No, what will happen now is a long extension. Even the Brexemists who voted against May's deal now want a long extension. "On Sky News Sir Bernard Jenkin, the Tory Brexiter who voted against the agreement this afternoon, said that he thought there would now have to be a long article 50 extension. At least after it was over, the UK would be able to leave the EU without conditions, he argued. (Although most Brexiters oppose a long article 50 extension, some of them read with interest a recent article by Martin Howe, a Brexiter QC, saying a long article 50 extension would be better than Theresa May’s deal. What Jenkin was saying seemed to overlap with the arguments in the Howe piece.) Jenkin also said that he thought Theresa May would have to go."
Hopefully everyone can finally realise that the reason she can't pass her deal it's because it's too hard Brexit. Even if the DUP and all the Torries Brexemists voted for her she would still be 15 votes short. Now the question is what will happen if on Monday some people again sabotage the process by voting against everything and no consensus can be reached. Immediate General Elections?
How many times we are going to have to cover this? In order for the UK to get a long extension, they have to agree on a reason for a long extension, which means a second referendum. They have already voted that down twice. They also voted down revoking Article 50. With that in mind, what makes those more plausible options than the current default path, which is Brexit with no deal on April 12, 2019? To get an extension, the UK Parliament is going to have to vote to participate in the May 23-26, 2019 EU Parliamentary elections in order to hold a second referendum, which they will not do. If they do not, then they are on course to leave with no deal on April 12, 2019. If there is another functional alternative that is not just a lot of bull___, please explain exactly what that would consist of and the actions that would consist of. If they overthrow the May government, then they will presumably be giving it over to Jeremy Corbyn and Labour, which as hard as it may be to fathom, is even more unpopular and less trusted than the Tories are right now. And whatever the new government is would be faced with the same exact four options that they face right now. Meanwhile, the people want the Parliament to just get on with it and get Brexit done, even with no deal. Enough is enough. It does not appear that they are going to overthrow the government over this, nor should they. 14 days to go. Tick tock.
Here are PM Theresa May's comments to Parliament immediately after the deal was defeated again today. It very nicely sums up where things are, which apparently needs to be repeated again and again, because so many people, including many UK MP's, have seemingly lost their capacity for reason and responsibility in connection with this episode. Theresa May reacts to her Withdrawal Agreement being voted down Here is what Mrs May said after the results of the vote came in this afternoon. She said: "I think it should be a matter of profound regret to every member of this House that once again we have been unable to support leaving the European Union in an orderly fashion.The implications of the House's decision are grave. "The legal default now is that the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on 12 April, in just 14 days' time. This is not enough time to agree, legislate for and ratify a deal, and yet the House has been clear it will not permit leaving without a deal. And so we will have to agree an alternative way forward. "The European Union has been clear that any further extension will need to have a clear purpose and will need to be agreed unanimously by the heads of the other 27 Member States ahead of 12 April. It is also almost certain to involve the UK being required to hold European Parliamentary elections. "On Monday, this House will continue the process to see if there is a stable majority for a particular alternative version of our future relationship with the EU. Of course, all of the options will require the Withdrawal Agreement. "Mr Speaker, I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this House. This House has rejected no deal. It has rejected no Brexit. On Wednesday it rejected all the variations of the deal on the table. And today it has rejected approving the Withdrawal Agreement alone and continuing a process on the future. "This Government will continue to press the case for the orderly Brexit that the result of the referendum demands." There seems to be an expectation by some people that the UK will just somehow refuse every other alternative and also not leave the EU on April 12 with no deal. How are they supposedly going to do that? What would be the motion that would be approved by the UK Parliament, that the EU would accept? Everything has been voted down, in most cases more than once. What I would be interested to see is a choice vote between the two main options that have only been voted down once, which are revoking Article 50 and Brexit with no deal. Not that anyone over there knows about or cares what I think about all of this, but I recommend they put that choice to a vote.
it is overwhelmingly in brussels' interest to extend past april 12th and kick the can down the road further. this charade of reluctance on their part has been pure posturing. as already stated earlier in the thread, for many reasons they absolutely do not want brexit taking effect
LOL Well I don't know how many times people have to repeat to you that GENERAL ELECTIONS are an accepted reason to give a long extension. You seem to be temporarily unable to read english when this simple sentence comes up? Another good enough reason is voting for a different political declaration. If they were so unpopular and untrusted then simply they won't win the GE to form a government. So your sentence is an oxymoron in itself.
