rasheed Wallace just happened to go from being a mediocre defender in Portland to a supreme defender in Detroit in less than a week. Even if those two teams had vastly different levels of defenses.
