1. Eric Gordon has to shoot well consistently, and come close to equaling Klay Thompson's performance I'm not talking about for a few games, I mean every game. EG needs to play like the 6th man we know he can be. We need 3-point champion Eric Gordon. He needs to be aggressive and play like a man possessed when he is on the floor. Nobody on GSW's bench is in the same stratosphere as EG, and he needs to show it. 2. James Harden cannot have a poor game Now I'm not saying he has to score 40 points every game, but we cannot beat the Warriors in a game where Harden shoots 4-17 and only has 16 points. He also needs to limit his turnovers. The MVP has no excuses, this is his time. 3. Ariza/PJ/Luc need to out shoot Draymond/Iguodala PJ Tucker has been phenomenal in these playoffs, but he needs to continue to shoot well. Ideally, Ariza/PJ/Luc will hit at least 6 threes total every game. Meanwhile Draymond and Iguodala must not catch fire from deep. We all know Steph, Klay, and Durant will shoot well for most of the games, but if Draymond and Iguodala make threes as well, then it will be very tough for the Rockets to win the series. Rockets in 7
I mean, I think these are kind of way off. - Number 1 should be continue to keep turnovers VERY low. You have to limit GSW possessions, especially easy possessions. - Number 2 should be exploit Steph's defense. - Number 3 should be find a defensive scheme that works. This MAY be just their current switch everything defense. - Number 4 should be rebounding. Defense and offensive. Do all the players have to play well, which is basically what you said?? Well... yeah, duh. Haha. But its almost impossible to "outscore" GSW just form a pure here are the key things we need, our guys need to do well and shoot well perspective. I mean, yes, but that still won't just outscore Steph/KD/Klay/Dray+ in a pure our guys play well, your guys play well game. We HAVE to have more possessions then the GSW. I don't see how we win 4 games if they have a possession advantage. Maybe 1... MAYBE 2, but not 4. That means limit turnovers. That means limit their possessions to one shot. That means get extra shots ourselves. And we HAVE to disrupt their flow somehow. Make them uncomfortable. That means make Steph defend as much as possible.
my opinion is extremely important and therefore can't be put in one of the hundreds of other GSW threads.
1 MVP 1 top 10 HOF PG 1 ideal modern center who can protect rim, rebound on both ends, and guard on switches 1 former 6th man 3 interchangeable wing defenders 3 solid vets 1 COY Best reg season record Home court adv And we are still underdogs. Tells you how great the other team is.
Am I the only guy here who thinks EGo can do more than just shooting his way out, he can defend guards, can assist and run pnr more, can go to the FT line more......as said in the Ringer article.
I agree and thankfully, the Rockets have shown an ability to execute on all of these fronts throughout the season and playoffs, especially No 1 and 4. Re No 2, Draymond has shown that he can neutralize the Rockets interior vertical game with Capela in the past (although not so much this season), even when they punish Steph's defense and are able to penetrate. Hopefully, this new Capela will show more aggression and grit, and not be denied as frequently, but this also depends on Harden/Paul manning up against Green. If this doesn't happen, then our shooters will have to be on their game more consistently for us to have any chance. Maybe we'll see a lot more of Ryno in this series... Re No 3, if it's not switch everything, then what will it be?!?
Keys to winning is not all about offense like OP is suggesting but more on who can limit the other team’s historic offense including forcing turnovers and limiting transition points.
