The NBA Offseason List - article forecasting Rox or the Spurs in the finals (charts/stats incl)

I understand that. But if you go through the documentation listed on WoW you will find out that my explanation is correct. I personally would never post raw WoW data on Clutch Fans. If the OP had any understanding of what he posted he would have cut the last 3 columns out of the data. But he did not. So massive confusion reigns. It is probably FUBAR, and the OP still does not understand it well enough to even try to fix it.

 

One comment on the Josh Smith idea. If Morey was interested, it was for his defense. Everybody knows he is incredibly inefficient on offense. If they interviewed him and he was willing to take a diminished role on offense, he would have been a perfect match for the Rockets. Look at what the Bulls did with Ron Harper. Of course, this is all dependent on Josh Smith not being a knucklehead. Under this scenario, it is reasonable to imagine that Morey was interested. At this stage, its a moot point and JS is not coming but please think outside the box instead of making the same comment that everybody makes 100 times.

 

No matter how you try to spin it that chart is crap. Look at the Avg Last three # for Indiana(39.8) and Utah(39.1).

 

Indiana's actual last 3 seasons averaged out to 42.6. So 39.8 isn't far off.

Utah's actual win average over the last 3 years is 39.3. So that is dead on.

 

You are absolutely correct. It had slipped my mind in the confusion reigning about uncensored and unexplained WoW data being posted on the GARM. On the defensive side it is the best the fans have, but that is not true on the offensive side. But on both the offensive and the defense their are certain line ups that will completely confound RAPM.

 

Please reread post # 18 on this thread.

Expected performance is for the upcoming season, given the additions and subtractions of personnel a team has experienced.

 

But they're supposed to be win projections according to Jtr(the PHI and LAL projections for this season). Nobody in their right mind would think the Jazz should win as many games as they averaged the last 3 years.

Just because a few data points are dead on doesn't mean you can ignore other data points that are way off.

 

And what?

How can you tell Carl he read the chart wrong about PHI and LAL projections and yet when I question other data in that column(Jazz and Pacers) you point somewhere else and try to spin it again. Just admit this chart is crap.

 

I know they are win projections. I'm saying that their projected wins using the average of the last 3 seasons is very close to their actual average wins over the last 3 seasons.

So it isn't some outlandish number.

Do I think the Jazz are going to win 40 games this next year? No.

But the numbers are what the numbers are. We'll have to wait and see.

 

I can explain the Jazz projection off the top of my head. If you analyze it the prediction is just common sense.

The Jazz and Denver have the biggest home court advantage in the NBA. If I remember correctly Utah's home court advantage is 12 games. In addition the Jazz discarded Jefferson who is a net negative on almost any team in the league. Millsap will be a much greater loss, but Utah has Favors and Kanter waiting in the wings, both solid contributors who will actually improve the Jazz overall over Millsap and Jefferson.

Morey depends on statistical analysis. Until you accept that it is a better measure of success than gut feeling you will never be able to grasp the basics of how Morey evaluates the game.

 

useless..............

 

Just what I love. A gut reaction to a question about the merits of statistical analysis. Well, you are entitled to your opinion, no matter how worthless.

 

I'm gonna make two claims here and use zero stats to back it up. And you know what? They'll both be true also. (No I'm not a fake DD account either. My eyes aren't backed by years of coaching experience, but I do like to use them every now and then.)

1. The Rockets heavily underperformed their Pythagorean prediction because of their inexperience and their style of play. When we beat a team, we more often than not blew them out. Conversely, when we lost, it was often due to one or two plays in the last 3min of the game not going our way. Sometimes we were young, poorly coached, or flat out choked. Other times wily vet teams like SA pulled the wool over our eyes. Some teams like Washington and Milwaukee just jobbed us. One time Chris Paul just flopped to the ground like a fish. Oh wait he does that every time. Anyways, long story short, when your game is predicated on lane penetration and kickout threes, that becomes an easy thing to stop late in the crunch when referees no longer blow whistles.

So there you are. If we had trotted out the exact same roster next year and put on the same points differential, I still believe we would have underperformed our Pythagorean ranking by virtue of our team composition and style of play.

2. LaMarcus Aldridge may not be as good as his PER makes him out to be, but he's still damn good and someone who would fill a vital role on this team. One poster made the poignant comment that championships are won with mid-range shots, not shots at the basket. I dunno if I would go that far, but I would say this. Mid range shots are important, and you cannot just ignore them like the Rockets tried to do this past year. The key is floor spacing. By having the threat of the midrange jumper out there, you make both your at-the-basket shots AND your perimeter threes more effective. And while 3pters vs layup will theoretically spread a defense as far out as it can go, it still happens that there is this humongous hole on the defense for that PF to go out and shoot that 15-20 foot baseline or top-of-the-key jump shot.

