nah, doesn't bother me. I think it's fun. It gives me another reason to care for the other teams not named the rockets.
So, let me get this straight: This year: - The Rockets have their own pick if in the lottery - They have the Knicks' pick if not top 5 - They have the Mavs' pick if not top 20 So, they could feasibly end up with all 3, or end up with none at all? Am I understanding this right?
The chances of getting all three are slim, and the chances of getting none are also low. But yes, it's definitely possible.
Yep you got it right. Best case scenario would be having those 3 picks and worst case scenario would be losing those 3. Here's my breakdown based on probability or chances that the Rockets might or might not own these picks: 1) Rockets own pick. 60% chances of losing it unless the Suns, the Jazz or even the Wolves overtake them for the final playoff spot. Note that the Suns are playing well as of late. 2) Knicks pick. 50%-50% chances of either losing it or having it. The Knicks might have to start winning because the Bucks are gaining grounds with their improved roster. There's a slim chance that the Hawks or even the Celtics might fall but it's hard to count on it. 3) Mavericks pick. 55% chances of getting it. The Mavs are still a veteran team and can heat up instantly besides they are the defending champions and probably have at least a pride of their own. If they manage to overtake the Grizzlies or the Clippers for the 4th or 5th spot in the west they'll end up in the 21-25 pick range as they can be no worse than the Celtic or Hawks in terms of winning percentage. Overall, chances of losing everything (in addition to the loss of our 2 2012 2nd round picks) is greater than having all the 3 picks. Anyway I'm still confident we can get at least 1 of 3 or even 2 of 3 at best.
One thing that Morey pointed out in the interview on 610 this morning is that the NYK once traded a pick with protection identical to the DAL pick they just acquired for taking on Fisher's salary (i.e. top 20 protected for 5 years, then unprotected) and, as it turned out, the Knicks never managed to get one of the top 10 records for the relevant 5-year period and had to convey the pick unprotected at the end of the day. The pick turned out to be 9th overall in the 2010 draft (Gordon Hayward). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_NBA_Draft NYK initially traded the pick (top 20 protected 2005) to Phoenix in January 2004 to acquire Stephon Marbury. A month later, PHX traded the pick to Utah in order to dump Tom Gugliotta's contract. So, there is some "upside" to this pick having heavy protection: It is not inconceivable that an aging Dallas team would not have a top 10 regular season record for any of the 5 upcoming years unless they make a big splash acquisition. Remember, NYK were not expecting to miss out on a top 10 finish every year after 2004 (especially after they landed star PG Marbury), but stuff happens. Personally, I am not that patient, and would rather the Rockets just get a pick in the low 20s this year if the draft has decent depth. But I wouldn't mind having an extra reason to root against Dallas for 5 more years.
