I don't agree. The deferring team controls their own destiny, gets the extra down if necessary and can go for two (and the win) if Mahomes is the opposing QB.
Actually that's why if you score TD first your team should always go for 2pt conversion as a preventive measure. The fact that the team with second possession will always go for 2pt conversion is why you yourself would want to do it on first possession.
2pt is about 50-50. The odds of you getting it and them failing are about 25% (50% x 50%). The odds of you failing and them making an extra point are 50% (50% x 100%). The absolute worst decision you could make is going for a pre-emptive 2 point conversion.
I tend to agree. That option to go for 2 and the knowledge that you have to go for it on 4th is enough to offset the advantage of having the next possession with a chance to win.
Disagree. KC had scored 1 TD the whole game, and that was on a muffed punt. If both teams get FGs on the 1st possession, the team that took the ball first has a huge advantage. All of the analysis of this decision only works because KC scored a TD. Notice neither Mahomes or anyone on KC had talked about going for a TD if they were at 4th down in FG range - and that's where the huge advantage for the 49ers comes into play. Also, several people have referred to deferring - just to clarify, the choice is between receiving and kicking off. There's no scenario of deferring here (which is just picking what you want in the 2nd half - so you do that at the beginning of the 1st half). If 49ers were to defer in OT, it means KC would just get to pick whether they wanted to kick or receive. I guess if it went into triple OT, the 49ers would then get the option to kick or receive again.
Only the team with the first possession controls their own destiny. They can score a TD, get a 2 pt conversion (nothing says they have to kick an XP), and then either win it on the other team's possession or their own next possession. If SF had kicked off, this could have been the outcome: KC scores TD KC gets 2 SF scores TD SF gets 2 KC scores again to win And there's nothing SF would have been able to do about it. The analytic math will be worked out over time, but I'm 99% sure it will show at least a small advantage to the team who gets the ball first. You get every option the other team gets plus more.
Your math is flawed in that you are assuming 100% chance the opposing team scores that matching TD. In the scenario I proposed, you already scored that TD and you only need to decide PAT vs 2 conv. Thus from that POV, your chance of scoring a TD is "100%" because you already scored it! This isn't the case for the other team that has yet to score that TD! IOW, you are assuming that if you score a TD and go for 2pt conversion, the other team will score a TD with 100% certainly regardless of whether you go for PAT or go for 2 pt conv. Let's say the chance of the other team scoring a matching TD is 20%. That means that you have an 80% chance of winning even if you try for 2pt conv and fail.
So much this. They got completely worn out. That's why I don't find the debate over the overtime coin flip too interesting. If the Chiefs got that OT kickoff, they would have scored their touchdown much faster (IMHO).
In SF's case with the game going the way it was, I think the better call would have been to defer. Since SF received first, they had to get a TD. Giving Mahomes 4 downs to get in FG range is almost guaranteed. It's a situational call on who your opponent is and how the game is going. Both teams struggled to get TDs. FGs were manageable. SF had a better chance to hold KC to a FG with 3 downs. But hindsight is everything. Can't blame SF's logic to want the first possible sudden death possession. The new rules offer more scenarios at least than an opening TD ending the game.
[Also posted this in the other thread] This 49ers reporter (the best one IMO), has some insights on possibly why they decided to go on offense first in OT.
If the other team doesn't score a TD, it doesn't matter that you went for 2 or kicked the extra point. That is why I'm not taking that into consideration. It is is irrelevant to the discussion of going for 2.
If SF held KC on 3 downs, they would have kicked a FG to tie the game - depending on the down and distance. That was never an issue in this game.
I'm saying if SF elected to kickoff and let KC receive first, they had a good chance to hold KC to a FG since KC would likely stay within 3 down territory. Giving Mahomes 4 downs in a do-or-die scenario is too dangerous.
Right - but what I'm saying is that if KC was in FG range whether on their 1st or 2nd possession, they'd still have likely kicked the FG. The 4th down only comes into play outside of FG range or in a 4th-and-short scenario where they potentially go for it regardless of which possession it was.
Mahomes has too much history of scoring what is needed when it's time to close a game out. For comparison, Jordan could be 0-20 but you don't want him taking the last shot. You don't want Mahomes to have the ball last with a chance to win. Especially not with an extra down. KC was also moving the ball well on their last possessions and the clock running out in regulation is what really held them to a FG there IMO.
It’s not nonsense. If you get the ball first and have a 4th down in bad field position you likely won’t go for it and give the other team great field position when they would only need a FG to beat you. That can impact how you call 3rd down plays. When you get the ball second it’s more likely that you will use the extra down, like KC did.
That's a choice, not a requirement. You don't think KC would have gone for that 4th and 1 if they had the ball first? Of course they would have. As would SF if they were in that situation. No way they are giving the ball to SF only needing a FG to win the game.
Again, the fumbled punt gift wrapped the game for KC just like the fumble on the goal line by the Ravens. Mistakes matter.
Maybe not. Let's say KC received first and their driven happens as it did. If KC fails to convert 4th and 1 from their 34, it will gift wrap a FG to SF and end the game. More than 4th and 3 is a definite no to me. Analytics say 4th and 1 is better to go for it, but there's too much at stake. Lions followed it and came up short twice.
