1. Of course a big contract is locked in, but I don't understand how that is a arguement against signing one. The point of being flexible is to use that flexibility to get a great player. 2. Even if we sign nobody, our starters next year will be older than OKC's were last year. Adding a veteran star like Howard or Paul would definitely make us contenders. 3. It doesn't make sense to let the development of role players determine the direction of your franchise. We should sign Howard or Paul if we can. If not, then we should wait for the next opportunity. We have to get another superstar, but we're never going to have our pick. That means no Josh Smith, but we can't wait around for Durant or Lebron.
There's an opportunity cost to waiting. Not directly aimed at the OP, but I've seen so many people say 'just wait and see how our guys develop.' It's a pretty nonchalant way of looking at it. Let's pause the sentimentality for our players and be realistic for a second. We either hope one of our prospects turns into a top 15 player, which is being VERY optimistic (as I've alluded to here). Or we wait for 2014, and granted I haven't done much research, but I don't think there's a better FA then Dwight there. Of course if DH isn't available I'd give it another year, and then we'd probably just have to settle for what's best left.
+1 Gasol would be the perfect acquisition for us. I hate helping the Lakers reduce their luxury tax bill, but Gasol brings too much to the table. And most importantly, he's a realistic target.
There really isn't a prime target out there. The guys that we know would demand the max contracts are either old, have recent injury issues or unlikely to leave their team outside of maybe Josh Smith and he may not be a legit MAX player down the line. Personally, I think if you can't get Chris Paul, then using the cash to improve the bench is probably the best path. I like Motiejunas for our future at the 4 spot and once his stamina improves he should be very good. Asik, I know for certain should be our starting Center and I think Lin and Parsons are good enough for our team as well.
You have to weigh the cost of waiting versus the risk in acting early. When you have next year to make a decision and this team is so young, there's no urgency to act. I don't think we need to sign J Smith at this juncture. I don't think there's a chance we will get Lebron the following year. But I do think there will be quality players that are near all-star caliber that can be a big help.
I don't think it matters if the second star we settle on is good enough to be the second star. Even if Josh Smith or Howard or Milsap are not good enough to make us contenders, they can still be worth having, if they are signed to a good contract. If 1 year from now, a Kevin Love or LaMarcus Aldridge has a falling out with his team but still has a contract, Morey can put something together for them centered around Josh Smith + young guy + picks. He'll have something more enticing than cap relief + young guy + picks. You may curtail some options in free agency (though there are still S&Ts), but you open up others via trade. But it only works if the centerpiece guy is worth more than what you have to pay him. So, negotiating well and knowing when to walk away is vital. I'd like to see Morey go ahead and make offers to Paul, Howard, Smith, Milsap, etc down the line with conservative bids to get the most valuable player we can get on a value contract. As long as the contract doesn't go underwater, you can always flip it.
Problem is, you are going to have to over pay to get those guys, and if they underperform at all you will be underwater and stuck with the contract. I'm telling you, we don't want to be the NY Knicks again. And just look as little back as the T-mac/Yao era to see how big contracts can hamper a team. Yes, you have to take a risk, but gamble wisely. Not sure I'd gamble on Smith. Missap is a better choice but I don't think he's that much of a game changer. Howard - maybe it's the best choice but I'd think long and hard before signing him to a big deal.
Chris Paul is like the king of LA basketball right now. Clippers are bulldozing teams. I cannot see any situation where he comes to Houston. I just don't see it.
Gasol is a plodder and not a complementary piece for the Rockets in the least. I suggest to watch some Rockets games and see the offense and then to watch films of Gasol.
That's why I'm saying don't overpay. If the market price is higher than makes sense, let some other sucker win that auction and move to the next target. But, it's not a simple binary of 'this guy isn't worth courting;' it's 'Josh, I'll pay you X dollars if you come, take it or leave it.' That may effectively mean waiting till next summer, but it doesn't have to. That's why the max salary guys are so great. As long as you can figure out that a guy's worth is more than he's allowed to be paid, any contract is a good contract. You don't have to be terribly smart to handle that one. It's the guys who are worth something close to but less than the max who are hard to value. This offseason, Dwight Howard, despite his faults, is worth something more than max. Chris Paul too. It's a no-brainer to make those offers. If you want LaMarcus Aldridge and you have Dwight Howard, it can't be too hard to negotiate a trade. But, when you get into the Smith/Milsap range, you have to be able to divine the right number and be disciplined enough to stick to it and be ready to be outbid.
Gasol is less a "plodder" than Asik, and Asik fits into the team just fine. I suggest you discuss topics instead of just using the mindless "go watch some film" trope.
I suggest you look at the past nba championship teams. The only ones that didn't have a post game had Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, or arguably Lebron James (he occasionally played in the post last year). Do we have anyone of that caliber? Gasol would be perfect for this team, especially since his next contract will be much cheaper than his current one.
The benefits of doing nothing are a solid consolation prize if you can't get a legitimate superstar, but as others have said, should not be the primary goal going into the off season. If you can get a player you believe will be a top 10 player for the next 3-4 years or more you go for it. Fortunately Morey has proven that even when he misses on a player, he makes sure he set it up so that the long term salary cap negatives are minimal. We can remain fairly confident that he isn't going to use up all the cap space on less than star players just because it is there.
He will not be running but walking fast at most. His knees are already giving him problems this year and he had to sit. I guess the ones asking for him now want the Rockets to lose. Lakers fans?
Maybe this is a pipe dream but I'll put it out there anyway. I don't believe the Rox will do anything major this summer with their cap room. I believe unless Howard desires to come Morey is waiting for the summer of 2014 to do this: Sign Demarcus Cousins and Paul George with similar poison pill deals like he did with Asik and Lin. If need be Asik could be moved to Sac as it's the last year of his deal and would be an expiring. Indiana is going to have to make a decision regarding Granger after this year as well. They may not be inclined to handle a backloaded deal like Chicago wasn't regarding Asik. The lineup would then be: Cousins DMo/Robinson George/Parsons Harden/Free agent Lin/Beverly I know I left off Terrence Jones, but he and someone else could be moved for a backup of some sort, either a 5 or a shooter. Thoughts.
The poison pill contract worked with Chicago/New York b/c they already had a lot of committed salary in the poison pill year. It won't work with Indiana or Sacramento b/c they don't have much committed salary in those years.
Paul won't be available. So it's Howard. As for Josh Smith, we'll see what the bids end up with. I could see him going elsewhere.
Yeah, Paul is highly unlikely. But, you can still throw an iPad his way, just in case. Dwight is unlikely too. That's not really the point. They give you the biggest potential benefit, so that's where you start. At some point as you go down the list, you'll find a guy whose interests intersect with your own. If Smith is offered more money some place else, that's totally fine. But, if he somehow ends up signing a lowball contract (which seems pretty unlikely right now), I'd want it to be with the Rockets. He'd help to some extent now, and could be flipped later.
