Yeah, I can understand that. But buy the dips. I think it's up like 50% in the past couple of years. I always thought of it as a stock to hold damn-near forever and if it dropped, buy more. The only thing I don't like about it is it doesn't throw dividends, and I'm always wary of Chinese companies and their accounting practices. I bought into it because Jack Ma seemed legit back then (but of course he's not running the show anymore), and they were getting to be more Amazon than Amazon in China.
Greed got me today. Was up $700 on Amazon contract, held too long, had to sell at a $200 loss before closing. With decay, would need to be at $2410 to break even Monday, not likely.
Ah man!! Yeah I watch near real time on those, like in heavy option plays I'll literally watch chart almost all day, hint of a pullback and I'm out (I mean major pullback/shift, but depending on the date it can move on pennies, and if it is dipping hard I'll sell below bid assuming it's not crazy amount between the two to get out w/ major profit, since it will guarantee I'm out and adjust up to the bid. I basically refuse to get stuck if it's something I know won't work, especially if it's follow the news/money/volume type play/is expiring very soon. Sure I've been wrong and missed out sometimes but a positive is a lot better. Obviously if it's an option I'm in long-term and feel confident this all changes and I will adjust - but we've all done this. Like for example on Monday if I held my call options I'd have made a lot more on MSFT but I'd rather get back in later if I don't like trend/option is days out etc.. Obviously MS I would have kept normally but I paid a bit more for a basically very sure bet. And figured other news might change things, oh well it happens. Options I love some days, but other days.... Can wreck your account quick. This week I had to avg down on very risky calls, it definitely hurt but prevented it from being completely disastrous on moves today.
Yes. Probably from being stuck at home, but also, after being right and not making planned moves/rethinking things and missing entry/exit it's screwed profits. With that said I'm still doing okay on not pulling a crazy FOMO or something
such are the vicissitudes of stock / options trading, sometimes, analysis pays off been "swing trading" options on this earnings run Mon, 4 May, bto Aug 165 CALL, and sold 160/165 put spread (5-29)Thu, 7 May bto Aug 170 CALL, and sold 172.5/167.5 put spread (5-29) think i got winners here; i'll let them run until 2/3 days before the 2 Jun earnings call
I saw this on a youtube video comment section. Dayummm lol Why stocks will go down much more: 1) 330 Trillion dollars of very poor credit market debt that needs to be deleveraged and the Fed's 1 Trillion farts can't do anything to stop this. Japan has been doing for 30 years what the Fed is trying to do now. Guess what: it won't work when the world has 330 Trillion dollars to deleverage by at least 50%. We're in a deflationary trap and spiral. 2) Corporate share buyback Ponzi model has come to an end as public pension funds (states, municipalities, cities, etc.) have no tax revenues presently to buy corporate bond issuances to fund corporations who use that very money to buy and drive up their own stock to stuff management's pockets with bonuses. 3) 90 cents of every dollar S&P 500 companies earned in the last 5 years also went towards corporate buybacks combined with an unprecedented issuance of corporate debt and equity dilution helping this endless Ponzi scheme. 4) Economy for over a decade barely growing at 1% average despite all the above Endless rounds of QE for 12 years now, interest rates pushed to zero punishing savers and tax cuts that were really not necessary. 5) Consumer debt to income ratio at unsustainable all time high levels (175 debt to income ratio and climbing higher as well as 12 times debt to savings ratio and climbing higher) with real unemployment (unemployed, underemployed and not counted in workforce) at 50% plus and the remaining workforce seeing their hours and salaries cut. 6) All stock market indicators at all time high levels. P/E over 30, Price to Sales Ratio over 2.5, Enterprise Value to EBITDA over 25, Buffet Indicator (Market Cap / GDP) over 135%, