Strategic Advantages of Acquiring Paul Millsap Mid-Season

As JayZ750 mentions, one thing about Millsap is that he's been underpaid so far in his career for his talent level. He is not poor or anything, but not one of these guys who is likely to leave his last chance at scoring a big deal on the table.

So, I wonder if Al Jefferson is someone we might target. Don't liken his game as much but would McHale be able to convince his former protege to give us a homeboy discount? Also, he could be on a Zach Randolph career path-- elite post scorer/rebounder rounding out his game/BBall IQ later in life.

Back to Millsap trade: I agree with the earlier post that the correct play is to submit a lowball offer and see if Utah accepts near the deadline.

 

One thing that I think has gone unnoticed is that it's actually a lot riskier to trade for a player before the deadline than it ever is to investigate signing that same player in the off-season.

They're still under contract with another team, so the league explicitly forbids that kind of tampering and collusion (unless you're the Miami Heat, evidently). These players can't be approached. They can't be talked to. They might as well not exist, as far as other teams are concerned. So that means other GMs have only a player's body of work with another team to go on when evaluating that player's fit. And that can be tough. Sometimes a player's game really doesn't translate well to another team. This is how bad trades happen.

In the off-season, it's a whole different story. These guys' schedules are always full. GMs can SEE them in workouts, they can sit down with these players and their representation, get a real feel for whether they'll work out for their teams. They can take them to dinner and try to give them that smooth move iPad treatment. :grin: They can even do what Phoenix did while trying to woo Eric Gordon last off-season, when Gordon was a *restricted* free agent, nevermind an unrestricted one:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/ExJ4qqrJd-c" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

(The Hornets were not amused that Phoenix was making such a hard play for one of their best talents.)

Basically, it is much less risky to sign these guys after getting a long look at them and actually seeing them play with your own guys than it ever is to forfeit multiple rotation players to force that to happen so you can get your look a little earlier than everybody else. In fact, the players who most frequently get traded for as unrestricted free agents in those scenarios are star players whose impact is considered more than worth the risk of losing them and the assets used to acquire them. Deron Williams and Dwight Howard come to mind. I lost track, is Paul Millsap a star player? Is he even an Eric Gordon? Then why are we having this discussion?

 

ughh.. this is cumbersome, because of your stubborness... DM is about flexibility. Acquiring Millsap in season adds flexiblity. It allows HIM to decide with much better degree of confidence whether or not he wants to resign him and provides greater cap space flexibility..

i don't even know what you're saying...

Exchanging Patterson/Morris for Millsap can take the Rockets from a 6/7 seed to a 4/5 seed. I believe it. If you don't, fine... you don't think he's that much of an improvement.

I know what Dwight wants to the same degree of certainty as you do... which is a best guess.

I find it highly unlikely he'll leave $20+ million on the table... BUT, you never know. Dwight's a strange cat. This article sums it up nicely:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-b...-leave-lakers-free-agency-204526893--nba.html

I know DM, who's had a hard-on for Dwight, would like to have the ability to chase him if he can. Moreover, whereas the Mavs or Hawks might have made more sense competitively when last offseason started, from a competitive and fit standpoint, is there a better fit right now then the Rockets? Young team, on the up, with a ton of talent.

If the Rockets could get Howard, would Les then be willing to go way into luxury tax land to use bird rights on Milsap... I don't know..

...FLEXIBLITY

you can keep saying it... doesn't make it true. I'd rather have the knowledge of how Milsap would fit, the improved team for this year, and Millsap's bird rights than Patterson/Morris.

if you disagree, fine.

I am not concerned about fighting with Utah for #8 seeds. if you are.. GREAT!! I'm not.

Again, please provide historical examples that are analogous. You claim its easy, so provide some examples.

Finally, a somewhat logical argument. You don't think Milsap is a huge upgrade. Got it.

But they've saved cap space. Which you say DM can just snap his fingers and do, but I disagree. The Rockets also do get his bird rights. It doesn't make him restricted, but they are rights.

I don't care about the Jazz. You do. Got it. I care about the Rockets making smart trades positioning themselves ultimately for a championship.

I might not want to sign Millsap at that point. Or I might want to sign him.

Do you know what the word might means?