Well luckily there's a very easy way to see if the DUP is bullcraping or not. Vote for something on Monday instead of abstaining from every single choice.
If they were thinking and acting rationally and responsibly, I believe that is certainly right. And I still have some tiny sliver of hope that they may yet see reason and allow for a firm end date to the backstop, which it appears to me would result in the current deal otherwise being adopted. It would still not be that great of a deal for the UK, but I think they would pass it with that one change. Leaving with a good deal, or even a less bad deal would be preferable to leaving with no deal. But no deal is still preferable for the UK to the current deal, or to a second referendum or to revoking Article 50. I hope the EU sees reason at the last minute. Donald Tusk has in fact called an emergency EU Council summit for April 10, two days before the currently scheduled departure date for the UK. Brussels calls emergency summit for 10 April after MPs reject Theresa May’s deal for third time The EU has given the British government 11 days to come up with a fresh Brexit plan to avoid crashing out of the bloc at 11pm on 12 April. In the immediate aftermath of the crushing rejection of the prime minister’s deal, the European council president, Donald Tusk, called an emergency leaders’ summit. Should the UK seek a lengthy extension, leaders will debate any request at an extraordinary meeting on 10 April. EU capitals would require a clear justification at least two days earlier from Downing Street on the reason for a lengthy delay to allow officials to prepare. “We expect the UK to indicate a way forward before then, well in time for the European council to consider,” an official said. EU heads of state and government expressed their alarm at the continued impasse in Westminster following the third defeat of May’s deal. So that will be the meeting when a last minute change by the EU would have to happen. And as the article above explains, it will need to be preceded by a last minute change by the UK as well, which the UK Parliament will need to accomplish by a week from tomorrow at the latest. In other words, they have one week left to fiddle with this.
Just so we are clear, are you going all-in on general elections being declared within the next two weeks? It is down to this?
Probably as many times as it takes to get through your head. Again, I offer you the same bet - if they crash out on Apr 12th with no deal, I'll stop posting here. If they don't, you go away.
If there is no conclusion on Monday through the Letwin amendment then absolutely. This parliament will have proved to be unable to rule and legislate. In any other country here in Europe such a parliament would have been abolished and GE declared long ago. We are not like the USA where you have only elections at standard years. Countries have elections much more often when there are problems like this.
And I will offer you the same reply as before. If they decide to hold a second referendum, I will go away, if they don't, you go away. You never did respond to that offer the last time I made it.
The last time the Brits voted wasn't the Brexit referendum. It was 2017. The Tories lost 13 seats and Labour gained 30. The Lib Dems a minor party with a manifesto of asking for a second referendum, from 8 now got 12. So the Tories do NOT represent the will of the people right now. If the Tories vote for a Brexemist like Boris Johnson or Ian Duncan Smith or Raab to be their new leader when May resigns, they will lose their centrist base and there is no chance they will win the elections. The problem in the UK has always been their biparty politics. You can't have extreme right wingers and moderate conservative centrist under the same party umbrella. Same with Labour, you can't have anarchists and communists under the same umbrella as moderate socialists. That's why we have these problems with Tories and Labour MPs rebelling and even leaving their party because the extreme wings take control. The new Independent group should make a new party and represent the centrists.
