[The Economist] Daryl Morey writes on the difficulty of predicting performance in NBA

Then the statistical error was ignoring the %ages of HOF players who make great coaches.

 

And Morey's stock continues to plummet. He has gone from boy genius to apologist.

 

Now Morey is manufacturing built-in excuses for himself with propaganda pieces like this.

 

Well even taken at face value, Morey leaves it unspoken..

because honestly that was the tie breaker in Lin's case. he was good enough on paper to take a look, but the "tiebreaker" kept him from actually getting drafted

in truth his article is disingenuous. Morey's pretty much arguing that Lin was an "average" prospect when we know full well that in 2 combines the mathematical metrics establish that Lin was far above average even compared to NBA players, something like 70-80% percentile even for professional athletes in the NBA

that article is disappointing. the entire point of Morey is looking at the advanced stats. he's talking about points, rebounds, assists. those are NOT sabremetrics. Morey knows full well that advanced stats like points in the paint, free throw attempts per possession etc Lin is among elite PGs. there's literally no way he doesn't know this but he's fudging with the stats to justify his position. even comparing a 21 point game versus a 30 point game at the college level isn't comparable in most cases. 21 points means you hit some shots and had a nice game. 30 points means you were dominating. looking at those two games Lin and Slater took about the same number of shots (18 for Lin and 17 for Slater) but Lin went for 30 and Slater for 21. 35% FG 64% FT -16 +/- is what Morey is holding up as an NBA prospect? that **** is embarrassing.

I give credit for Morey bringing Lin into camp, which is more than most GMs did. And given the prior evidence, about 30 NBA GMs were negligent. I gave props to Morey and have been wondering all along why when they got a look at the guy, Lin never stuck in Houston. Interestingly this article gives some subconscious insight to their thought process. It seems all along the math told Morey one thing but his mind told him another. Whatever human biases pollute our rational thinking process, even with Lin in front of him Morey saw Josh Slater in his mind. "The math is clear but is this just another small college fool's gold in Asian clothing? Can a guy like this actually make it? There are 30 small time black guards I could easily have in his place... am I really going to do this?"

The stats he uses makes no sense but I think he does honestly talk about his insecurities and misgivings relative to taking a chance on Lin. As I say he gets more credit than most but you don't get full credit for 2nd place in the NBA. Only 1 GM is going to win per year. And in this case the Knicks front office actually pulled the trigger that Morey only debated about.