(The Ringer) Rockets seriously interested in Robert Covington trade

A defensive center is always more valuable than a defensive wing of similar ability for impacting the game.

Defensive centers provide shot blockers to erase mistakes by guards or forwards with help defense, having a defensive shot blocker actually improves your perimeter defense by having your guards be able to overplay the three point line and funnel opponent guards for long twos or risk getting thier shots blocked. Our wings also gamble on defense at times for steals and can do that with Clint behind them.

Capela is a rich man's Noel and the team is built to win now. Look at the top defensive players throughout history, the majority are always bigs.

Capela is also important for the offense, he provides a lob threat for Harden drives and runs the floor in transition, with a nice touch around the rim for a very high percentage. His total impact is not just defense as well.

I like Covington or a defensive wing, but the idea of trading Capela for him would be a bad idea imo.

 

I personally am pretty confident they would be able to get Noel or another suitable defensive center.

As for Harden, he isn't really an issue defensively when he there are a couple good defensive players around him. So his defense doesn't concern me with an elite defensive wing added. As for Westbrook, his defense is just inconsistent. He has improved over last year. He is CAPABLE of being a good defender and his tendency to go for steals is less of an issue with others switching.

Maybe I am overly optimistic but I do believe they could be a top 5 defense with a couple moves like Covington and Noel.... with the Rockets sometimes it is more than the sum of their parts.

 

What is concerning is that in the playoffs good teams put a big in there to stand tall and clog the paint limiting Harden - and double him on the perimeter.......

What we need is someone that can hit a FT Line extended jumper as a big, or better a 3pt shooting big to force that strategy to fall apart with wide open 3s.....

I understand other would do things differently, I just believe that is the missing piece.....

And Name calling is ridiculous - feel free to have a different opinion - ****ing Trump has screwed over decorum in this country.

DD

 

What name did I call you?

And feel free to refute that Bertrans would be a specialist on this team while Covington would be a starter.

Ryno is better shooter, rebounder and spacer but he could not even get minutes last 2 seasons.

 

For the overwhelming majority of the history of the NBA, this is true but not so much in 2019. Centers are still important but the style of game has changed and what is a good defensive center largely relies on match ups and style of play. We have seen guys like Gobbert exploited in certain match ups because they exploit his foot speed. We have seen Capela at times struggle against someone like Draymond Green because he cannot switch quick enough.

It is a lot more complicated now. I would argue that long, athletic wings that can guard multiple spots at a high level are as important defensively as anyone else on the court. Being able to put a player like Leonard or George on a variety of players really makes a huge difference.

Defensive centers can certainly limit penetration...... if they are not going against another center that can shoot from the outside or switch. With the improved three point shooting and frequency, you can in neutralize many centers. Now, there are still teams like the Lakers that can cause issues, but there are many more that do not.

As far as gambling by the wings, the Rockets players could do the same with someone like Noel out there and FWIW someone like Covington alters a lot of shots and can cover for a lot of sins by the back court, including quickly cutting of players on switches.

History doesn't mean a whole lot right now because the game has radically changed in the last 5 years because of Curry and Harden. Teams are shooting 40+ 3's a game now.

Noel finishes well too, and is every bit as fast up and down the court. Being able to go small with Covington at the 5 also will improve the offense, as there will be another player that can contribute more than 5 feet from the basket.

It depends on how much confidence you have that someone like Noel or Holmes can play 25 minutes a night and contribute.

 

Spoiler

Did someone say defensive center?



We got a pretty good one.



We'll be fine.

 

We’ve seen top defensive guards get exposed on a nightly basis in the three point era because the didn't switch quick enough, George and Leonard included at times. I agree they are important, but they still aren’t more important than a defensive big of equal ability.

You can have a three point shooting center but you still put your self at risk for having less rebounds and it doesn’t guarantee you will neutralize an athletic, mobile center like Capela.

There are team support and other factors, but if a three point shooting center provided a mismatch we can take KAT vs Capela. KAT has played well offensively, yet his defense is terrible so his team struggles.

