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STONE is still the HEDGE HONCHO. Why a FEW MAJOR HITS greatly TRUMPS MANY MISTAKES.

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Medicine N Music, Mar 7, 2024.

  1. Medicine N Music

    Medicine N Music Contributing Member
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    There have been lots of chatter about why Stone should be fired. Stone has made many mistakes, but he has also had a few HUGE WINs, while retaining flexibility for the Rockets going forward. By hedging and maximizing our options, he has greatly expanded our chances at favorable outcomes.

    Will attached previous post regarding Stone (2/9/23) on next post w/ additional discussions that I won't touch on here. This post discusses what has changed since last year, including current evaluations of players.

    Draft Wins

    Sengun
    -Potential to be the best or 2nd best player on a contender. This one grand slam pick will allow any GM to have multiple future mistakes.
    -Gentle reminder - 21 year old averaging 21/9/5 on 54% shooting who can be an offensive hub
    -May already be on par with Sabonis (3 time all-star) and how much better he gets will determine our contender status
    -Most advanced stats point to him being a plus defender, although he has trouble with certain match ups. At minimum, he won’t be a liability the majority of the time. If you replace Jalen w/ Tari, you’ll see a drastic improvement.
    -As I stated last year, best to pair him with a 4/5 shot blocking 3/D player (think Jonathan Issac before injuries, or Chet), which compliments his weaknesses.
    -Sengun will also improve with better 3 point shooters and an elite wing creator (more efficient than Green)
    -If Sengun shoots better from 3 and FTs, while continuing to improve on his conditioning and defense, the sky is the limit

    Jabari
    -Still only 20 years old, younger than Amen
    -Shooting 36% on 3s and improved in almost all areas
    -May not be a star, but likely a very good 3rd or 4th best player on a contender.
    -Difficult to find a 6’11 player to stretch the floor.
    -He will get stronger in a few years and be better defensively

    Tari
    -This is another massive grand slam pick
    -Defensive beast that completely changes the game
    -If he can maintain an adequate 3 point %, he can fit on any team
    -Injuries are troubling, but I hope he can come back to being the same player

    Cam
    -Drafting Cam at #20 is an absolute steal
    -Stone used Eric Gordon + Milwaukee pick (30th) to get #20 from Clippers - Massive win on trade
    -Very likely to be a Corey Maggette type 6th man w/ a 3 point shot, which I think is the perfect role for him
    -For Cam to reach star status, he must improve his court awareness/feel, vision/passing, and better handles.
    -For 20-25th picks, only 6-8% of players become all-stars
    -For the record, I loved this pick. Just difficult to imagine him improving to the point of being a star on a contender, but if he does I’ll be ecstatic.

    Possible Win

    Amen
    -Had reservations about his shooting and still do
    -However, he has potential to be an elite defender/rebounder that has high IQ and may be able to run an offense and has a place on an NBA team even without a shot
    -Impressed by his IQ/court awareness
    -His place on our team determines if he can develop a 3 point shot
    -If Sengun shoots well from 3, Amen will also benefit
    -4th pick still too high for me, but I completely understand the reasoning. If he develops a shot, he is a star.

    Mistakes on Draft Picks

    Stone has missed on several 1st round draft picks, with the most glaring one being Jalen Green at #2. I understood and liked the picks for Tyty, Garuba, and JC, but they just didn’t work out. However, even the best draft evaluator (Sam Presti) has missed his share of 1st round picks in the past 5-6 years.

    Ousmane Dieng (11), Aleksej Pokusevski (17), Trey Mann (18), Terrance Ferguson (21), Darius Bazley (23). Some many even consider Josh Giddey (6) a miss, but I think it’s too early.

    It may not even matter if Sam Presti draft busts for the majority of picks in the next 10 years. When you have so many picks, a superstar like SGA, and 2 potential stars in Chet and Jalen Williams, you can make mistakes and still put out contenders.

    Future Picks

    I outlined previously why I thought the Harden trade was a huge win for us, but got some pushback regarding not taking Jarrett Allen. I won’t engage in this again, but I think most would agree we won the trade by a mile and we’re looking at minimum 1 lottery pick with a chance for more. We have 2 picks and 2 swaps left and these are huge assets for us.

    Free Agency/Coach

    Fred
    -Good starting PG that fits well with Sengun
    -While his FG% is bad, his 3 point % is respectable and he is an elite defender on most nights
    -Likely 3rd/4th best player on a contender for 3-4 years
    -Unfortunately he is 30, but his contract is highly flexible
    -We needed veteran presence in the worst way and getting FVV on a 2 year contract w/ a 3rd year team option was highly favorable and a great hedge

    Brooks
    -Potentially elite defender that sets the tone
    -However, he is mistake prone and often tries hero ball on the offensive side
    -Can be a very good player if he only plays 3/D role
    -Contract is at least average and may be a bargain if he sticks to what he is good at
    -I would count this as either a neutral or positive move

    Ime
    -I think most would agree this was a fantastic hire and I don't need to say much on this one

    Summary
    -Stone has made many mistakes, but he has produced a few massive hits that are franchise altering
    -There are teams that tanked for years that don’t have our core/assets and teams can go 10+ years without getting a player like Sengun
    -We have many young players with potential
    -We have good salary cap flexibility and draft capital flexibility
    -In 3 short years after the Harden trade, we are in an enviable position with a young core, future picks, and good salary cap management.
    -It takes time for young players to improve and to build a contender. Please be patient.
     
    #1 Medicine N Music, Mar 7, 2024
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2024
    zeeshan2, lionaire, roc1951 and 24 others like this.
  2. Medicine N Music

    Medicine N Music Contributing Member
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    Previous post from 2/9/23

     
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  3. studogg

    studogg Contributing Member

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    Love your passion but you are grading through a rockets red colored looking glass.

