I'm again ignoring the GOP race, because it's just a matter of time until McCain clinches. Romney got demolished today, both by McCain and by Huckabee, oddly enough. But what has been forgotten in the craziness of Super Tuesday is that there's a lot of elections in the next week: 2/9: Louisiana, Nebraska (C), Washington (C) 2/10: Maine (C) 2/12: DC, Maryland, Virginia Then: 2/19: Hawaii (C), Wisconsin (C) = Caucus The vast majority of these should favor Obama due to a combination of demographics and caucus-ness, but I don't know what the status of campaigning has been. After 2/19, we have a 2-week pause until the Texas/Ohio weekend. Obama has to win the majority of these to have a shot on March 4th. The longer he can extend this, the better for him - he keeps growing his money advantage and his overall poll numbers tend to slowly rise. Most importantly, he gets to focus on a few states at a time, which plays to his advantage. In general, this is kind of consistently do-or-die for Obama, moreso than for Hillary. He has to keep building momentum to move on to the next group of states. He doesn't need to win win them all, but he needs to win a majority and win the overall delegate picture.
The only thing is that with Obama expected to do better in the upcoming primaries he'll have to win those in order to just hold even. If Hillary makes them close in most of them she can spin it to be her momentum.
Absolutely - it will be the reverse of today. Today was supposed to be Obama's worst day in terms of distribution of states, # of states, and time to campaign. Breaking even can be claimed as a win by both sides. Going forward, though, Obama has to win a majority. He can't just settle for splits.
Major, with asides like this, you may get demoted. Like it or not, Huckabee strikes a harmonious chord with a great many voters. Now, aside from that, Obama may take some or most of the states you mentioned. However, Hillary is just biding her time until the "Super Delegates" (also known as the party machinery) can be bought Clinton-style. This is where Obama loses -- I'll be surprised if he pulls it off.
It's amazing. Even with declared super delegates which could change at any time Hillary is only up by 70 delegates. There are contests this Saturday, and then Chesapeake Tuesday. It will be very interesting to see what happens after that. Obama has to do well, because March 4th states seem to favor Clinton. Though if Obama can keep some of those close, anything can happen.
The early polls I'm seeing in TX, OH and PA heavily favor Hellafat Has anyone seen anything different?
On the Huckabee thing - certainly true. But most expectations were that Romney would be more competitive yesterday than Romney. On the Super-Delegates, that will certainly be very interesting. Two things of note though - over the last several weeks, Obama is the one getting the vast majority of endorsements and such. All of those people are super-delegates and he's been closing the gap (albeit very slowly there). I think Clinton is slowly losing her "establishment favorite" status, so I'm not sure superdelegates will swing in mass over to her. I think they will swing to the winner of the regular delegate counts for the most part. If they didn't, there would be a huge revolt within the party.
Absolutely - but this is the pattern. 2-3 weeks before every state's voting, Obama has been down by 20+ points in most cases. He was down 30+ in MA, NJ, CT, and 20+ in MO, CA, AZ, NM, etc. It's simply due to name recognition in areas that haven't focused on politics and the lack of campaigning. He makes up ground when he starts focusing on a state and when people simply start paying attention. I wouldn't worry about TX/OH/PA polls until after Feb 19th. He only has 4 days until the next set of states though. With his money advantage, he already started advertising in some of the 2/12 states last week, but I don't about he weekend states.
Actually I have read that when all the delegates are counted, Obama will actually have a small lead... 841 to 837. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23019673/
(Just a sidetrack, not a highjack ) Forgive me if this was discussed in another thread, but Seriously !??! Hellafat? Is that what you got? That's what you came up with ? The "H" and two "L's", okay, but that's hardly enough. And "Hella fat?" Really ? She's average fat at best. I imagine that kind of exagerration is what let you to your user name , eh? How 'bout just call her "hAveragefat" and we'll call you "teenyokieee." As you were.
We've seen that relying on polls is almost as silly as relying on the future's market. You've been wrong in declaring Hillary's campaign the winner so many times last night, that my head is spinning.
i saw a poll yesterday that had obama with a 10 point lead in california. ummm..no. these polls have been worthless even on the days immediately preceding the voting. we're weeks away from texas and ohio.
man I agree with that, plus I would never trust a news network like CNN, they made up exit poll numbers in 2004 saying Bush was getting killed to try to rally dems in the western states or to make it seem that it was going to be lobsided and effect overall turnout etc. etc. just plain lies, as far as these polls I just think there are many folks unsure or that just flat change their mind
ACtually that is just not true. They didn't "make up" numbers and none of the polls had Bush getting killed. It is true that the polls are not accurate. The CA poll certainly wasn't and one of the reasons was the large early vote in CA.
