I think both parties were ready to give away fishing rights as a concession in some larger agreement but there are much bigger hurdles. The EU is actually stuck in many ways on this. The FTAs with Canada, Japan and South Korea (and a few others) granted most favored nation status to these countries. As a result, you can't give special privileges to the UK around services without extending those privileges to the others. Consequently, access to the single market for services has to come at a cost (regulatory alignment or joining the EEA) or the UK agreement becomes binding on other countries with FTAs with Europe. This is also why the UK can't just magically enter into an FTA that also covers services. The EU has never added services to an FTA before and once they do that, it becomes applicable to other countries with MFN status within the respective FTAs. Instead, privileges around services have to come through an internal market arrangement between the EU and UK rather than through an FTA (the bilateral treaties with Swizerland are an example of this). But its clear that the UK has no interest in binding itself to any EU regulations so they're never going to get a deal on services. In short, no deal is 100% happening.
Meghan Markle and Harry's Netflix deal to be key in Megxit review - 'Will be enquiries' https://www.express.co.uk/news/roya...-royal-family-queen-prince-charles-royal-news
Thank you for explaining. I thought that the demand of future regulatory alignment was because of the sheer amount of trade of goods between the UK and the block which pales compared with every other. But I didn't realise that the heart of the issue was because of the services. Yeah I don't see how a deal is reached now ...or in the future until they realise that "sovereignity" as they mean it, in a globalised interconnected world is only an illusion. This issue will never go away and the EU will never concede on divergence of standards and subsidies. Fisheries is little more like a red herring. Maybe the only concession that can be made is instead of it being some kind of automatic procedure that every year or every other year there will be some kind of examination with punitive tarrifs and denial of services in case of divergence or failure of compliance. But with the galvanisation of the Torries and Brexiteers that will be impossible to accept at this point in time even if Johnson concedes himself - the parliament will fail to pass it. At least hopefully there will be enough time to ratify some small agreements on security, airplanes and energy to patch things up for the time being.
I think at some point the UK and the EU will come to some sort of comprehensive agreement. There really is no other solution. Maybe they experiment with no deal trading for a while but they'll all work to something. There really is no alternative. And with Trump out of the way, the UK can't count on some sort of substitute agreement with the US so the EU will remain the only path forward for them
Chaos in the EU maybe. For the UK there will be celebration. Also, there will be a trade deal. Maybe not tomorrow, but eventually there will be one. Watch and see. Until then, the EU and the UK will trade with each other on WTO terms. And so it goes.
Of course there will be a deal ..some time. When the UK has accepted that they must have equal standards and level playing field to access the single market. As for celebration you are in for a shock. LOL I am reading on the immediate consequences of no deal now and they are staggering. Prices will go up at least 5% on food. There will be kilometres long lines in Kent, Dover and every british port. Brits will be barred from going to the EU from 1st January as a 3rd country. Tarrifs will be up to 40% on lamb and meat. Heck most companies were about to even cut sending food off to NI until there was intervention. Because of all the checks. UK trucks and UK airplanes won't be able to fly and drive over Europe. British banks and financial services will be immediately cut off from providing services to the EU.
The EU has published their no deal congistency plans to make life easier (not let the UK be cut off and starve tbh) but even that comes with the demand that the UK accepts a level playing field. Oh the irony. They have now to accept a level playing field for almost nothing in exchange.
Of course there will, but will the UK ever have a more favorably deal with its largest trading partner than it did when it was part of the Union? Maybe? As for now British agriculture and exports wont be on the same level playing field and will need to compete with a much larger entity now.
Brexit vote hits leave areas the hardest From a few months ago but the issues will still remain. How is the UK going to cause a domestic boom or at least turn the tides against its own rust belt? Massive government spending and new programs? A more command style economy? IDK. But lets be clear, UK's issues are affecting all developed countries as they struggle to compete against lower cost labor while trying to fund generous pensions/programs for the aging population.
It is Sunday and talks extended yet again. Let us see what happens. Maybe at the last minute there will be a deal. The UK saying that there is 80% chance still of no deal and the EU is now more optimistic which means that the UK is ready to accept the clauses for future alignment.
The EU and UK have extended make-or-break Brexit talks — again “Despite the exhaustion after almost a year of negotiations, despite the fact that deadlines have been missed over and over, we think it is responsible at this point to go the extra mile,” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said in a joint statement, released Sunday. https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/20...eal-level-playing-field-johnson-von-der-leyen
The deal is now imminent. In the next week for sure there should be one. The single remaining issue is the fish quotas. If the UK allows the fish which only is 0.1% of the GDP, employs only 12000 citizens, and 70% of the catches are exported to the EU to become a deal breaker it would be the biggest gaffe of the century. No matter the political theatre and posturing, that is impossible to allow to happen. The UK has already given in the level playing field , standards and subsidies rules, and a mechanism for the future with punitive measures like tarrifs. What kind of mechanism that is, is a big question mark and we will find as soon as the deal is finalised. Can a EU company go to the ECJ or there is some unknown third party that will mediate? Now from all the information available I can conclude that the EU-UK deal will negatively affect the chances of a US-UK trade deal let alone a fast one, which from the start was a fairytale. The US has a very strong food and farming lobby and they will demand access to the UK market but for that to happen the UK must lower their standards. And if they do that there will be retaliation from the EU.
A trade deal between the UK and the EU is not imminent. In fact, with only 12 days to go and Christmas right in the middle, it increasingly appears that the two sides will go into 2021 on WTO terms.
With all of the stuff going on in the US haven’t been following this as closely as I had been. Sounds like a real mess and feel bad for my friends in Northern Ireland.
Oh, the irony... You started this thread 4 years ago. Your credibility on this topic was blown by page 3.
Your friends in Northern Ireland will be fine. More than fine. They will be better than every other UK citizen. They are guaranteed to keep access to the single market, and since all of them as a birth right have right to an Irish passport they will continue to be able to travel, live and work without a visa. Also free healthcare. The Irish Sea checks will not be implemented immediately so there will not be any food problems. I think it is either after 6 months or after 1 year. The Good Friday agreement has been saved so no problem about peace. However the Stormont has the right to opose this arrangement so it is up to your friends in NI to realise the importance of their vote in the next elections. Give the vote to the DUP idiots who threaten to veto and all this can go away in a few years and there can be terrorism and war again.
