is one week away. Format is American like, held every 4 years, except turnouts have historically been much higher than America's. (Taiwanese care about them politics, just Youtube search "Taiwan legislature" if you aren't sure.) A discussion thread is warranted because it's going to be very close, and the last time it was close, a "failed assassination attempt" took place a day before the election to help the attacked win. 3 candidates: 1. Ma - incumbent, Harvard alum. Pan-Blue (wants status quo = maintaining Taiwan's ambiguous political status as "Republic of China") 2. Tsai - main challenger, Cornell alum. Pan-Green (pro-independence) 3. Soong - 3rd party candidate, Georgetown alum. Pan-Blue (pro-reunification with China) Polls show Ma and Tsai are neck and neck. Soong has about 10% of the support in polls, and people voting for him would be helping Tsai. Obama wants Ma to win because that's whom China wants.
1 day away, the latest Knife-Wielding Woman Storms Taiwan Campaign Office http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204542404577157971211945392.html?mod=googlenews_wsj Gun Scare Jolts Taiwan Campaign http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204124204577152591168443450.html
Ma vs. Obama Both alumni of Harvard Law School Both born outside "Main" territory (Ma in Hong Kong; Obama in Hawaii) Both minorities (Ma - "Mainlander"; Obama - black) 2004 both elected to presidency with large margin 2008 ???
I think Ma won because most people in Taiwan realize that without a friendly China, Taiwan is not going to do well. I like watching Taiwan variety shows (guilty pleasure) and the tone of pop culture towards China as changed a lot since 1995.
Ma's reelection shows that union with the PRC is inevitable. The margin of victory showed a clear majority of the people of Taiwan want to move closer to the PRC rather than outright independence. Its only a matter of what sort of terms will Taiwan and the PRC agree to eventually.
Just curious but have you heard of anything specific that there was massive corruption in this election?
Those are the terms that the PRC has been offering already but I still don't think those will be enough for Taiwan anytime soon. While I think this election shows that unification is inevitable how fast it happens depends on how much autonomy the PRC offers and also how much political reform happens in the PRC itself. I don't think Taiwan would accept the agreement that Hong Kong has where the PRC still has final say over leadership. I can't see even Ma supporters accepting the Beijing picking the leadership of Taiwan.
Taiwan won't like it, but Taiwan has no leverage. In 10, 20 years when we don't back Taiwan, China will force their hand.
