Limit D Mitchell to no more than 46 points while staying close/ guarding others (especially best perimeter shooters) probably gets them to around 88 points. Jazz have top 10 numbers at almost every category on defense except opponent 2PA’s (27th). They overplay/guard the 3 and rim (Once Gobert sits, less rim protection), but are susceptible to mid-range (Harden/CP3/Nene/Faried) and floaters. 27th in steals....not many per game for supposedly a great defense. Rockets have enough offense and defense to get by each game. Even Rivers and Shumpert can get burn time in this series.
We might show on Mitchell on the pick and roll, which would leave Favors/Gobert to roll momentarily but our help rotations have been excellent recently. Force the big man to make the extra pass on the short roll or try to go through Tucker. That would leave an open shooter but they usually have a non shooter on the court free to leave. Ingles and Korver play only about 10 mins per game together, and not at all when it's Favors and Gobert at the 4/5.
Ther focus is on our defense because the whole world knows what we're doing offensively. They are a lot better offense this year. They have the PnR working. I think the obvious defensive scheme is to deny Mitchell to begin with. Force Rubio to the top, and don't switch PnR action. That's where I'd begin and see how it worked. Make Rubio beat me with either the jumper or off the dribble. Rubio is smart. He won't settle very often. He'll drive. And then it's a matter of seeing how the individuals call it. I do not think it is good to switch Rubio. Because he's too good picking up the roller. I agree with vol on Mitchell. Make Mitchell shoot the jumper to prove he's going to hit it.. .. if we can't deny him the ball. Don't switch unless he's hot. Gobert's hands are much improved. Depending on him fumbling on the catch is stupid. I don't think Capela will be able to handle him this year. I've watched him play and progress. And I've watched Capela regress defensively. I think they're double big lineup with Gobert/ Favors will give us trouble. Partly because they've gotten better at running PnR, Favors has been healthier up to this point (but he is dinged right now), and because we do not have length and shooting in the form of Ariza/Luc to deal effectively with their size defensively and then force them to defend shooters on their defensive end. When you look at their double big lineup and you realize what's on our roster, the best defensive matchups are probably CC/Nene. But that's not what we're going to do because of spacing. The most logical combo is CC/Faried. And that will be interesting. My general feeling right now is that the lineup that we dominated last year, double big, is going to be a lot tougher for us this year. We don't have those shooting 4/5's we had last year that were plus defenders. I think we win this series. Based mostly on the health of both teams. Utah has more nagging injuries than we do.
I interpreted this thread as a prediction thread, given the title, not an opinion thread. Are you predicted we won’t switch PnR? There is a right and wrong answer to the thread title, if this is a prediction thread. Whether one scheme works or not, we will see what we play in Game 1. If your call for no switching is a prediction, I’ll make a prediction, too, with a detailed analysis of how exactly we will play. But if this is a free-for-all opinion thread of what you think we should do, I’ll pass.
We don’t run Switch Everything, so your answer “we’ll have to Switch Up Switch everything” is neither a prediction of what we’ll actually do, nor very clear. The only thing clear about that statement is it’s an opinion. Do you want to make a prediction with me, in the spirit of the thread title and OP? Maybe this is a simple question: Will we defend them the same as we have in past? Do you agree, or do you predict MDA/Bzdelik will already make adjustments? If you want me to describe how we play Utah for you, I will (I’ll describe Feb 2nd). Here’s a sample: Utah is not very good at executing the timing and spacing of PnRs very well, so we switch except when they do a poor slip that is too early and telegraphed. This isn’t zone. We can stay on our man, when we see an ineffective/fake pick. I can explain exactly when we do and don’t switch, but don’t want to put forth the effort if you don’t want to make a prediction. That is a taste of our Catch/Tag, Switch Anything, principles.
Yup everyone needs to step up. All the excitement about getting GSW in the second round will mean nothing if Chris has to do it all to get us past the Jazz and gets worn out/injured in the process.
Yes. I don't want to underestimate our competitor no matter who they are. But I think people here are slightly overrating the Jazz's post ASB record. Easiest SOS, I would have anticipated that they'd do well.
We can't defend them the same as last year. Ariza is gone and has not been replaced. I clearly stated I think we will have trouble defending their double big lineup this year because they are better and we don't have Ariza/Luc. I think we will drop the big and live with their 3-balls. I also clearly stated I think we will outlast them because they have health issues. I'm not willing to be more clear than that. I've got a lot of question marks about this series. Hence the thread And I'm actually concerned that we could get upset here. Read my post above. And quit TROLLING....