1 - How much will Kerr allow Clint to affect this series? Our own Return of the Center saga has been the single greatest development thru the first 2 rounds that gives me hope for this series Outplaying KAT & Gobert back-to-back has IMO validated Clint as the 3rd core player on this team going forward Kerr and his staff have undoubtedly noticed, and I wonder ... Will GS respond with lineups that take Clint out of the gameplan? To me, Clint can only be effective when GS plays 1 of McGee/Zaza/Looney/West at 5 Even then, CC's effectiveness has been minimal on the court against these more favorable matchups (see +/- below) When they drop Draymond down and bring Iggy in to play the 3 in their LoDeath, I believe this is our best lineup to counter: Green - PJ KD - Ariza or Luc (whomever is hitting 3s that day) Iggy - Harden Klay - EGo Curry - CP3 If Kerr starts the games with this lineup, as he did vs Pelicans, I do not like the matchup of CC vs Draymond at 5 They can have him bring the ball up the court to initiate, meaning Clint starts out high having to switch on P&R Once in half-court set, they can park Green outside, pulling the backbone of our defense out of the paint If CC sags off to help on penetration, DG is a good enough shooter to make it a big problem McGee has not played against us this year, and Jordan Bell is out Here's the avg minutes breakdown of the other 3 bigs above against us this year (with composite +/-): Mpg 14 - Zaza (+7) 12 - West (+8) 12 - Looney (-2) So, on avg in a single game, the Warriors centers (excluding Draymond) have played 38 minutes against us with a composite +/- of +13 Draymond alone has averaged 34 mins @ +18 For reference, here is CC's composite stat line from all 3 games this year: 25 Mpg 15 Ppg 6 Rpg 1 Bpg 62.5 FG% -35 +/- Overall, despite winning 2 of the 3 games, CC's supposed advantage inside has been a wash vs Warriors bigs in the 3 matchups so far +13 vs -35 is a huge mismatch in their favor, no matter how you spin it I cannot isolate the individual CC vs Draymond matchup, but I'm certain it would be even worse statistically 2 major developments have happened since the last matchup in JAN: - Clint has taken major strides forward, just in the past couple of weeks - Javale McGee as taken over the majority of 5 minutes for GS Will the Rise of Clint continue thru the WCF? Or will GS adjust their rotations to effectively remove Clint as a major factor in this series? This is THE KEY question in determining the outcome IMO
To me, the biggest adjustment on this point would be (1) not to run PnRs with whomever Draymond is guard. Assuming Draymond starts out guarding Capela, that might be a problem for the Rockets, as Capela runs the best PnR and its baked into their DNA... so that leads me to (2) Seems like a relative simple fix here is run a quick PnR off ball before the main one. For example, assume the Hamptons lineup is in. Klay guards CP3, Curry guards Ariza, Iggy guards Harden, KD is on Tucker, Dray is on Capela. I'd run a very simple play. Assuming Harden has the ball near the top of the key. Which is run a PnR with Capela and Ariza on the wing. Dray will either switch with Curry, who will now be guarding Capela. In that case, you proceed to the Harden-Capela PnR. Or Dray fights through. In that case, you just have to run a much quicker PnR set, as they are now starting to rotate. Of course there are variations of this. Run the PnR first and have Dray switch onto Harden and "locking" him down. Well, run another PnR now again with Capela off ball, followed by Capela then setting another pick for Harden. Point being, if its just a matter of a PnR where Harden has Draymond on him, or CP3 has Draymond on him, and their dancing at the top of the key, that's not great. The other option here is to GO AWAY from Capela as the pick man. Simplest thing would be to just have Ariza (being guarded by Curry) be the pick man. This will obviously happen a fair amount... ... BUT I'd be very concerned if the Rockets can't continue to have their fair share of Capela based PnRs. It keeps Clint VERY motivated in the game, makes him active, engaged, rebounding and defending... beyond of course it typically resulting in highly efficient offense. Good question!! I feel like NOP and a lot of teams basically say ok, there's going to be an open shot somewhere, let's try and make it Draymond. Which is probably wise... EXCEPT the dude typically is fairly clutch and ups his game when required. If he has a bad game, he'll follow it up with a really good shooting game. He was on fire last night for example. Still, one option here is hedge, and double as necessary and pick your poison. I'm not in love with that generally as they just seem to have enough guys that if you are trying to force them to score with defensive schemes... well, they will. Like Iggy, or Livingston, or Young, or Draymond, or Klay. If you give them open shots, they will make them. It sounds stupid... but to me I just go out there Game 1, switch everything, try not to get beat to the rim, and if they make contested jumpers and mid range shots (KD), then they make them. Rebound, limit turnovers, and out/equal efficiency them via the math of the Rockets strategy. One thing I saw lots of times against Utah, which is concerning, is that after all the switching, sometimes the Rockets guys have a tendency to get sucked in just a little too much, which led to open threes. I just don't like it. Obviously you come for help if someone is beat... but not just randomly because you think they might need help. They're obviously a nearly impossible team to guard...
I don't remember now, but how did the Rockets approach the Warriors defensively during the 2 regular season wins?
