Stuff happens from week to week. That said, the Patriots are the team to beat because with a little more luck they'd have the 1 seed wrapped up and only Denver would be able to challenge them as we probably can't come closer than 20 points of them in Foxboro. Heck, didn't the Niners just win up there but get blown out out by the Seahawks this week? It's easy to bump this now but I'd have confidence in the team with home field advantage, even if they aren't the best team.
If you look at their rankings. They've been high on Seattle for quite a while now. The same with Patriots despite their early season struggles, and same with Broncos. OTOH, they also consistently underrated the Texans compared to their record, along with Atlanta and Baltimore. They rated Chicago really high in the season though, so that ended up being a mistake. Overall, their rankings seem to provide a better perspective on future success than wins and losses, which is what a good ranking formula is suppose to be. And if you look at their playoff odds, their predictions reflect this. They have the Texans ranked slightly less likely to make the SB than Denver and NE, presumably for the exact reason you stated. That we (likely) have home field, plus they're likely to duke it out before coming here. But that's different from any sort of "power ranking." I'm bumping this mainly because I think they're doing a good job, more so than your typical "experts" at breaking down games. It's nice to see another view of the team than what we traditionally look at.
Don't forget to bump up all the treads of those people who didn't think the world would end--see we were right! nah, nah, nah, nah ,nah! Some people can't wait to see Houston fail. Never ceases to amaze me. Go ahead and say it, "Houston, we have a problem." Oh, you were saving that for the inevitable post season loss. Sorry to steal your thunder.
