Texans sign Brock Osweiler

zeeshan2 · Aug 9, 2016

"There are a lot of reasons why I decided to go to Houston, and with all due respect, I don’t want to go completely into that question," said Osweiler. "It’s August. The one thing that I will say is I love the football team, and I came here to be a part of this second-to-none organization, from the top down, from Mr. McNair [owner Bob McNair] to the coaching staff to a locker room full of players I respect. I viewed this as a special opportunity, and I have absolutely no regrets with the decision I made."
Right answer.

But now, here, he’s in charge. He’s done so much already in chemistry class. He rented a big suite for one of the Copa America games at NRG Stadium in the summer and invited everyone on the team; most came. He footed the bill for all the receivers to come to Phoenix and work out with him during the spring at his alma mater, Arizona State. He brought the other quarterbacks and their significant others to his home in Idaho for a few days of R&R and football talk.
And he seems so comfortable with being The Man, as if he’s been in training for it while in Denver, and even before that. He gestures decisively on the practice field in training camp and approaches DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller with (sometimes) pointed words about the route they just ran. He throws extra balls to the rookies if they haven’t had enough reps, even with the heat index at 120 degrees. "He is the kind of player and leader you want in your starting quarterback," said GM Rick Smith, watching Osweiler practice on Sunday. "You have to have a presence as a starting quarterback in the NFL, and he has it. The word I use about him is ‘authentic.’ He fits the position, and he fits us."
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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/08/09/texans-camp-osweilers-team

J.R. · Aug 12, 2016

Ranking young QBs with most upside

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr threw for 3,987 yards and 32 touchdowns in 2015. The tape is nice, too. And at only 25 years old, Carr's upside is off the charts. The arm strength that resembles a howitzer, the touch throws, the movement skills: Carr is rapidly developing a deep toolbox at the position with only two years of experience on his pro resume.

So, where does Carr stand among the young quarterbacks in the NFL? While we wait to get a look at rookies Jared Goff and Carson Wentz against pro competition, let's rank the 25-and-under signal-callers in the NFL -- Jacksonville's Blake Bortles, Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater, Oakland's Carr, Tennessee's Marcus Mariota, Houston's Brock Osweiler and Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston -- based on their upside.

1. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders

The upside: From the velocity on his throws, to the touch he has developed to target the seam or fade, Carr has the makings of a star player in this league. In only two seasons, Carr has tossed 53 touchdowns and his Total QBR climbed from 38.2 as a rookie to 49.2 in his second season. The developmental signs are there and the upside should have Raiders fans thinking big.

You want to see Carr sling it? Go check out some of the throws he made against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The skinny post, the seam to split the safeties. Big time. Or turn on the tape against the Green Bay Packers and watch Carr drop an absolute dime on the deep corner route to Amari Cooper. Wow. That's legit stuff.

On deep-ball throws (20 or more yards), Carr's numbers are excellent: 93.9 Total QBR (10th in the NFL), along with 10 touchdowns (tied for third). He can get it out there. And he's not afraid to challenge the opposing secondary. That means finding tight windows, seeing the safety and fitting the ball in for another explosive gain.

I mentioned the movement skills on Carr above because he can get outside the pocket, he's athletic and he's also a natural for today's spread game. Raiders offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave has done a very good job mixing spread and pro concepts together in the game plan for Carr. That's why we see the RPOs (run-pass options) show up on the tape. And that's also why the Raiders can reduce the formation or widen the field. Carr is a fit there.

The concern: Carr can panic at times. That showed up in the fourth quarter of the Raiders' Week 13 loss at home to the Kansas City Chiefs. Carr's gunslinger mentality hurt him a bit. Carr did throw 13 interceptions this past season and I think he can add some thickness still to his frame (listed at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds) to survive the beating he is going to take over the course of a long career.

But in terms of straight upside, Carr has it. The ball comes out hot, and his skill set is a fit for today's league.
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2. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The upside: Winston played like a rookie during the first month of the season in 2015. From Weeks 1-4, he posted a 35.6 Total QBR (27th overall). But from Weeks 5-17, that QBR rose to 65.6 (10th). And, really, the slow start should have been expected as opposing defensive coordinators worked to confuse the young quarterback with coverage disguises and late safety rotations.