Ego is key and I'm not talking about Eric Gordon, though he must have great games. (And I think he will.) That team over there has huge egos. They have a sense of entitlement. Both Durant and Steph think they are better than Harden and will try to prove it. Dray thinks he can bull-in-a-china-shop his way through anyone. It'll be like judo: how do we get them off balance enough to go against themselves? How do we get them playing hero-ball instead of team ball? How do we get Green to take himself out of the game? It'll be difficult, no doubt. Kerr is a good coach and will be looking out for just that. But we have CP3 who understands pace and the pacing of this series will decide a lot, I think. If we can control the ball and the pace so that they don't get on those double-digit spurts, it obviously increases our chances greatly. It also puts more pressure on GS to perform on every possession. When their D is breaking down a bit and the O has to work a little harder than usual, they can have some bad spells and then someone will feel like they have to take over. They may do it anyway because they are extremely talented, but maybe it's the opening we need. The psychology of this series will be huge and the ancient Greeks wrote a lot about hubris for a reason. As for the Rockets, there is an old franchise saying: "Stay Humble, Stay Hungry."
I've been saying it Eric Gordon, Eric Gordon, Eric Gordon, dude needs to show up or we need to look at other bench options next year. We need guys who show up in the playoffs.
Switch Curry onto Harden and expose that man for the defensive fraud he is. They'll double, and when they he harden can slice it up lol. Sigh, I wish it were that simple.
1. Steph Curry is the vortex that decimates teams once he gets on a roll. But the key to winning is how the Rockets defend KD. Kevin Durant is too good and was able to get to his spots at will in the post. Tucker, Ariza, Luc ALL must make him WORK for post position by being physical. Skinny folks like Durant need to get physically worn out. These guys will make shots, but the key is tired legs down the stretch of a close game. 2. The best defense sometimes against the Warriors is your BEST offense. The Rockets cant have lulls in scoring...You have to keep knocking down shots. 3. Prevent the OTHERS from changing the series. Guys like David West, Livingston, Iguodala cant be dropping 10-15...If that happens, you have NO shot. 4. vary defensive pressure and coverage...play zone like once in a while(especially when they have Durant and Curry on the bench). Set hard traps against the baseline(every so often, Livingston and Green run across the mid-court line to the side lines to set a play. When this happens, your guys. You have to attack their motion offense by controlled blitzing defense. A team that relies on precision passing, and repetition have players who have certain roles...Forcing them to do something different is the key to slowly down their offense. 5. Cant let Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala...bring up the basketball and be point guards...PRESSURE THEM full court if you have to. It will be tiring, but that is why everyone on the bench needs to be ready. 6. NO one is giving you a chance to beat them...but the key is to play like you are already down in the series. Play hungry, play for each other, and just have fun...trash talk...get chippy...and just compete. If you do all that, you live with the results.
I think we can suffer a bad shooting game from Harden. What we can't afford is TURNOVERS! He can't be carelessly throwing the ball away
Contain Nick Young. Seriously though, this guy is trash against any other team but always shoot lights out against rockets.
Good question. I can't recall scheme exactly either. Of note though, First game = first game of season. Ryan Anderson played 33 minutes. Zaza started and played 10 minutes (he's played all of 8 minutes the entire post-season). Rockets won 122-121 (and almost lost by a fraction of a second). Definitely not a defense first win. GSW had 80 shots, 19 FTA, 6 offensive rebounds and 17 turnovers. they made 16 of 30 threes, which is how they scored 122. Rockets had only 12 turnovers. Second game = No Kd. No Harden. Again Zaza started. Again Ryan started and got 25 minutes. Briante Webter and Tarik combined for 22 minutes. GSW scored 124 points. Again... definitely not a defensive masterpiece. GSW had 87 shots (too many), 20 FTA (the most this year against the Rockets, too many), 6 offensive rebounds, and 12 turnovers. They were 13 of 30 from three. Rockets had 10 turnovers. Third game = No Iggy. No Ariza or Green. Again Ryan and Zaza both started and got decent minutes. Rockets held GSW to 108 this game. GSW had 82 shots, 15 FTA and only 4 offensive rebounds, with 19 turnovers. They were 17 of 36 from three. Rockets had 15 turnovers. So it's really really hard to make any conclusions. Lineups have changed. There seems to be little to point to specifically about why GSW went for 122 and 124 in two games, but only 108 in the final one... OTHER THAN, MAYBE, possessions.
