These are always fun: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/democratic_2020_nomination/ I like how Hillary Clinton and Bloomberg (who just dropped out) still have better betting odds than Warren getting the nomination.
Could you give me some reasons why you think Biden's policies are better??? Just because educated women voted for him. Tell me whats better about Joe "I dont remember what i said 2 seconds ago" Biden....he's as conservative as it gets. Cause I've seen his healthcare plan and its not good, people are gonna die under his plan.
I think it is hilarious, that Biden...a guy that democrats BEGGED to get into the race in 2016 (he didn't) as a hero of the democratic party and a party to Obama's fairly liberal ideologies is now "as conservative as it gets". The moving target of so many Democrats going so far left is extraordinary. I also think it is telling that the "centrist" block (Biden and Bloomberg) of voters yesterday absolutely CRUSHED the "liberal" block of voters (Sanders and Warren).
My "thesis?" is simple. A majority of voters are low information voters. Not low IQ. Not low education. But low information. As such, they have been more concerned about electability than anything else.... that anything else being... well, information. I believe there is data on this. Broadly speaking, electability has been heavily branded by mainstream media and social media as conservatives/Biden being much more electable and winnable against Trump, then the progressives. This has been plastered all over media for months. Despite the fact that polling never really said that. Simultaneously, it seems from exit polling, a majority of states/people voting made up their mind in the last few days - eg. after the DNC coalesced around Biden. And why did the DNC coalesce around Biden? Because Biden won South Carolina. And why did Biden win South Carolina? Because older blacks skew VERY heavily towards Biden. This is true of older people in general. And btw, South Carolina skews older, it's one of the top 15 oldest median ages in the country. Had say, Colorado gone last week, and South Carolina been a part of super tuesday, the DNC would not have coalesced around Biden. I suspect Mayor Pete would have had a solid showing. Even without him, Biden came in second in Colorado, but just barely above Bloomberg (who's campaign was kind of toast by yesterday). So it's not hard to envision a scenario where Pete and Amy stay in, or where there is more coalescing done around Pete (or Bloomberg, as his heavy ad spend in Colorado might have had him as the top moderate)... meanwhile Biden would have gone another primary without a win and potentially/probably running on fumes at that point... in a way not viable. If I put this all together, I see voters that care first and foremost by a wide margin to remove Trump, bought into the socialist/progressive branding of the more progressive candidates, waited until the DNC coalesced around somebody, that somebody being Biden simply by virtue of scheduling, and voted that way. The idea that one campaign - Bernie (but could be Warren or whomever) might be uneducated in the basic concept of coalition building, seemingly implying another campaign - Biden, who was the big winner last night, is educated in the concept of coalition building is funny to me... the reason Biden was the big winner last night came down to timing of the SC primary being before super Tuesday, not coalition building.
Oh really?? The candidate the dnc shoved down your throat is winning? Wow that IS so telling! Worked so well last time with President Shillary huh?
Victims of media narrative: Bernie Sanders And Houston Rockets The thing is... everyone knows there is a high % of white voters in Iowa and a high % of black voters in S.C. and everyone know the primaries dates in each state, and all the campaigns had the chance to strategize around the demographic facts. Complaining about the outsized impact of S.C. or any other state is like complaining about shots beyond an arbitrary arc being worth 3 points.
I know super liberals are enamored by Bernie and his socialist ideas, but he's not going to win, and people overestimate how many super libs exist due to the social media echo chambers. 4 years ago, Democrats were BEGGING Biden to run instead of "Shillery" as you put it. Hillary was off putting to everyone, but Biden would have trounced both 4 years ago. What a different time makes.
Bernie's policies are a SOCIALIST's dream. Problem is, the US can't pay for it all. If he would focus on a public option for Obamacare and student loan debt....it would be better for him.
Biden, with his flaws, is ALWAYS thought to be a honest, decent human being. Can't say the same for Trump. Biden is Blue Collar. He is not super Rich, he took the trains to Washington. He appeals to the white, working class voter (Trump's base). All he has to do is eat away a little at that base. The Democrats will back him.
The real problem is that America dislikes the label “socialist” but likes public education, public infrastructure, Medicare, etc As someone astutely said on another thread, Dems keep losing the messaging battle.
The public option is more expensive then M4A, while leaving millions uninsured. Why would it makes sense for Bernie, or any candidate to support that?
To tell you they will cover everyone and then do nothing about it...which, works for them I guess. Biden's going to say he's going to extend Obamacare and improve it and Trump is going to say "And what has Obamacare done for you?" even as Trump and the GOP tried to cripple it. The only hope I have for this election if Biden wins is that people just hate Trump on a personal level enough because as you mentioned...the Democrats are really poor at messaging.
The best explanation for why black voters went huge for Biden is here - they've had to deal with what white people will vote for their whole lives and they don't trust them to vote for Bernie https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/biden-black-vote/ Hmm... Maybe using a troll army to attack Warren's supporters as "snakes" was not a good move? Maybe trending #NeverWarren is not a way of building detente? There are dozens of "us against the world!" tweets out there from Bernie's top lieutenants out there as well, from the last few weeks and espeically last night. That is not how you do coalition building.
Your being way too kind. Trump said everyone would be covered, and then turned around and fought as hard as he could to kick 20+ million off of ACA. So far 7 million Americans have lost their healthcare under Trump. They have a plan, they want to scrap ACA and replace it with nothing.
I didn't take it that way. But I question how important being informed actually is. We talk about policy nuance here often enough, but with a suspension of disbelief because we know with a Republican-controlled Senate the comparative strengths of public option vs single payer is moot anyway. What each candidate supports is a signal of which direction he'll push but not what he'll get. What we're left with is some very distinct brand promises: do you want the racist autocrat, a return to normalcy, or a hard bank toward egalitarianism? It actually doesn't take a lot of information to look at your own values and your position in society and pick one of those 3. It might be that high information is overkill. Forgetting the political tags for a second and thinking of 'conservative' in the more everyday definition of being cautious about change, Biden is easily the most conservative option in this race. Trump is a radical in identity politics and Sanders is a radical for egalitarianism. They both want to take the country in new directions, even kicking and screaming the whole way. Biden will do stuff, but in the direction we've been heading in all along.
