Opponent, win or loss, and percentage chance we have to win. Oppo. W/L % USCe - L (30) Lamar - W (100) Rice - W (100) SMU - W (100) ARK - W (75) MSU - W (70) Ole Miss - W (75) Alabama - L (8) ULM - W (100) Auburn - L (35) Mizzou - W (75) LSU - W (40) Sure, It is over confidence through the roof, but I think our offense is better this year than last due to depending on the running game more and the WR core getting better with the OL improving. Really looking forward to seeing what this offense does post Johnny. Our defense may not be much better than last year, but I think the guys up front improve. Not going in depth, but I would be surprised if our defense was worse this year than last. I think we are likely to be 8-4, but the games against @USCe, @MSU (who comes off a bye after playing LSU), Ole Miss (a week after Bama and at Kyle finally), Mizzou, and LSU (at Kyle and both teams are young on D) will determine the season. Going 4-1 vs. 1-4 will make or break our season.
Who knows - the offense may be better, but I don't see how that could be anyone's realistic prediction, over-confident or not. Regardless of who is in the on deck circle, you just lost 3 first round talents at arguably the 3 most important positions on offense - QB, LT, and WR1. Smart money is on the offense regressing.
I hear you, but you get a new coach calling plays (well, the same from the Duke game but not the regular season), more depth at WR2 and WR3 while still having what could be a '12 Evans at WR1, a better running back core (loved Malena, but the Williams and Carson are better), you replace your first round LT with a guy who was graded as a first round T last year that came back, and you have a TE that was extremely underutilized last year. I agree, though. It is hard to look at last year and say that any offense will come close to filling its shoes, but I think they under performed last year. I think the have the tools to play at a higher level all around and be more balanced than last year.
Ultimately, it's going to come down how well Kenny Hill can run the offense. While we're going to rely on the running attack more than when Manziel was there, he still has to mitigate turnovers.
You thought the offense underperformed last year? You may want to temper your expectations a bit. Regardless of your exact feelings toward Manziel, he's a Heisman-winning quarterback. Those don't grow on trees.
Class of '12, and never said he wasn't great. I do, though, think that he played a majority of the LSU and Mizzou game injured. Great or not, his health played a role in how we played. I think if you go back and watch the offense in the second half of the Mizzou game and a majority of the LSU game, you'll see what I am talking about. I don't know if A&M will ever have another quarterback as good as Johnny, but I think even Johnny would like to have those games back. That being said, more rushing plays with Williams/Williams/Carson, an O-Line that should be as good as last year (if not better due to experience and still high caliber talent), a better wide receiving core... if Hill "gets it" early on, you could see a great offense that is more in sync than last years. And VJ is right. Turnovers will be key.
I don't know where to start. Almost every quarterback sustains injuries throughout the season...Manziel, McCarron, Mariotta, etc... all played through injury last season. If anything Manziel's health was pretty remarkable for how much time he spent scrambling. The point is that even 10 healthy games and 2 injured games from Manziel is likely >>>> than 12 games of anyone else healthy (And who says that whoever plays is healthy all 12 games). You keep saying running more rushing plays = better, but your biggest success has come running an air raid offense. A more balanced system sounds great in theory but isn't playing to your strengths and, in fact, plays right into Bama's/LSU's/etc... strengths. Better OL and WR? Possible, but not likely. Matthews is being replaced by another talent at LT, but that guy is sliding over from RT which will now presumably be manned by a less experienced/talented player. Same at WR...It's not as easy to replace a guy like Mike Evans as you seem to think. I don't know how much more 'in sync' of an offense you can expect, considering last year's team was top 10 in nearly every conceivable offensive category.
1) Being able to run the ball better will help with time of possession and will keep the defense off the field longer, resulting in a defense that doesn't run out of steam late in games. Plus, with Tra Carson and both of the Williams I would argue that RB is a strength. 2) Ogbuehi is moving to LT to replace Matthews, who moved to LT to replace Joekel... it's how Sumlin works. Plus, the Aggies will have a healthy RSJ (6'5", 235) and Frank Iheanacho (6'6", 230) there at wideout. Sure they're freshmen, but the size is there. Plus, the depth at both WR and OL is better than it was last year. 3) A new QB and what is probably a dedication to more ball control will probably result in a drop in offensive stats, but barring a complete collapse by both Hill and Allen, I don't think 8 or 9 wins is completely out of the question.
1. Yes, I understand the basics of time of possession, but who says a&m will be better able to run the ball? If anything, having a superstar QB like Manziel and a potent passing game only makes it easier to run the ball. Just saying, "Hey we won't be able to pass like last year - Let's RUN the ball!" doesn't make it so. 2. That was a great strategy when a&m had a cupboard full of first round talents who could swing between either tackle spot and either guard spot. Much like Heisman QBs, those don't grow on trees. Ogbuehi is the last of the Sherman-recruited OL phenoms. Height at WR? Who cares? Mike Evans happened to be a great tall receiver, but there are plenty of great short WRs and plenty of ****ty tall WRs. 3. I don't know enough about a&m's depth chart to make guesses as to what is out of the question, but the talk of the offense being more efficient or 'in sync' is nonsense and I don't even know what it means. a&m had a monster offense the last two years and just replicating that would be a monumental feat.
So in other words, "I don't know what they've got, but I'm going to assume it's not as good as what they've had in the past" is your answer? Do we know that there's another Matthews or Evans on the roster? No, but I'm willing to bet that the plethora of 4 and 5 *'s Sumlin has recruited the past 2 (going on 3) years will result in a better team than what was left to him.
I follow recruiting in Texas, so I have an idea of the big names on the roster (RSJ, Myles Garrett, Nick Harvey, etc...), but, no, I haven't gone through with a fine toothed comb to determine how many wins I think a&m will get. a&m has recruited well, so I'm sure they will be fine long-term, but I'm just poking holes in the argument that the offense will somehow be better despite losing a Heisman QB and first round talents at LT and WR1. The law of numbers says that there probably aren't equivalent talents ready to take the reigns immediately, and pure common sense says that, even if there are equivalent talents, they likely won't be ready to replace that production as freshman/sophomores/first-time starters. Is that so hard to understand?
They are going to definitely pack on a lot of wins in the 1st half of the season. I think most will predict a Loss to South Carolina but they should win the next 5 or so. People are picking Ole Miss as the sleeper this year but I have no idea how good they are. Then there is Auburn, LSU and Alabama. Going to be a tough 2nd half of the season. Is Missou suppose to be good this year?
I'm anticipating a 7 win season. More than that, and I would ecstatic because it means our defense got significantly better. I could honestly see scenarios of anywhere between 5 and 9 wins this year. Would definitely feel a lot better if we didn't have so many thugs kicked off the team this year. I'm definitely excited about the next couple years though when we can have some real talent on D to go along with an already great O. A noticeable improvement on D this season will help the next few years go even better.
Whatever. Thanks for all of your non-Aggie/SEC opinions. I cannot wait until Thursday when we are playing prime time SEC football.
This reminds me of "Garrett Gilbert has like an even STRONGER arm than Colt McCoy" talk. Here's a hint - when you start off with "Sure, we lost all our best players...but" just stop. You lost them. They're not coming back.