But as Winston showed on the tape last year, he has the tools, the pro-style mold and the intangibles at the position to accelerate his development in his second season. I call him a "gamer," because he makes plays in critical situations, or when the competition level rises. That includes throwing the seam, making a play with his feet, moving the safety to create a window or challenging the secondary in the middle of the field. And he's tough. Really tough. Pro guys love that stuff when their QB takes a shot and keeps playing. Those are the leaders of the team.

You want to see a young quarterback manipulate the safety over the top of the defense? Then watch Winston against the Atlanta Falcons or Philadelphia Eagles. In the three- and five-step game, he can generate daylight to deliver inside breaking routes (slant, post, bang 8). That's part of the reason why Winston ranked 10th in Total QBR (90.1) on throws between 10 and 20 yards down the field.

The concern: At times, Winston struggles with overall mechanics and patience underneath. At times, he looks rushed on short throws. In 2015, Winston's QBR on throws under 10 yards dropped to 50.2 (28th overall). And while he's not a pure deep ball thrower either -- he ranked 28th in QBR on throws 21 yards or more downfield -- he has the talent to improve both of those throwing levels.

Given the reports of Winston dropping weight and improving his conditioning this offseason, there is a tremendous amount of upside for a quarterback who threw for 4,402 yards in 2015 -- the third most by a rookie. He can play.
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3. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans

The upside: The narratives surrounding Mariota throughout the draft process on the offensive system he ran at Oregon were a bit shortsighted. The tape tells us he can play -- and produce -- in a pro offense. In 12 games last season, Mariota threw for 2,818 yards, and he also tossed 19 touchdowns with a Total QBR of 61.0 (16th overall). That's a good number for a rookie, especially one who was supposedly "transitioning" from a college spread system. Please. Mariota's skill set can work in any offense you draw up.

Now, from an upside perspective, there is a ton to like with Mariota given his tape, athleticism and natural throwing motion. He has 4.5 speed. That's flying for a quarterback. But it was also underutilized last season in Tennessee. In fact, Mariota had only 17 designed quarterback runs in 2015. That's too low of a number given his ability to put stress on an opposing defense with his legs. The touchdown run he produced on the zone-read scheme against Jacksonville last season is a prime example.

That has to change this season, along with more RPOs to cater to his skill set. Put this guy in situations that maximize his talent while creating even more opportunities in the passing game.

Mariota can throw every route in the playbook, too. And that's inside or outside of the pocket. Movement passes are a positive thing with Mariota. He has enough juice in his arm to test the top of the secondary, and he has a nice touch on the ball when finding open windows over the top of the linebackers in zone coverage. And his footwork -- while still improving -- is much better than I expected. Again, he's a natural at the position with the vision and quick release to challenge.

The concern: This one is easy: Durability. Mariota has a thin frame and he missed four games last season (knee) while taking a beating in that system. The Titans can protect him by running the football more under Mike Mularkey and taking some of the stress off their young quarterback. This isn't a guy who should be throwing 40-plus passes a game.

The key here is to facilitate his growth at the position, cater to his skill set and take advantage of the unique upside he brings to the NFL. Get creative, use that talent and showcase a quarterback who is the future of the league. Fast and athletic with the natural passing skills to win.
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4. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

The upside: The 2015 numbers from Bortles jump off the page: 4,428 yards and 35 touchdowns. Those are monster stats for a second-year quarterback. And we've seen the development on tape, too. In 2014, as a rookie, Bortles posted a lowly 25.2 Total QBR, but that climbed to 46.5 in his second season. And that speaks to his growth/upside.

Bortles improved his footwork and field vision this past season and his overall technique is much better. Plus, he had more control of the offense in his second season. The arm strength? There's enough. He can get the ball down the field and I love his size/athleticism in the pro game. At 6-foot-5, 246 pounds, with the movement skills to get to the edge of the pocket, Bortles has the frame to take shots over a 16-game season.