So, this isn't February, but Texas apparently has a combo primary AND caucus (because just one wouldn't be complex enough ): http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=514 With 193 pledged delegates at stake, Texas is the biggest prize to come in its upcoming March 4 “primary.” Except it’s not mainly a primary. 126 of those delegates will be chosen at the district level, but differently than in other states where they’ve been allocated based on Congressional district: they’ll be chosen based on totals in 31 state senate districts by caucuses in more than 18,000 precincts. The remaining 67 pledged delegates will be chosen by statewide primary vote. So the Texas primary gives only a delegate catch of 67 delegates, less than, say, Minnesota. On the same date, in the evening, precinct caucuses will be held across the state and to participate one has to have voted in the primary earlier in the day. That is where the big prize of 126 delegates will be chosen. That scenario favors a campaign that spends the resources and has the volunteers to wage a ground game on 18,000 fronts. Here’s another fact: The Texas Democratic Party is not as institutionally strong as those that remember LBJ might presume. There will be no falling back upon a pre-existing machine to deliver in most of the state. Years of Republican legislatures and governors have redistricted Congressional seats to their advantage: 19 of its 32 members of Congress are Republicans. Of the 13 Democratic seats, three elected African-American members of Congress and six elected Hispanic Americans. The state’s population is 35 percent Hispanic-American (they constituted 20 percent of the general election vote in 2004, and half of those voted for George W. Bush), and 13 percent African-American. Regarding those senate districts through which the delegates will be chosen, 20 are represented at the State House by the GOP: there are only 11 Democratic state senators. On the plus side for the party, Democrats are only five seats away from taking back the state House of Representatives. By and large, there’s a situation in more than half of the state in which there aren’t powerful Democratic power brokers - similar to what we saw in Northern Nevada. There’s an opening there for a truly grassroots campaign, prioritizing rural voters, to take enough delegates to win the state on March 4. So March 4 is going to offer an assumption-shattering Texas-sized spectacle of the likes we have not yet seen in this nomination fight. Certainly could change the dynamics a lot if Obama does have a stronger ground organization. Though I assume with a month to prepare, both sides will have solid ground games, and Clinton has more institutional strength, so who knows.
OK, so on the financial front, this race is becoming just laughable. We learn today that Hillary loaned herself $5 million last month and is considering more this month. Her campaign said they had their best day fundraising today - and set an admirable goal of $3 million in 3 days. So Obama decided to have some fun with this apparently, and sent out a fundraising email challenging his donors to match her $5 million loan. He's now raised $4.6 million since the polls closed yesterday. This is becoming ridiculous. http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/obama_campaign_has_raised_over.php
This has got to be demoralizing for Hillary. Maybe more tears would help. Sniff! http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23037431/ Some Clinton staffers going without pay Campaign faces cash crunch as Obama continues to raise money Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton holds a news conference in Arlington, Va., to talk about the results of Super Tuesday. Staffers were reportedly foregoing salaries because of a cash crunch in her camaign. NBC News and news services updated 7:11 p.m. CT, Wed., Feb. 6, 2008 WASHINGTON - Some of Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign staff have voluntarily chosen to work without pay this month, NBC News confirmed Wednesday. Super Tuesday's mixed outcome has set up at least four weeks of frenzied delegate hunting for Clinton and Barack Obama, pitting his well-financed all-terrain campaign against her big state strategy. Clinton faced a serious cash crunch going into Tuesday's multi-state vote due to overspending in Iowa, a source within the campaign told NBC News. Staffers blamed campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle, who was among those working for free, the source said. Clinton acknowledged Wednesday that she loaned her campaign $5 million late last month as Obama was outraising and outspending her heading into Feb. 5 Super Tuesday contests. Buoyed by strong fundraising and a primary calendar in February that plays to his strengths, Obama plans a campaign blitz through a series of states holding contests this weekend and will compete to win primaries in the Mid-Atlantic next week and Hawaii and Wisconsin the following week. His campaign raised $3 million Wednesday in online contributions, a source from the Obama campaign told NBC News. Focusing on Ohio, Texas Clinton, with less money to spend and less confident of her prospects in the February contests, will instead concentrate her efforts on Ohio and Texas, large states that hold primaries March 4 and where polling shows her with a significant lead. She even is looking ahead to Pennsylvania's primary April 22, believing a largely elderly population there will favor the former first lady. Clinton's personal loan illustrated her financial disadvantage and her desire to pick her targets with care. On Wednesday, she sent out an e-mail appeal to