Capela also has a 11-1 landslide in wins vs KAT. Now of course Harden and others are a major contributors, but the idea of a three point shooting center neutralizing him doesn’t hold up imo. Here is the head to head comparison and win totals.

https://www.basketball-reference.co...nthony+Towns&player_id2=townska01&idx=players

Noel can, but he’s not only a poorer man defensively, he’s not as good offensively either. Capela is just a more impactful player at both ends. And he’s proven himself with established minute loads and roles. We’d have to hope Noel could fulfill his potential (which he hasn’t yet in years in the league) with a team who’s stars are over 30 and built to win now.

I like Covington I agree, but not at the cost of trading Capela or even Tucker.

Not really, the past two years DPOY award winners are Gobert a center.

https://www.nba.com/history/awards/defensive-player-of-the-year/

Also Marc Gasol was the best defensive player for Toronto’s championship team last year over Kawhi, leading the team in DBPM in both regular season and playoffs, a center.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2019.html

I agree, with the first point. Although going small doesn’t always guarantee better offense. We’re top 5 in offense now with Capela doing great.

Noel hasn’t fully developed his potential with years in the league, and Covington has health issues. I like those players, but neither are worth trading Capela for and their track records are spotty for playing those minutes for a whole season consistently.

Covington is solid, not taking away I would want him. But not at the cost of losing Capela.

 

Tyson Chandler fits the bill perfectly but he won't play him.

 

The same is true for centers though. We have seen teams exploit Gobbert in some match ups as well.

There is no question that you will likely get less rebounds. You can off set that somewhat with good rebounders at other positions. As far as neutralizing someone like Capela, you can largely neutralize them with a mobile center that can run and hit 3's. We say the Warriors do that with Draymond Green. It puts a lot more stress on the defense and leads to better spacing and more open shots.

Right now the league is more match up oriented than it has been in at least a decade. Also, we are in agreement about having a poor defensive center that shots 3's doesn't help much. However Covington and Noel are not poor defenders.

There are a lot of reasons that the Rockets have won against the Wolves, and Capela is certainly part of the reason, especially when the Rockets can run, KAT has no interest in getting into the middle of the situation. We have seen centers that can shoot or pass well outside of the paint neutralize him. Green did it for the Warriors. it causes issues.

Of course Capela is more impactful, he makes 16 times as much as Noel. The question is whether Covington and Noel together make a bigger impact.

As for Noel, we would really only need him to do what he has for the last few years, but over 25 minutes instead of 18. He defends well, he runs the break well, he also finishes well. There isn't a really big offensive difference IMO to the extent that what we ask Capela to do offensively is very limited.

Honestly this doesn't mean much to me........ those same people have robbed Harden of at least 1-2 MVP's.

DBPM is but one stat, but I agree in a half court game Gasol is a very good defender.

I agree that going small isn't always guarantee a better offense, what it does is allow for more looks based on match ups.

We are a top 5 offense, but with better spacing we would by far be the best offense in the league.

I respect your opinion and you bring up valid points. I think it is worth the risk as I do not believe the Rockets as currently constructed get out of the second round of the playoffs.

 

Man’o’man is Capela under appreciated here. Ridiculous.

 

among centers he is
9th in points
2nd in rebounds
4th in blocks.
8th in PER is you only take into account centers who play more than 20 minutes

not amazing but we act like we have no body at center right now

 

These people are seriously on something if they think we get better by trading Clint for Covington. If he has such a huge impact on defense why is Minnesota trash? Why is he a net negative? You want to trade size for another damn wing ? We need a real 4 with size not a skinny 6’7 player. Clint is having a career year and you want to trade him for an older, less productive player. Im glad none of you are in the front office

 

Bertans article on ESPN today:

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2. Davis Bertans panic
No healthy 3-point shooter inspires more wide-eyed, hair-on-fire panic among defenders than the 2019-20 version of Bertans. Dude is shooting with guys almost literally crawling up his jersey.

He will jack from 30 feet. He is a laughable 25-of-61 on tightly guarded 3s, per NBA.com. He has hit 46.7% of both catch-and-shoot and pull-up looks, and he already has made almost as many of the latter (14) as he did in the prior three seasons combined with San Antonio (20). He might start shooting lefty just for fun.

When you get Kawhi Leonard running at you as if he is rescuing someone from a burning building, you know you've made it:

Stephen Curry.

That's the list. Curry has done it four times. His best hit rate in those seasons: 45.7%. Curry's attempt profile was obviously tougher than Bertans', but Bertans is enjoying one of the greatest seasons of long-range shooting.

