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Super Tuesday Predictions

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by Major, Feb 26, 2020.

  1. ipaman

    ipaman Contributing Member

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    I just did. I'm waiting to find out what Biden has done for them to win their vote because I can't find it.
     
  2. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    Well if that's actually your thing, too bad you threw your vote away on Bernie, maybe you could have spent some time perusing the comically-long plans page (I counted 83 different initiatives) of the candidate whose slogan was "I have a plan for that!"

    https://elizabethwarren.com/plans
     
  3. Mr.Scarface

    Mr.Scarface Member

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    From a black man in his 40s, who has a white LIBERAL wife. She voted for Warren. I voted for Warren. Bernie is a FRAUD. Promises a bunch BS that had NO CHANCE of becoming law. He is NOT a democrat and was an opportunist. If he wanted to run for President, run as an Independent (of course he knows he has no shot doing that). I don't trust him for ****. I'm not a big fan of Biden, but I know who he is. He has been willing to evolve and I know he can be Trump because of his background. I like Warren's economic message (especially the college debt). I think should would a GREAT VP.

    Biden has changed, especially since becoming Obama's VP.
     
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  4. Mr.Scarface

    Mr.Scarface Member

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    A bunch of white men deciding things. It is going to look "evil" when there is no diversity. Society changes. The question is, do you change with it?
     
  5. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    Well if you voted for Warren you did the exact same thing in terms of throwing away your vote. Man, anybody can have a website with a long list of plans, all people running have them. Just because she has a big list, isnt enough. I donno, I'll take a look at this though, thank you.
     
  6. thegary

    thegary Contributing Member

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    if it helps bring bernie's people over then maybe she would be a good VP choice...
    however, and maybe i'm a giant homer, i would love to see beto as The one
     
  7. HP3

    HP3 Member

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    The dude who has been fighting for people's rights for 40 years and has remained consistent through all of that, is a fraud now?
     
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  8. ipaman

    ipaman Contributing Member

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    I'm not white which means I'm "black" and I was raised by a single mother. I never had to change. I've supported all people's rights and liberties since I can remember.
     
  9. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Older black voters went huge for Biden. Not younger ones. And other minorities, who are equally impacted by "what white people will vote for", were heavier for Bernie.

    Nevermind that the numbers prove out that it's not just minorities that have getting Trump out of office as their #1 priority. That is also true for plenty / a majority of white people.

    Nevermind the further fact that if black people came out in numbers to vote they wouldn't have to worry about "what white people will vote for" as much. Cause the years when black voter turnout participation was high (percentage wise on par with non-hispanic white) was 2008, 2010 and 2012 ... and Obama was elected. Started dropping again by the 14 mid-terms, at which point Obama obviously couldn't run again.

    Meaning IF their candidate was Bernie, the argument that their picking Biden just to "be pragmatic" because they have to "deal with what white people will vote for" is a to me a low information argument.... when they could vote for your beliefs / info, focus on increasing black voter turnout and then, on top of the fact that many other candidates polled as favorably or better against Trump as Biden did, your choice if it was Bernie would be pragmatic anyway.

    Again, this is a guy who is solidly in second place, and only in second to a guy that is part of the DNC same old same old machine is even then only barely in first because the SC primary happened before Super Tuesday.

    And even then... I keep getting replied to that the black folks that have voted for Biden are doing so to be pragmatic, not because Biden has build a better coalition... ???

    I don't think the fact that he has a troll army supporting him says much of anything about coalition building.
     
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  10. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    super fair, and interesting argument. Certainly don't know the answer!

    But relative to the pushback that southern, elderly, black voters were just being pragmatic... i kind of take that as low info personally. Cause none of the info before last week painted Bernie as any less likely to win than Biden, imo. Frankly, Biden didn't seem like a great candidate against Trump, and still really doesn't, other than being a candidate against Trump. Eg. they've all polled very highly likely to beat Trump.. of course that's just polling.
     
  11. dmoneybangbang

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    Um... yes it’s very possible. Bernie could have easily “out populist” Obama on the heels of the financial crisis and the Iraq/Afghan wars in 2008.

    That’s fine if you disagree. I certainly think a socialist would have trouble winning during anytime that there wasn’t a severe economic crisis ( which 2008 was).
     
  12. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    it absolutely does. Bernie is running to be the leader of the Democratic establishment, not to burn it down and destroy it. You can't run an insurgent cmapagin when you're an established figure whose main task is to establish his base.

    To do so, he needs to be on good terms with Democrats, both influential ones and the voters.

    This doens't happen when you unleash your online mob or publicly fume about how corrupt everybody who doesn't vote for you is.
     
  13. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    There was a lot of information on this.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/02/bernie-sanders-trump-poll-socialist.html

    just last week:

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...sanders-electability-president-moderates-data

    And it more or less aligned with the gut of the allegedly low info voters - getting people to vote for a cantankerous old Socialist is still really hard!

    If anything, last night's result of Bernie failing to activate new voters confirms it.
     
  14. dmoneybangbang

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    In the context of his grandiose policies that are light on details? Yes.
     
  15. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Yes, this was Biden's plan all along!! From the get-go he knew he would be ho hum to SC, which he would dominate, then everyone else would drop out, and he'd save his campaign in a matter of days!!

    Lol. I don't doubt that he's a great "politician". And I don't doubt that after the first states that he HAD to hinge his entire campaign on this strategy. That's how DC works.

    But I don't think that because its played out this way, or because Bernie is still around 30% with an anti-establishment agenda speaks a ton to "coalition building".
     
  16. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Agreed, I still worry about Biden going toe-to-toe with Trump. But, I really don't think you can guess the future. You can try to play the percentages, but people sound way too confident about their opinions on how this or that person will fare. Biden looked like roadkill not that long ago, but he outperformed forecasts in South Carolina and then all the dominoes fell for him. People who prognosticate politics as their profession were caught by surprise. So being well-educated on the politics is great, but it's still really hard to predict the future.
     
  17. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Your first link is to an article subtitled " 'Socialist' is still a problem".

    Hence my entire point on branding relative to info.
     
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  18. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Yes, I agree. And I agree even the polling is hard to decipher. Because all the polling anyway already factors in the fact that the branding machines are well underway.
     
  19. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    Do you think Bernie is done? Even if so, he will have come in second, twice.

    Both times when up against a huge "anti-Bernie" machine ... certainly partly because he hasn't built a coalition with influential democrats... but how is he supposed to build that coalition when part of his entire platform is lambasting the fact that you have to play such a politics game in the first place? I think you're just looking at the "negative" side of his coalition building. Eg. - he's not building a coalition with the influential democrats, so he must not be a good coalition builder, versus the positives of the fact that he's built strong coalitions on the back of an anti-establishment campaign in the first place.

    Relative to grand total voter coalition.... again, he still might come out on top, and if he doesn't it's a close second. From what I've seen, read, etc.

    And again, there's a self perpetuating circle here which is a lot media driven. Andrew Yang was just "conveniently" left off info-graphic after infographic and mistaken for other random Asian people in the press, lol. And he dropped out a month ago... so probably wasn't a great coalition builder either!
     
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  20. pirc1

    pirc1 Contributing Member

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    He did not build the coalition, it is more like the coalition came to him.
     

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