donors Wednesday seeking $3 million in three days — an effort, that if successful, would match the fundraising rate Obama averaged for the entire month of January. "I loaned it because I believe very strongly in this campaign," Clinton told reporters Wednesday. "We had a great month fundraising in January, broke all records, but my opponent was able to raise more money and we intended to be competitive and we were." "And I think the results last night proved the wisdom of my investment." Both campaigns claimed bragging rights for their Super Tuesday successes Wednesday while acknowledging it could be weeks or even months until either candidate has amassed enough delegates to win the party's nomination. Obama won 13 Super Tuesday states while Clinton picked up eight and American Samoa with New Mexico left to be decided. Both camps claimed a small delegate lead, but an analysis by The Associated Press indicates there were still many to be counted. Obama's fundraising wave "We are going to try and contest every contest, and win as many delegates we can," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said. "If you look at the next month, we have a lot of confidence that we will hold the pledged delegate lead." Obama, riding a wave of fundraising both from large donors and small Internet contributors, raised a stunning $32 million in January. Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe said last week the Clinton campaign raised only $13.5 million for the month. The $5 million loan was in addition to that amount, Wolfson said. Clinton advisers were stunned by Obama's January fundraising and have marveled at his ability to raise small-dollar amounts from a vast field of donors. "We will have funds to compete," chief Clinton strategist Mark Penn said, "but we're likely to be outspent again." The Clinton camp was eager to take the luster off of Obama's status as a "movement candidate" who has generated unprecedented activism and fundraising through the Internet. Clinton strategists went out of their way to label him an "establishment candidate" and worked to pitch her message to online activists. Obama was heading late Wednesday to Louisiana, where he is favored to win the state's primary Saturday largely on his strength among black voters. He also planned to campaign in Nebraska and Washington state, which also hold contests that day. Clinton was being more circumspect. She planned to campaign Thursday in Virginia, which holds its primary next Tuesday along with neighbors Maryland and the District of Columbia. She was also headed to Maine, which holds precinct caucuses Sunday. Penn conceded the campaign would rely on surrogates to campaign for her in most of states holding contests Saturday, including President Clinton and daughter Chelsea. It was a tacit admission that the former first lady was unlikely to win any of those states outright. Privately, her strategists have also largely written off her chances of winning the so-called Potomac primary Feb. 9, given the large black populations in Virginia, Maryland and D.C. They are also playing down her chances in the following week's major primaries _ Hawaii, where Obama grew up, and Wisconsin, which has virtually sealed the nomination for other Democrats in years past. Obama's advantage Wisconsin's Democratic electorate is largely liberal and college educated, and its open primary allows independents to vote — all factors that favor Obama. Clinton political director Guy Cecil insisted the campaign was competing hard in all those places. The campaign has paid staff in Wisconsin. The campaign, however, was clearly focused on the March 4 contests in Ohio and Texas, both of them offering a trove of delegates. But both states have several media markets, making advertising an expensive proposition. A state wide race in Texas can cost $1 million a week in advertising. Cecil identified Texas as a top priority. "We think it is a linchpin in our nomination to the presidency," he said. Obstacles ahead While Clinton was focusing on Ohio and Texas, her organized supporters were weighing in for her in upcoming state contests. The American Federation of Teachers was going up with radio ads promoting her in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia. They also planned a two-week placement of radio ads in Wisconsin, which holds its primary Feb. 19. Clinton faces significant fundraising obstacles ahead, raising the possibility that she might have to dip into the family's wealth again. The Clinton's financial disclosures, which reveal only broad ranges of assets, place their wealth between $10 million to $50 million. Campaign spokesman Howard Wolfson said the loan came from Sen. Clinton's "share of their joint resources." An analysis by the Campaign Finance Institute, which tracks trends in political money, found that Obama raised about a third of his money in 2007 from donors who gave $200 or less. Only one-third of his money came from donors who have given the legal maximum of $2,300, compared to Clinton who raised about half of her money from "maxed out" donors and only 14 percent from donors of $200 or less. The Associated Press and NBC News' Andrea Mitchell contributed to this report. URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23037431/ MSN Privacy . Legal © 2008 MSNBC.com
Poor Hillary. She is being forced to use some of the millions donated by the Saudis and other Arab states to the Clinton Library -- which continues to refuse to tell how the funds are being used -- and to the Clintons outright.
No the library funds would not be eligible for her to loan her campaign. She's probably using money from Bill's speaking engagement fees.