    None of these picks, to this point, are something that should guarantee a GM’s future.

    Tari now has a serious injury to recover from
    I’m a huge Bari fan but to date he’s too small to bang and inconsistent with his confidence and his shot
    Şengün is a legit stud - but he’s got some serious questions to overcome

    You could also say he’s generally drafted the consensus bpa and hasn’t deviated from the norm

    Ime, is a Tilman hire. Convince me I’m wrong.

    FVV or Brooks don’t come without Ime


    I’m ok with what he’s done as a GM but I’m keeping an eye out for an upgrade
     
  4. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    For me, what happens this coming summer will go far to define Stone's legacy.
    As for his past, its mixed IMO.
     
  5. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member
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    Nice post.

    I think you are vastly underrating the potential of Amen Thompson. I would take him over anyone not named Wemby in a re-draft. His ceiling is incredibly difficult to define, and I think his work ethic and attitude will get him there.

    If I was to keep only two players on the Rockets, it would be Amen and Alperen.

    (I still have a fool's hope for Jalen Green. I think it is starting to click for him)
     
    #5 RudyTBag, Mar 7, 2024
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2024
  6. Hank McDowell

    Hank McDowell Member

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    I have mixed feelings. Overall, it seems like he's in over his head as a GM, but I will concede that he's made some good moves as well. I'm not in a hurry to see him fired, but if he were gone tomorrow it wouldn't disappoint me either.

    I am still having a hard time with the whole Atlanta Hawks Brook Lopez fiasco. A competent GM doesn't let that happen. He looked like a bumbling fool.
     
  7. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Contributing Member

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    Always respect and enjoy @Medicine N Music posts.

    I think the draft evaluations are spot on except for Amen, who I think could be special and has to be put in the “draft wins” category.

    i think MnM makes a good case for Stone but leaves out the culture crash, Silas, the disastrous KPJ experiment, the John Wall, Christian Wood and Olidipo mistakes, and overall poor asset mgmt.

    I think it’s a mixed track record, but believe Stone is a below average GM. I’m rooting for him to make good decisions though.
     
  8. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    I think that any GM can engineer a situation where a team is ok given they are major market and they get to tank for 3 years

    oh and have an mvp to trade .
     
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  9. kubli9

    kubli9 Contributing Member
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    TL;DR

    Stone is garbage. He should be fired.
     
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  10. lpbman

    lpbman Member

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    I don't see how you guys can call Amen Thompson anything one way or the other. I would put his floor somewhere around a Matisse Thybulle, and sky is the limit as to what he could be if he starts shooting well or improves his handle.... but I wouldn't run around popping champagne with that shooting "if" hanging around.

    He's not a bust that is out of the league in two years, that is all I'm sure of.
     
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  11. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    I prefer Sonic.
     
  12. RudyTBag

    RudyTBag Contributing Member
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    Some folks see it and some folks don't, just like Alperen Sengun... :D
     
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  13. kingjosh

    kingjosh Member

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    Any evaluation of Stone should start with the fact that since trading Harden, this fanbase was subjected to three of the most unwatchable basketball seasons in recent memory. Our draft positions, pick equity is built on this foundation.

    We have a promising future now, but did he make the best possible trades? Did he manage our assets in a way that sets us up to compete with OKC, SAS, ORL for the next 10 years?

    The comparison with Morey is not a fair one, but the one thing I will say is that every trade he made felt calculated. It always felt like we were getting significant value back for every trade. I don't feel remotely the same for Stone.
     
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  14. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Morey was a unique innovator and a revolutionary with flaws.

     
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  15. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    Is that the same as grading Presti for all the OKC tanking years (he even shut down SGA and tanked!)

    Not making a comment either way on Stone, but IMHO part of the Harden grade is Jalen Green. Ie, you trade away competitiveness to tank and reap a #2 pick.
    (Also IMHO Green is a dud, so it didn't work out, but c'est la vie)
     
  16. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    How do you know someone is an upgrade if you think nothing they do guarantees them anything?
     
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  17. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    SAS, ORL have been tanking for a lot longer than the Rox.

    You act like 3 yrs is so bad but then give Orlando a pass? You realize they were so bad they drafted Vucevic, watch him be an all star, get washed, and traded him away and they were still badIf you give Stone 11 yrs to be a bad team and collect lotto picks like Orlando has done pretty sure he can make a team as good as Orlando. If you think Jalen Green is a bust what about Joshua Primo? If you think Jabari is bad what about Jeremy Sohan? Lol.


    OKc.... I mean if you can get Presti I'll pack Stone's bag for him. But just cuz Stone sucks compared to Presti doesn't mean Stone has done a bad job, far from it. If you fire Stone doesn't mean you will get Presti here either.
     
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  18. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    I appreciate the effort you put into the post, but just look at San Antonio - it's better to be lucky than "good" at rebuilding.

    Stones mishandling of the KPJ situation is enough to warrant moving on - unlike ping pong balls or guessing which 19 year old will be the best - that disaster is all on him.

    You didn't mention it but that is the biggest failure of his tenure and set the whole franchise back years based on his bad judgement despite numerous warnings
     
  19. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    You can't control the luck factor so not sure why you think that should be an element in decision making.

    How did KPJ set the franchise back years? Maybe you can enlighten me?

    Seems as delusional as you saying Wemby is better than Embiid before Wemby even played a single minute in the NBA.
     
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  20. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Stone is your generic 55 year old GM that has average drive and tentative behaviors......

    He is probably good enough to keep you as a Play In contender for years but you would be disappointed if you want more.

    Udoker will probably have overachieving seasons but Stone alone is not a factor in this.

    Udoka with a better GM = better Playoff results


     

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