Actually, I did. As I have said before, a public vote is still the likeliest outcome, though there are numerous different options. The only one that is at 0% is No-Deal, which is the only one you seem to think is possible. Why would I make an absolute bet on something that I've said is 50/50 at best? And why wouldn't you make a bet on something you claim is 100% certain and which you've repeatedly stated you can see no other possible outcome? Either you know you're stupid or you don't actually believe the things you say. Or likely both.
merkel's, i mean may's deal getting set for a fourth vote now lol as w/ the lisbon treaty, the EC just keep running the same playbook
We are at a stage in this process when backstage revelations are rife with rumor, innuendo, exaggeration and outright falsehood, as everyone should be aware by now. So today's rumor from the Daily Telegraph is that Theresa May's Tory cabinet is telling her that it is now time to embrace "no deal". Cabinet ministers tell May to 'embrace no deal' after third Brexit defeat in Parliament Cabinet ministers will attempt to take control of Brexit by telling Theresa May it is “time to embrace no deal” after her EU Withdrawal Agreement was rejected by MPs for a third time. Mrs May will hold a conference call with ministers on Sunday night amid calls for a Cabinet vote on how to proceed. Senior backbenchers said the Prime Minister had reached the end of the road and should now quit, but Mrs May stood firm and wants to put her deal to a Parliamentary vote for a fourth time next week. To the extent this is true, I think this is a strategic mistake. Not the part of leaving with no deal, but the part about publicly embracing this course of action. It is too soon. They need to wait till the last second possible, when there is literally no other choice. I could be mistaken of course, but it has seemed to me for quite a while now that Theresa May had embraced "no deal" back sometime during her negotiations with the EU. Not that she would necessarily be opposed to getting her deal through, but I think that she knows that it does not have the support and that she did not ever actually expect it to pass. The development last week that surprised me the most was the flip by Jacob Rees Moog and Boris Johnson to support this deal, even when they KNEW it was not going to pass. Why do that? It is my sense now that what they were doing and are doing is propping up Theresa May and her government. If they can just keep the government alive past April 12, 2019 (13 days), and there is no affirmative vote for her deal, for revoking Brexit, or for a second referendum, then Jacob Rees Moog and Boris Johnson, and the entirety of the UK, and also Brexit supporters everywhere will have their victory. The strong Tory support for her deal appears to me to actually be support for her government. They are smart to continue to focus the vitriol and attention on this deal and keep the discussion away from any focus on no deal. This decreases the pressure on the no deal option and increases the odds of it occurring. In this light, this flip makes sense. Alternatively, what would not make sense is following through on the supposed Tory backbench recommendation that Theresa May resign or be sacked. The timing for that could not be worse. If these people want REAL chaos - and maybe some of them do - then Theresa May stepping down as PM before April 13, 2019 is as an effective of a recipe for that as I believe the people of the UK and the EU could possibly assemble right now. Don't do it. Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Moog appear to be on the right track here after all. Prop up Theresa May and her government, even if it becomes to resemble the movie "Weekend at Bernie's" and hold on for two weeks. You are so close guys. Hang in there!
The UK is at the "Top of the queue" with the US for a trade deal, according to Trump National Security Adviser John Bolton. It would surprise me if they were not already working on that, even as we speak. UK 'top of the queue' for post-Brexit trade deal, says Trump adviser John Bolton President Trump is said to be eager for the will of the British public to be carried out and to quickly cut a trade deal. Donald Trump’s national security adviser has told Sky News the UK will be “at the top of the queue” for a trade deal after Brexit, in a sign that the Trump administration is growing impatient with delays to Britain leaving the EU. John Bolton said that the British people should not fear a no-deal scenario. “People who worry about the United Kingdom crashing out of the European Union – they are going to crash right into the United States,” said Mr Bolton. “We are standing here waiting to make a trade deal with a UK independent of the EU.” He stressed President Trump’s commitment to Brexit, that he is “eager for the will of the British people to be carried out, and he is even more eager to do a trade deal”. And of course most of the rest of the world wants to be at the "Top of the queue" for a trade deal with the UK as well.
