The inevitable September Collapse of the Texas Rangers

And yet...

For someone who claims not to be a braindead idiot - you keep making the same braindead idiot point... None of us go to bed warm and fuzzy; none of us prefer that our team hasn't won a championship. None of us don't give a **** about wins and losses...

We all share the same frustrations as you; no one has the upper hand there.

The difference, maybe, is that we don't want to wallow in the frustration so consistently? I'm pretty sure the three of us are all the same age so I've witnessed every heartbreak and disappointment that you have. But I don't hold on to it quite so tightly, and I don't think that's such a bad thing. Finding silver linings amid that frustration is part of the process. Living in the moment, rather than dwelling in the past, is part of the process.

I've never begrudged MM's POV here at all - I don't subscribe to it, but I understand and respect it. I'm not sure you could say the same, RM95 - at least in terms of your responses on this particular topic, both here and previously. Comments mocking or flat misrepresenting us - like getting off to %s and not giving a **** about wins and losses - completely invalidate our perspectives.

I'm not going to change MM's mind - but if we can exchange ideas and perspectives, maybe we can move the needle here and there - isn't that why we're here?...

 

Nice jinx. Series sweep to follow and the Astros are out of it.

 

what a terrible thread.

 

we still waiting for that inevitable collapse of the texas rangers?

 

They're only unlucky in the playoffs?

 

I ****ING HATE THE RANGERS SO MUCH.

 

Sorry I missed this gem of a post last week, Ric.

 

Astros fans have far more to complain about than Red Sox, even pre-2004. We can't claim the Celtics, Patriots, and lesser extent, Bruins. The gap is a canyon.

It all matters... unless you're a multi-city cheering-type "fan".

 

Trying to make us more depressed?

 

The inevitable September collapse of the Houston Astros.

Whaaaaa?!

Spoiler

12-14
Losing 5 of 7 to the Angels & Mariners?

 

*luck

 

It obviously makes Astros fan look petty, but you can't deny the luck the Ranger's have had this season. They're setting in MLB record in victories in one-run games... maybe a small part of that is due to bull-pen strength and good managing but a large part of that is just random chance. This is a very popular opinion among analytical and handicapping minded crowd, not like its just Astros throwing shade.

 

Heard the same thing last season. It's all luck.

Whatever...they own us.

 

Luck is winning 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 in a closely contested series.

Getting your ass handed two you for two straight seasons, consistently means that the Rangers own us.

It could change next season, but it would require the Astros improving greatly and there are no guarantees.

Rumor has it that Jeff Banister "traded" AJ Hinch to Buck Showalter for a pack of Newports.

 

I choose to look at it as reasons to be optimistic about next year. The Rangers are highly unlikely to win 36 of 47 one-run games next year; it's an historic outlier of a pace, and no team that has ever won so many one-run games has been able to duplicate it the following season.

And while I don't think luck has necessarily factored into the Astros-Rangers series, it, too, feels unsustainable. It defies explanation. The Astros and Rangers are both 79-61 against every other MLB team this year; an 11-game discrepancy in their head-to-head makes zero sense and is ripe for regression. At some point....

 

I'll agree that nothing is sustainable forever. At some point things should change. But I don't have reason to believe that will necessarily be next season....it might.

 

Forget the H2H issues for a minute. The Rangers went 27-22 in 1-run games in 2015. They are 36-11 in 2016. Which do you think is more likely in 2017?

In terms of the H2H, if you're the owner or GM of the Astros, how do you propose to "fix" it? The Astros are as good as the Rangers against all other teams. Their combined hitting & pitching (run differential) is statistically better than the Rangers, even including the lopsided H2H mess. So it's not necessarily an issue of the Rangers having better players - at least in the other 140 games, they are not any better than the Astros in results or underlying stats. So if you're team-building, how do you fix the H2H issue? How do you get players that specfically can beat the Rangers?

 

I don't think the Houston Astros are as good as the Texas Rangers. I recognize there are stats that you can use to argue that point. But I don't think it's nearly as close as what those stats suggest.

I'd start by addressing starting pitching. I don't think you can go into next season assuming Keuchel will have a bounce-back. I don't think you can go into next season assuming McCullers will be there for you. I think they're going to have to spend some money and be willing to trade for or acquire a legit starting pitcher...a guy who is a 1/2 ...not another 4/5 (which it seems we have a lot of).

5-9 in this lineup can't get on base. That has to be addressed. I'm not sure just calling up one of the kids is gonna get it at this point. I'd like to see them start to spend money to bring in some veterans to accompany the solid core of younger players they have in place.

I don't know what tendencies we have against the Rangers that provide some sort of matchup problem...or if that's even a thing. If you pay me as much as they pay Luhnow, I'll try to figure it out, though!

 

They're not. But they don't have to be as good; they just have to be better than they've been. If they'd just gone... 6-9 against the Rangers, they'd be 85-74 and two games out of the WC; 7-8 and they're a game back.

And it's not like the Astros wilt against good teams. They finished 15-16 against every other playoff team. But 4-11 against the Rangers...

I would wager Luhnow's perspective probably isn't too far removed from a lot of us who think there has to be some "normalizing" in the H2H. Not at the expense of not making the team better - they should still do that. But the Rangers were 12-2 (!) against the Astros in one-run games these past two years. That's just... it's inexplicable beyond being a statistical outlier. Most teams, generally, are .500 in one-run games.