Now, I will question some of those numbers he posted because of the game situation. Trailing often, Bortles could play without a conscience against some soft defensive looks. Think Cover 2 or Cover 6 (quarter-quarter-half) with defenses sitting back in zone shells. And Bortles took advantage of those opportunities with deep shots to wide receivers Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson.

Take the game down in New Orleans this past season against the Saints. With the Jags in a 24-0 hole (after two rough Bortles interceptions), and a poor Saints defense sitting back deep in the secondary, Bortles had windows to expose. Take the drop and chuck it.

Does that mean there is less upside for Bortles? Nah. But his overall numbers should take a drop this season. And that's fine if the Gus Bradley's squad can run the football and control the tempo while taking more calculated shots in the game plan.

The concern: His decision making. He still forces throws and can be late with the ball (check out Josh Norman's pick against Bortles on a late throw to the flat). He needs to be quicker with his reads. Bortles threw 18 interceptions last season. And while some of that can be contributed the game situations we just talked about, he has to cut down on the turnovers. That's a must.
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5. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings

The upside: Of all the quarterbacks on this list, Bridgewater posted the highest Total QBR this past season (62.7). He's consistent, he's smart with the ball and he will battle. Go to the tape, against quality defenses such as the Denver Broncos or Arizona Cardinals, and watch him compete. He plays hard.

Those are good games to watch on Bridgewater because they highlight his ability to maneuver in the pocket while also challenging the secondary on short-to-intermediate routes against top-tier defensive units.

In 2015, Bridgewater posted a Total QBR of 88.8 on throws between 10 and 20 yards downfield (12th overall). He has a really soft touch when throwing the seam, and enough power in that arm to deliver the ball on the deep comeback or out cut. Where he struggled was on throws over the top, 21 or more yards down the field. That's when his QBR dropped to 36.5 (30th overall). Sure, Bridgewater can still get the ball down the field. There are examples of that this past season when he targeted Stefon Diggs or Mike Wallace. But he doesn't have an arm like Carr and his accuracy slips a bit on deep balls.

The concern: I would love to see him add some size. He is listed at just 6-foot-2, 215 pounds. Can he hold up?

And we have to mention the system Bridgewater plays in under Norv Turner. You will see more throws underneath -- shallow crossers, flat routes, curls, etc. It's a conservative offense with Adrian Peterson as the focal point of the game plan. And Bridgewater takes what the defense gives him. If that means throwing the check-down or opting for an underneath target, that's where he is going with the ball.

That's why I'm a little low on Bridgewater here in terms of his overall upside at this stage of his career. But I would also say that Bridgewater has the highest floor of the group. He's solid. He's consistent. He's a low-risk quarterback with the skill set to win playing within Turner's system and the personnel around him.
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6. Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans

The upside: With only seven starts in 2015, the tape on Osweiler is limited. And it's pretty underwhelming, too. Playing with an all-world defense in Denver last season, Osweiler was more of a game manager in Gary Kubiak's system. And the numbers supported that: 10 touchdowns, six interceptions and a Total QBR of 48.8. Think of quick throws, the boot game and some calculated shots down the field when the Broncos got the look they wanted.

Now, I like his size in the pocket (6-foot-8, 240 pounds). Plus, the big man can move a little bit. That shows up in the boot game, and he is pretty advanced with his footwork in the pocket. He can slide the feet, throw the shoulder forward and climb. And he is quick to find underneath options in the passing game.

This past season, on throws of 15 yards or less, Osweiler ranked eighth with a total QBR of 75.9. He can get the ball out, find the option routes, the stick concepts, the shallow crossers and the high-low combos in the middle of the field. Think about the intermediate routes too -- the ones that break between 12-15 yards. That could be the curl or dig inside the numbers and the comeback outside. That's where Osweiler is going to earn his money this season under Bill O'Brien in Houston.

The concern: On throws 20 or more yards downfield, Osweiler lacks some zip and accuracy on the ball. Last year, his QBR on such throws dropped to 35.7 (31st overall) and he completed only 25 percent of his passes (30th). Sure, there are good plays on the tape, such as the deep seam route against the Steelers where Osweiler rips the ball to split the top of the secondary. But overall, his game has to improve when throwing the top of the vertical route tree.