I.e. what Luis Scola used to do for us.
I.e. what OKC has had Ibaka do for a couple years now.
I.e. what we all cringed at while watching Greg Smith and DMo try to fulfill this role for the Rockets.
I.e. what guys like LaMarcus Aldridge, David West, Kevin Love, Tim Duncan, and Paul Millsapp are the BEST in the league at doing.

No matter who takes this shot, it's not gonna have a great efficiency. The PPS, eFG%, and TS% of that range is just not gonna be good no matter what. But just by having that option out there, it softens the rest of the opposing defense for all our other offensive options that are gonna rank higher than it. Everything about your offense gets better when you have guys who can operate at all spots on the court. It then becomes a true pick-your-poison scenario where top defensive teams like Indiana or Chicago or Miami or OKC are truly at a loss when trying to eliminate your top two plays. #'s 3 and 4 are nearly as good. It all evens out. A guy like Lamarcus Aldridge (or Kevin Love who I like even more) would do that for this Rockets team.

I can't speak for the defense of any of these guys. I guess my eye's just not that good.

 

Selective memory???

http://blog.chron.com/ultimaterocke...h-smith-who-played-with-dwight-howard-in-aau/

If offensive role players aren't as efficient as #1 option on a team, they probably don't belong there.

You are also making a statement that's completely unfounded in facts. We can play this game all day long! What did Asik have to do with our inability to score in close games??

Do you know that most of Dream's shots were by far and away the worst shots in bball?? Where did he take us?

By your way of analysis on bball, if Rockets assemble a team full of Novak's, Hickson's, DeAndre Jordan's, and Calderon's, we should blow any team off the court with their efficiency, shouldn't we??

 

No, they're not important. What is important is getting the highest efficiency shot every single possession. The problem you described for the Rockets last year has nothing to do with whether or not we take mid-range shots. It has to do with our youthful inexperience being unable to create anything better. The solution is not to get a guy who takes a ton of 18-footers.

If it's not a high efficiency shot, you shouldn't take it. At least, it shouldn't be a staple of your offense. I understand there are times when a mid-range shot isn't bad. For instance, someone earlier mentioned if you're down by 1 in the final possession. A mid-range shot would be a better play than a 3. However a guy like LMA 17 ft from the basket. He takes that shot way too much and hurts his team because of it.

If you show a willingness to take mid-range shots, the elite defensive teams will happily oblige you. Thibideaux defensive strategy revolves around crowding the paint to deter penetration, and chasing shooters off the 3PT line. i.e. he wants you to take mid-range shots.

I can't speak for the defense of any of these guys. I guess my eye's just not that good.[/QUOTE]

 

A great take Spacemoth. Well reasoned even without the statistics to back it up. So I will give you a reasoned response without citing statistics.

There actually are power forwards out there that would fit Moreys "plan". Chief among them is Kevin Love. However they just are not available at any price we would want to pay. Is Love really worth Asik, Parsons, TJ and picks? I shudder when I think of that trade. The same for LMA. This of course may change at the trade deadline, which is the next time that I expect Morey to make a move.

The Rockets with Howard will be much more potent on offense. The defensive center will be much less likely to meet Harden on a dribble penetration next season because of the easy pass to Howard above the rim for the dunk. This aspect of the game is something that Asik is not capable to provide. So next season Lin and Hardens dribble drive into the paint will be much more effective. Especially in end of game scenarios.

In many cases the defensive SF will have to leave Parsons in the corner to intercept a dribble drive into the lane. One of the center or the SF has to do it or Harden will be at the rim with no defender there. And I am completely comfortable with Parsons taking a wide open 3 from the right corner. I believe he will sink them at the approximate rate that LMA can hit 2 point shots.

Both of the scenarios above use the standard DDMO offense with Harden and Parsons on the strong side and Howard on the weak side. I can post diagrams if anyone is interested.

 

I really do not believe any point you made. Just because the Rockets had a sit down with Smith does not mean they were interested in him if Howard came on board. At that point in time (July 1 2013) Howard was not signed.

Harden is the #1 option on the team. What role player can live up to him?

Asik converted the leagues 27th ranked defense into the 7th ranked defense. And you ask what did that have to do with the performance in close games? If he had played 33 minutes and was gassed where did the Rockets defense rank?

Basically I have no idea what point you are trying to make.

 

Why wasted everyone's time if Morey showed no interest?

<PRE>
Rk Player eFG%
1 Greg Smith .620
2 Francisco Garcia .574
3 Chandler Parsons .567
4 Patrick Patterson .557
5 Omer Asik .541
6 Cole Aldrich .535
7 Carlos Delfino .532
8 Marcus Morris .520
9 Patrick Beverley .513
10 Donatas Motiejunas .512
11 James Harden .504
</PRE>

 

Wow you are stubborn. Smith may have been attractive before Howard was signed but after? No evidence.

You can order stats any way you like. Try TS%. Tells a different story doesn't it? Basically I just use PPG to start when deciding what a teams #1 offensive option is. Especially when the leader is on top by almost 10 points.

 

TS% is where it's at friend...although I really don't know what point you're trying to make...