From 538... The Dems only need capture 14 counties to flip. Mapping The Changing Face Of The Lone Star State This is a couple of years old but still a good read. Change is coming, but it's not coming soon enough.
We need to recapture the Legislature. A good start would be enough seats to block the more extreme measures that have been sailing through the Lege the last few years. Then get at least one statewide elected office. The party has to become relevant again. Texas isn't nearly as conservative as some people seem to believe. Time to begin changing the perception that it is that conservative, in my opinion. The demographics are not going in a direction that favors the GOP.
Perhaps if Texas teeters on becoming a "liberal" state. The Republicans will become less scary crazy (less Ted Cruz like)
It all depends on the Latinos. Once they start voting Texas will turn blue or we will have the Repubs finally abandoning neo-confederacyism.
Texas will stay red; no one wants to pay taxes and hispanics take the same role here that blacks play in the rest of the South: large, threatening demographic that needs to be blunted politically at all times. Don't be surprised if Southern whites start subconsciously breeding and marrying at higher rates, too.
#1 the already gerrymandered districts make it a massive uphill climb to actually elect anyone #2 This is still a very religious state and religious people vote with passion, they will show up and vote in blocs #3 non-white and liberal voters have a huge inertia to overcome. We have felt unrepresented and apathetic about the our electoral power for 50 years. It would take 8 or 10 years of productive re-organizing to make a dent. #4 the opposition has the money. And right now political 'talk' is dominated by extreme right wing AM radio. No one but the goobers are getting a daily affirmation that their struggle is righteous. I don't see the demographics showing up in election results, ever really
Brazoria, Galveston, and Fort Bend are automatic Republican. I don't see those flipping for a very long time. Same with the suburban counties around Dallas County.
When Texas turns blue.....the Republicans will never have another President. There only hope will be to create another, more moderate political party.
The vote totals for 2012 in Texas for the reelection of Obama was: Obama - 3,308,124 Romney - 4,569,843 That's a 1.25 million vote difference in an election where a popular incumbent Democrat won reelection. I think Texas is going to stay reliably Republican for the near future. Having said that, its undeniable the obvious trend in the changing demographic of the state of Texas is more and more favorable to left leaning candidates than those of the right. If this trend continues, it seems inevitable Texas becomes blue. So, will the trend continue? The demographic trend certainly will continue for the foreseeable future, but what is less clear is whether the support for the left's policies will continue to be embraced by that demographic. And that is completely dependent on 2 things. 1. Who the individual candidates for office are (i.e. How well they communicate their message). 2. How the country evaluates the direction of the country. (i.e. How close the winners come to fulfilling their promises). What seems obvious is the country is restless to do better. There is disagreement about what is wrong exactly, or who is to blame...but there can be no doubt the people are not happy with the direction of the country. This always spurs the "change" vote. UNLESS, there is a very good or very bad candidate running. The lesson (IMHO) seems obvious to both parties. Pick. Better. Candidates.
They are sort of hoping that hispanics in Texas will vote like black people everywhere. Hispanics in Texas simply don't vote as a single block and don't just vote for whoever is the Democrat no matter who they are. That's what will delay and perhaps prevent the leftist wet dream of Texas turning blue.
They already vote Democrat. When was the last time a true conservative was elected as the Mayor of any of those cities?
LOL... that is a safe bet. http://mctx.org/election/Results/2012_November_General_Cumulative_Report.pdf?ts=1023345692 When I lived in California I lived near Grass Valley/Nevada City, a very conservative part of the state. One year my voters handbook mysteriously didn't appear in the mail, luckily my GOP registered wife's did. :grin: Moving to Montgomery county, my first chance to vote was held in a private school library... conveniently you got to walk past a book sitting up on a bookshelf in plain site entitled "The Great Presidents of the United States" that had a small picture of GWB on the cover. I sure that book's placement was by accident... :grin:
lol If well off fudamentalist Christians who believe deeply in waiting for non-existent trickle down remain in power we might have everyone including Latinos breeding more. Unemployed folks with only abstinence for birth cotnrol and time on their hands may tend to lie around with each other ffing as a cheap form of entertainment.
A good start to capturing the legislature would be to have candidates like Bernie Sanders who are more exciting than the type of cautious triangulating centrists who have not inspired young or working class folks to vote.
I don't know. In 2012, Democrats received 1.4 million more votes than Republicans did and still lost the house by like 30 something seats. The gerrymandering effect is strong.
Texas will turn blue, eventually. Present day's younger millennials and their future children will see to it.