OK, so you are predicting we will not switch PnR? It reads like an opinion of what we should do. If you think I'm trolling, rather than wanting to talk basketball with you, then I'll bow out. I didn't think asking you to make a prediction in the spirit of the Thread Title was so hard. If you think Bzdelik will change our Utah game plan in Game 1, I don't think he will. To me, predicting the game plan is funner conversation than "oughta, shoulda" talk. I can get that in many other threads. I'll provide detail of the defensive game plan that I predict, if you want to play along with the Thread Title. All I ask for is a concrete prediction of will we make adjustments prior to Game 1, or stick to the game plan of Feb 2nd and last playoffs.
Nowhere did I say we would not switch the pick-and-roll. What I said is I would start out attempting to deny Mitchell the basketball. And I'd make Rubio shoot over the top by dropping the big. That's what I'd do if I was Bzd. I think it makes the most sense. I think we are in trouble trying to hold their bigs down if Favors is healthy.....contrary to last year. Their PnR is NOT the same as last year. They do it more. And they get indirectly into it with secondary action. That's how they're dealing with Rubio's poor shooting. Which is very smart. They're running PnR with him when the ball is funneled to him when and after Mitchell is denied. Last year they were leaving him hung out to dry with the shot clock winding down. And it was helter skelter play after the initial defensive denial. This year, they are very clearly bringing out a big on secondary action, setting the pick, even from the wing, and running PnR with Rubio. It is a problem. And has made their double big lineup much better.
I predict we will do the same game plan of Feb 2nd, which overall demonstrated (although without Paul/Capela) that we don't make significant adjustments to Utah. We like what we already do. We will heavily switch PnRs, but it gets complicated because they run Horns, too, (we don't like to switch flairs) and their PnR execution on slips is often poor. (They love to slip picks.) We communicate on defense in such a way that we don't have to switch every slip, if it's too early and telegraphed. (that is, Catch/Switching Anything is not a match-up zone, so we can follow a bad slip.) That also leads to blunders too, though, which makes it look like a trap, but the two defenders miscommunicated and both stuck with the dribbler. So, in detail, here's my prediction, which is my best effort at describing the Game Plans demonstrated to date: We will switch PnRs heavily. Our game plan is to switch Mitchell, Ingles, Rubio, Crowder, independent of who the picker is. In Game 1, we will not double/trap Mitchell out front, nor do a hedge/recover by Bigs. We do not fear him with the ball. (Maybe that's a bold prediction, as we could do it by surprise late in the game, but we just don't do it as principle, so that's my prediction.) And I'll be absolutely shocked, if we don't always switch Rubio (barring Principle #4 below). However, we have shown that we will follow Korver, if he's the dribbler. I guess the book out on Korver is he's too slow, so you can chase over the pick. We will switch all off-ball motion towards the ball, especially to Catch Ingles, Korver. We don't like to switch flairs though, going away from ball, so will chase those. Sometimes the off-ball motion is lazy, and we just follow through, if unimpeded. (Switch Anything.) Likewise, on early/telegrpahed bad slips, we are allowed to communicate and call off the switch. Look for situations where the pick wasn't going to bother the primary defender, and thus ineffective. This will be independent of who the roller/slip man is, but rather how well they execute it. Utah is not very good/consistent with how effective they slip. #4 is one of the primary reasons Utah turns the ball over so much against us. They are not very good at PnRs. We like to out-think them and aggressively call off switching on bad slips. Also, they screw up the spacing between the roller and dribbler too, ending up too tight. Utah runs Horns a lot, which is two pickers, starting at the elbows. The first one loves to slip and flair for a 3. Our primary plan is to chase early flairs (which still allows a switch on the dribbler via 2nd pick)...but we will switch all Horns picks too (maintaining a wall), when Utah executes it much more tightly. Rule of thumb is Rockets Catch all movement towards the ball, but will Chase flairs away from ball. We will switch Spain, too. But they don't do it much,,,look for Korver to partake in Spain PnR. We also play Tag defense, especially for Chris Paul. Tag means Paul will switch on a big, but a back defender will immediately attempt to Tag him out and Catch the big for him. Whenever caught in a mismatch Post due to a switch, and a Tag wasn't available (or Harden is the defender--which we don't consider a mismatch), the Rockets will then Trap the Box. We will turn the Post man baseline, and double with the 2.9er. We will have blunders with our advanced, elite communication on Catch, Switch Anything (not everything) priniciples, but it works great on Utah and GSW (hence all the turnovers, and lack of scoring from layups by cutters), so in Game 1, my predictions is we will make no adjustments.
