I wrote at this time about a year ago that I was concerned about the 2001-02 season from a historical standpoint. The reason I held such a feeling of apprehension was that history shows that teams which make huge improvements in one season tend to regress the next. There are many reasons for this, but it pretty much applies to all pro sports. Some of the reasons are... 1) Players unused to success don't adjust to it as well, and their individual play declines in the next year. 2) Opponents take you more seriously. 3) Teams who improve dramatically in one season usually received better than average beaks in terms of on-court luck, injuries, etc., and that either reverts to the norm or operates in the negative the next year. 4) Some sports have weighted schedules which favour teams with worse records, not really the case in basketball. 5) Other factors such as the inverted draft structure are in play to maintain parity, and these factors usually weigh heavier against teams new to success rather than teams used to compensating for them. Anyways, for whatever reason, this is the general tendency. And, for whatever reason, it applied to the Rockets....the good news? The same probability trend which unfortunately applied to the Rockets last year reverses in the following year..In other words, the trend is for a team which improves rapidly in one year to take a step back the following year, before taking another one forward in the third. While this isn't an absolute law, there are reasons... 1) The players learn to adjust, and remember what got them successfull in the first place. 2) Opponents forget about you. 3)The laws of averages tend to even out the longer you go. 4/5) the factors which weighed heavily against you the last year are just as heavily in your favour now, and you often get cases where young and talented teams add another key component while maintaining the same talent which stimulated their initial progress. Before you say it, yes, I know there are exceptions..I'm just talking about generalities....But as far as these probabalities go, things are looking good. On the other hand, if you are a Nets fan....
I for one, must say huh? Also, I don't think you need to look at the past to tell that this team will improve a great deal from last years'.
Out of curiosity, are these conclusions based on teams' records over the years, or is this just a theory that you have reasoned out? I would be interested to see the numbers of the teams that tend to get worse after a good season, and of those that tend to get better after a bad season... seems kind of counterintuitive to me as teams that are getting better are likely on the rise, and teams that get worse are either aging, or lost someone key and probably won't be able to make up for that anytime soon.
This years team reminds me some of the Spurs team a few years back except we have more diverse talent than them. The Spurs had a good, playoff caliber team (well, David would carry them to the playoffs anyway) and when David got hurt they used all kinds of odd lineups on the court and, if I remember correctly, Dominique Wilkins was their leading scorer even though he was well past his prime. The team finishes the season with a very poor record and lucked into the top pick in the draft, getting Duncan. This is much the same thing we did last year. Franchise was out many games, Mo Taylor was out all year, and Glen Rice was out for most of his inaugaral season with the Rox. All those players are currently healthy and in playing shape (as far as we know) and we ended up with Yao and Boki as payment (reward?) for our misfortune. It would be difficult to imagine this team NOT getting 15 games better this year at the minimum and making a run at the playoffs, just like the Spurs did after getting Duncan and a hobbled Robinson back.
Maybe I am reading this wrong but to me i think we have had not to good of years the past 2 so to me it looks by what you are saying we are going to have a good year this next 1...maybe I was up late and dont see the point here
Did u ever see the play MacBeth performed by the English company in Rice University? it was pretty cool
I have observed the same trend myself, but I attribute it mostly to something you didn't mention: burden of expectations. This can really have an effect on a ball team even if just for the jinx. I remember in the preseason rankings last year the Rockets were #7 in the whole NBA. I sensed problems right there. The same thing may happen to the Clippers this year. Everybody is raving about them, but I expect them to take a step back.
Yep. One of the most obvious is...the Houston Rockets. 1983-84: 29 wins 1984-85: 48 wins 1985-86: 51 wins 1986-87: 44 wins 1987-88: 46 wins