The way I see it, Osweiler has to make some developmental gains. And the Texans have added some nice pieces to the offense to facilitate that. Along with stud wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, there is new speed in Houston with Lamar Miller at running back and rookie receivers Will Fuller and Braxton Miller. And given that the Texans' offense is built on three- and five-step timing routes, Osweiler is in a very solid situation to grow at the position.

But until we see that growth and development, the upside right now on Osweiler is still kind of a mystery. He has size, mobility and the arm to produce in a system like O'Brien's. Now we just have to see it play out
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How Texans can accelerate Brock Osweiler's growth

In eight games last season, new Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler put together a pedestrian stat line: 10 TDs, six interceptions and a below-average Total QBR of 48.8. And the film meshed with those numbers. It was OK, even underwhelming at times, as Osweiler managed the system under Denver Broncos coach Gary Kubiak, with the NFL's best defense taking the pressure off the quarterback. Quick throws, boot action and limited shots over the top.

However, since the Texans are restocking their offensive talent and adding more speed to complement the smooth skill set of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, is Osweiler in a position to produce better numbers with Texans coach Bill O'Brien? Let's discuss how the Texans can accelerate the development of Osweiler after giving him $37 million guaranteed after just seven NFL starts.

Osweiler's résumé

Osweiler's tape from the 2015 season doesn't jump off the screen. Sure, there are some big-time throws when Osweiler holds the free safety and delivers a strike to target the seam, post or deep crosser (here's one example). And his footwork/pocket management is better than I expected. For a big man (6-foot-8, 240 pounds), Osweiler is pretty well-groomed in the pocket with his ability to slide, climb or throw the shoulder forward versus edge pressure. Plus, he can get to the edge of the pocket on boot schemes. He's athletic.

But Osweiler is not a true deep-ball quarterback. In 2015, on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield, he ranked 30th in completion rate (25 percent) and 31st in Total QBR (35.7). Based on the tape, he lacks accuracy and deep-ball velocity on throws over the top of the defense. Instead, his production -- and his fit under O'Brien -- will come in the short-to-intermediate game.

Last season, on throws of 15 yards or less, Osweiler ranked eighth with a Total QBR of 75.9. Those are the stick routes, option routes, high-low combinations, curls, digs and comebacks. This system under O'Brien reminds me of the New England Patriots' offense, with three- and five-step combos for the quarterback. Read the coverage and get the ball out. Add in the boot game (free targets for the tight end) and now we are talking about an offense with new speed that fits what Osweiler has done best.

The idea here is simple: Don't ask Osweiler to do too much. And let him develop within the system. It's "QB 101" when you are working with an inexperienced quarterback who has put together average film at this stage of his career. Facilitate production and protect your quarterback from forcing throws.

It starts with the running game

Before we get to Hopkins and the new speed outside at the wide receiver position, RB Lamar Miller has to be discussed as the biggest free-agent addition to this squad. Think about this: Under O'Brien, the Texans have called a running play 43.7 percent of the time. That's third-highest rate in the league since 2014, and it speaks to the balance O'Brien wants to create on offense with zone and power schemes that control the tempo and generate passing opportunities.

In 2015, Miller averaged 4.5 yards a carry and produced eight touchdowns for the Miami Dolphins -- including a 175-yard day against the Texans' defense. This guy can scoot. He's got vision, speed through the hole, and the slashing ability to squeeze out daylight in zone blocking schemes (watch). I like his tape, and he comes to the Texans with fresh legs after carrying the rock only 194 times last season. Underutilized in the Miami system, Miller will be a bell cow for O'Brien with big-play ability.

Plus, Miller has versatility as a receiver out of the backfield. He caught 47 passes last season for Miami. That means the screen game, quick balls to the flat, and safe checkdown options for Osweiler.

The narrative that you have to chuck the ball all over the field to win in today's league is shortsighted, and it's also not a fit for what O'Brien wants to do in Houston. A three-down back like Miller can help take the pressure off Osweiler as he continues to grow.

