Firstly, the evaluation is in the context of the playoffs. Spamming works well in the regular season, when teams cannot afford to game plan extensively for a specific opponent. That changes in the playoffs, when specific game planning and targeted adjustments are the norm. Last season WCF, after the two 100+ pts games, Rockets didnt score 100pts in the last 5 games (averaging 91pts). The bucks are a better defensive team (personnel wise) than the warriors and dont really have the weak link like Curry to pick on The buck on the other dont have such a biased offensive game and do almost everything reasonably well. Thus even if you take away one or two options, they still have enough production to win, particularly from supporting players and off the bench. The defensive side from last season was overrated cos GSW scored 100pts in 3 of the last 5 games (and only failed to do so in 2 games)
The Bucks could have put their worst defender on Harden the way they were playing him. Anyone can stand beside/behind him and give him a wide open lane. Even Curry. That was the craziest defensive scheme I've seen against Harden and it worked perfectly because it forced him to shoot the shots he doesn't really want to shoot (midrange/floater) or pass to wide open role players who bricked 3 after 3. It's a genius plan when our shooters go in to scrub mode like that.
Cleaning The Glass had an article about this. I don't subscribe so I couldn't read. But the Bucks have a *venus fly trap* type defense encouraging 3pt shots for bad shooters (or shooters that shoot poorer in different locations.) Example, don't let PJ Tucker shoot corner threes. But above the break 3's? fire away! You are open, please shoot!
I am pretty shocked these tweets aren't on the boards, or perhaps I missed them. Posting below. I am not going post ALL of the tweets and there is video with each. Go click on the first tweet to see the *thread* of the rest. Very interesting!! cc @heypartner
Another bad luck reason for losing (in addition to the Rockets missing WIDE OPEN 3 point looks): Connaughton 4-5 from 3pt (32% on the season) Bledsoe 4-7 from 3pt (32% on the season) These are two Corey Brewer-caliber shooters having an uncharacteristic AMAZING shooting night in the same game.
In the playoffs, the Rockets posted offensive ratings of 115.7 against the Wolves, 109.9 against the Jazz before posting a 101.8 against the Warriors. The last rating is pretty much how the series would have to go against the Warriors, i.e. dirty and mucked up. It also is pretty skewed because, as you know, Paul missed the last two games. All this to say that their offense doesn't sputter in the playoffs like you say. I don't think using 100 points is a good way to measure offense. You have to account for pace etc., since the Rockets are dead last at that. This also reduces turnovers and makes it harder for teams to beat them as it eliminates a lot of the easy points that can kill you in the playoffs. I agree with you regarding Milwaukee's personnel (i.e. no weak guard to pick on), but note that they do have weak link in their front court, such as Lopez, Mirotic, and Ilyasova. The Rockets have not done a good job of attacking Milwaukee's scheme to hide Lopez of dropping him all the way at the basket in PnR situations. I suspect that this will change in the playoffs. He is the one they will have to target along with the other lead footed front court players of the Bucks. The Rockets will have their work cut out for them defensively. But they were able to muck up the Warriors, which indicates to me that it is reasonable to hope they can do the same against a lesser offense like Milwaukee, especially because the Bucks have a star with clear limitations in Giannis. This is something Bzdelik can work with. Overall, the Rockets were good in the playoffs with a defensive rating of 106.4. They were especially good against Utah with a defensive rating of 100.4. Against the Warriors, they cratered in the last two games, which, again, you have to take Paul's absence into account. Last year's Rockets showed that their scheme works, health permitting. This year's Rockets has a similar offense but has not shown their defensive chops consistently. As such, I think it is reasonable to conclude that it is their defense that will be the x factor in the playoffs. The offense will work against any team, even Milwaukee.
its not bad luck role players tend to overachieve when you give them wings which rockets did by missing wide open shots and making several unforced turnovers in a row
I still subscribe to the theory that MDA has a counter for this but didn't want to show his hand before the playoffs. An effective counter that the Bucks haven't seen before is like having already won game 1 in a potential finals matchup.
Team are always going to learn from each other. This is why they have scouts and video coordinators and coaches who spend their time scrutinizing all this stuff. But it still takes talent to pull off any tactic successfully. You can no more become the Bucks by copying them than you can become Harden by using him as blueprint.