The Wizards have scored 115.5 points per 100 possessions with Bertans on the floor. That would rank second among teams. Don't bother rebutting this by pointing out Bertans rains fire against opposing benches or that Washington's defense stinks regardless. Don't be that guy. The 2019-20 Wizards are not a vehicle for serious analysis. They exist only to entertain, and they are succeeding thanks in large part to the Latvian Laser.

Listen



If Bertans isn't in the 3-point shootout at All-Star weekend, what are we even doing? Right now, there are four non-stars that absolutely need invites: Bertans, Duncan Robinson, Joe Harris (defending champ should get an automatic berth, and Harris deserves it) and Devonte' Graham.

By the way: Graham is averaging 20 points and eight dimes per game. Has any player ever appeared in the 3-point contest, whatever the rookie-sophomore abomination is called now and the actual All-Star Game in the same season?

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https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28243840/ten-nba-things-like-including-miami-motion-blur

Interesting.

DD

 

Fair enough, you try to bring evidence to support your points so I respect your opinon as well, we can agree to disagree with trading Capela.

But I am with you that we need to improve defensively and a defensive wing or two would get us there.

I'm for Morey finding a lesser name, hidden gem type player or make a smaller move for one. The team also plays better after all star break and has shown flashes of a top 5 defense at times, so we'll see.

 

Bertans is a free agent after the season & Tilman wouldn't pay him to keep him. He'd be a rental.

Davis Bertans Could Sign For At Least $15M Per Season In Offseason

Davis Bertans is on a $7 million expiring deal and is having a career season with the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards acquired Bertans from the San Antonio Spurs this past offseason in a deal that was made for the Spurs to sign Marcus Morris.

Opinions vary on what Bertans will get on the open market.

“He will get between $15M and $20M (per year) this summer.” said one former front office person. “Most likely for a two-year deal. Don’t see him getting a four-year deal.”

One GM didn’t agree with that assessment.

“He will not get 20M,” the GM texted. “(There’s) only six teams with space.”

 

He would be a good rental if he can be had for a second round pick. We would get his bird rights also.

 

Too cheap, WW will demand,that for sure.

 

I know we need defense more than offense right now but grabbing Bertans just as an asset may be worth it.

I’m also curious about just how good we would be on the offensive side with him in the rotation. Would open so many things up, ease everyone’s minutes. Would still not be defensively good enough to win the title though.

 

Always is a strong word. I think there are plenty of times when a defensive wing is superior to a defensive center. in particular, I believe that the Rockets are far less challenged by a strong defensive center (Gobert) than a strong defensive wing (Leonard). I think the pre-2019 Warriors are the same way. Any team that's able switch into favorable isolations and has the outside shooters to destroy opponents from the 3pt line can pretty much neutralize the defensive value of most centers.

 

One thing to keep in mind is context as well as them having equal ability.

When the Rockets played Gobert, they also played his teammates. None of which are on our level offensively to beat us, that is why he wasn't a challenge compared to Kawhi who is a star offensively as well. That Utah team doesn't have players as good as Kawhi, Pascal Siakam or even role players like Lowry offensively.

They had Donovan Mitchell, but lacked depth offensively which is why we could focus on him to win the series.

Same thing with GSW, you have to look at the whole picture. We were facing not just Draymond, but also Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, two all time great offensive players and Klay Thompson who is an all time great shooter. We lost to arguably one of the greatest teams ever assembled who also had a 73 win record during that span. They are a freak, extreme example in NBA history talentwise.

Take away that talent and how has Draymond done this season when healthy? Or even with Curry when both are healthy? Can we beat them in the playoffs (which they very likely won't be in) and will Capela be neutralized?

So I disagree there, but everyone has a right to thier own opinon.

Also we can look at Kawhi himself. When he won DPOY what was his team support? Tim Duncan at 39 was the team leader in DBPM the first year over Kawhi and a hair behind him the second year.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2015.html

Kawhi had Gasol as the better defensive player at Toronto in the RS and playoffs, it's not a coincedence.

Now there are exceptional defensive guards, Kawhi, LeBron who can change a game defensively at the wing position, you are right.

But they are not the majority even now and Covington hasn't shown himself to be that special above the norm.