Feed Hopkins -- a lot

Hopkins caught 111 passes last season (on 192 targets) for 1,521 yards (13.7 yards per catch) and 11 touchdowns. And he did that with Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates and Brandon Weeden throwing him the ball -- guys who have backup talent. Hopkins' body control at the catch point is ridiculous, and he doesn't need a ton of separation to finish. The red zone? Heck of a matchup weapon for the Texans. Throw the fade all day. He's a top-tier playmaker inside the 20-yard line (watch).

From Osweiler's perspective, Hopkins will be a security blanket. Run the three-step game (smash, slant, hitch), intermediate cuts, throw the quick fade (all over the field) and feed the No. 1 receiver. This also creates simple iso situations for Hopkins outside the numbers as the X or Z receiver. I'm talking about one-on-one matchups where Hopkins can push up the field and sit down past the sticks. Automatic stuff that will allow Osweiler to go through a quick read, get the ball out and continue drives because of the talent Hopkins brings to the field.

Although Hopkins doesn't have electric speed or change-of-direction skills compared to Antonio Brown or Odell Beckham Jr., the Texans wide receiver has a massive catch radius and is a master at finishing plays. That's a beautiful thing to have for Osweiler.

The young speed

Rookie wide receivers Will Fuller (Notre Dame) and Braxton Miller (Ohio State) bring two diverse skill sets to Houston. Fuller has an extra gear. I mean, this guy can fly -- 4.3 speed and above-average route-running skills. With Miller, we are talking about a former quarterback who has sweet footwork, blistering change-of-direction skills, and the 4.4 speed to get on the cushion of a defensive back. He's smooth.

I have a hard time counting on rookie wide receivers to make an immediate impact in the NFL because it is a challenging transition. But think of the space Fuller can create by getting up the field. That opens windows in Cover 3, Cover 2 and quarters for Osweiler to target. It also removes the free safety in man coverage. And yes, there are shot situations to take advantage of. Two per game with Fuller. That's how I look at it. Straight 9 routes. Let it fly. Ask any defensive back how 4.3 speed at wide receiver impacts the game plan. Scary stuff.

With Miller, I see O'Brien thinking outside the box. He'll need time to develop as a receiver, but he can be a matchup problem out of the backfield from day one. Get in space, right? That puts the defense in a tough spot.

Add in Jaelen Strong, who has had a great camp, and veteran Cecil Shorts III, and it's easy to see that the Texans have some legit (while still unproven) talent on offense. This unit is fast and has playmaking ability.

Yes, Osweiler's limited experience makes him a bit of a mystery, but he can be a fit for O'Brien's offense if the team facilitates growth and production within the scheme.

Osweiler has the players around him to win -- now.
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Ottomaton · Aug 12, 2016

J.R. said: ↑

5. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings
6. Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans
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Bobbythegreat faints.

conquistador#11 · Aug 12, 2016

I'd put him 4th behind marioto. The write up suggests brock was a game manager, then what the hell was teddy handoff? Brock avgd 245 ypg and should have only had 5 interceptions He also didn't have anyone 1/4 of adrian peterson in the backfield to bail him out.

Blake is just a classier Jay cutler.

Bobbythegreat · Aug 12, 2016

Ottomaton said: ↑

Bobbythegreat faints.
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LOL, the hype is still pretty strong despite the performances being weak. I imagine this is the year the hype for "Aaron Rodgers 2.0" finally dies.

Bobbythegreat · Aug 12, 2016

On top of that, I was calling for the Texans to draft Derek Carr before he even played his last season in college.....so those rankings aren't bad.

zeeshan2 · Aug 12, 2016

Bobbythegreat said: ↑

On top of that, I was calling for the Texans to draft Derek Carr before he even played his last season in college.....so those rankings aren't bad.
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Taking another Carr would have been a bad look for us but it would have worked out. On top of that, look at all the talent we passed up in the draft for Su'a Filo

Bobbythegreat · Aug 12, 2016

zeeshan2 said: ↑

Taking another Carr would have been a bad look for us but it would have worked out. On top of that, look at all the talent we passed up in the draft for Su'a Filo
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Yeah, he really needs to show something this year but I'm not ready to call him a bust yet, sometimes O linemen take a while to get going. I would have much preferred the Texans went with Carr in the 2nd and I'm almost certain the idea was vetoed by Bob McNair outright. Either way, if Brock pans out, and Su'a Filo shows something this season then they might be better off for it. Time will tell as always.