I'd sure have a better view of whether I do or don't want to sign him and for how much at that point.

uh... i answered it? You even quote my answer in your response. His value would go up... A BIT! I threw out numbers... if you don't like them or agree with them, fine. No need to be purposefully obtuse. The point of the numbers clearly was to show his value would go up... A BIT!

which is fine. you simultaneously think he won't help us that much but he may also play so well it'll price us out of being able to afford him... kind of contradictory but whatever.

I don't have that concern. I believe he'll either get overpaid meaningfully by some team - in which case the Rockets don't sign him, or he won't, and the Rockets would have the inside track

You seem to understand my position, but then get confused by it. I am not sure he'll work out. You've stated it. You got it bud!

You're worried about losing Patterson/Morris for nothing. Got it. I could care less. Those guys are below average players that don't help you win and who are burdening you with $4.5 million of cap space. I don't care if they're gone and Milsap is gone.

Great, you don't like tankers.... got it. You're a better fan than me! /rolleyes.

nevermind the owner of this site was a tanker as well...

... please don't respond to this... i'm scared you'll show you're much wiser than me again!!

 

I haven't read through all 16 pages, so I'm not sure if this point has already been addressed. But if not, perhaps I can shed some light on this falsehood. You are wrong because you are one year too late. The sign and trade rules from last year no longer apply.

This "important fact" is left out because it's absolute WRONG, you cannot sign and trade Millsap to the Lakers or Wolves. It's not allowed by the CBA in the case of the Lakers, and it doesn't make sense for either Millsap or the Wolves since they get no benefit out of it when they can just sign him directly.

Starting next off-season, sign-and-trade contracts may not offer bird right raises or contract years. That means Millsap gains no advantage from doing a sign-and-trade instead of just signing directly with the team. Last summer was your last chance to do such a sign-and-trade under the old rules. You can't do that now.

Furthermore, the Lakers are not allowed to take Millsap in a sign-and-trade since they are already over the Apron. Sign-and-trades are not allowed if it ends up with the finally team going over the Apron. That means if the team can't sign him outright because it would put them over the Apron (luxury tax + 4M threshold), then they're not allowed to take that person in a sign-and-trade to get around the restriction. They could do it last year with Nash, but that exact same sign-and-trade for Nash would not be allowed this coming summer. Last summer was the last chance to do it under the old rules.

As for the Timberwolves and Love, the Timberwolves are not just under the Apron and Luxury tax, they're will also be under the salary cap this summer. That means they can just sign Millsap directly instead of doing a sign-and-trade. Doing a sign-and-trade not only means Millsap won't get any extra money but that the Timberwolves would need to give up assets for him. Why do that when they can just sign him directly?

This "important fact" you bring up is no longer relevant because the sign-and-trade rules have changed and those sign-and-trades that happened last summer will not be allowed in the coming summer. Sign and trades are vastly weaker as a tool now. No one will really want to do them except in very niche circumstances where the player wants to go to a capped out team and his salary won't put the new team over the apron. Neither the Lakers nor the Timberwolves fit in that category, so neither are candidates for sign-and-trade partners for a Millsap from Houston scenario.

 

You are right, and I sought clarification from that poster on this point earlier this week numerous times because it made no sense.

In fairness, I *think* we ended up on their just using the wrong language to describe what they actually meant: signing the guy...then trading him shortly after that. As opposed to a sign-and-trade, where the whole thing is treated as one integrated transaction. It's a pretty important distinction to make. And even then, signing Millsap, then "flipping" him for a better player couldn't happen until December of this year anyway when his contract would be trade eligible, hardly immediately, but I wasn't going to belabor the point.

For the sake of transparency and making sure posters have the right information, an extend-and-trade to the Rockets for up to three seasons is still possible with Millsap, since his old deal was for 4 seasons. So why don't the Rockets just pursue that? Well, because Millsap would have to agree to it. And it's doubtful he would. Under league rules, he would be entitled to no more than a 4.5% raise over the last season of his expiring deal, which would give him a starting salary of...$8,990,796.46.

The guy is 28 years old. It's going to be the last big payday of his career. Dude undoubtedly wants to see what he's worth in free agency instead of take that. I'd say 10 mil / year? Total guesstimate though, the free agency market itself is what ultimately determines a player's worth.

Still very illuminating though, thanks for posting.

 

Rockets could really use Millsaps rebounding tonight.