Mr. Clutch · Aug 12, 2016

zeeshan2 said: ↑

Taking another Carr would have been a bad look for us but it would have worked out. On top of that, look at all the talent we passed up in the draft for Su'a Filo
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And trading three picks for Nix, not to mention three more for Strong

ipaman · Aug 12, 2016

No one can predict that Carr in Houston would have been at least Carr in Oakland. You can't so stop trying and stop with the I told you so's.

Bobbythegreat · Aug 12, 2016

ipaman said: ↑

No one can predict that Carr in Houston would have been at least Carr in Oakland. You can't so stop trying and stop with the I told you so's.
Click to expand...

LOL, okay, so going by that rationale we should never complain about any pick ever since we don't know what might have happened if they were playing elsewhere. Maybe Manziel would have been the next elite QB if the Texans picked him right? You can't say that wouldn't be true. Maybe XSF would be the best O lineman in the NFL right now if picked by a different team....you can't say otherwise.

See how that's kind of a ridiculous line of thinking?

What we know right now is that Derek Carr is looking like the best QB from that class and his only competition is Blake Bortles.

Fulgore · Aug 12, 2016

Top 6 young qbs imo

Carr
Bortles
Teddy B
Winston
Mariota
Brock

J.R. · Aug 12, 2016

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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/08/12/nfl-houston-texans-brock-osweiler-bill-obrien

Mr. Clutch · Aug 12, 2016

Fulgore said: ↑

Top 6 young qbs imo

Carr
Bortles
Teddy B
Winston
Mariota
Brock
Click to expand...

Isn't Brock a bit older? Going into his 5th year vs those guys 2nd?

ipaman · Aug 12, 2016

Bobbythegreat said: ↑

LOL, okay, so going by that rationale we should never complain about any pick ever since we don't know what might have happened if they were playing elsewhere. Maybe Manziel would have been the next elite QB if the Texans picked him right? You can't say that wouldn't be true. Maybe XSF would be the best O lineman in the NFL right now if picked by a different team....you can't say otherwise.

See how that's kind of a ridiculous line of thinking?

What we know right now is that Derek Carr is looking like the best QB from that class and his only competition is Blake Bortles.
Click to expand...

Yea pretty ridiculous to speculate on players you don't have and can't go back in time to get. But if it makes u feel better, by all means.

Fulgore · Aug 12, 2016

Mr. Clutch said: ↑

Isn't Brock a bit older? Going into his 5th year vs those guys 2nd?
Click to expand...

True. I was just going off those 6 names on the list. Hopefully Teddy makes that leap this season

Air Langhi · Aug 12, 2016

ipaman said: ↑

No one can predict that Carr in Houston would have been at least Carr in Oakland. You can't so stop trying and stop with the I told you so's.
Click to expand...

Maybe he would come here and he would have flash backs to when he he saw david and maybe he would have sucked. Who really knows. Its time to move on. It just makes BOB look dumb.

conquistador#11 · Aug 12, 2016

it's funny about that 2014 draft that radio experts, mostly the ones that cough a lot, said "this draft has B.O.B's mark all over it. expect rick smith to be replaced by next season. I have filo graded as the best guard." they're the first ones to turn on these players.

this is the year to see if it all comes together for that class. Clowney is a beast just needs health. Hal can be one of the best safeties in the afc and filo' a major contributor to line that will lead the afc in rushing yards? we shall see. I'm excited.

rhino17 · Aug 12, 2016

Fulgore said: ↑

Top 6 young qbs imo

Carr
Bortles
Teddy B
Winston
Mariota
Brock
Click to expand...

I wouldn't put Bridgewater in that group, the guy is a nobody imo

Bobbythegreat · Aug 12, 2016

rhino17 said: ↑

I wouldn't put Bridgewater in that group, the guy is a nobody imo
Click to expand...

I think after this season, no one will put him in that group anymore, the guy really is a nobody even if he is really good at handing off the ball to AD.

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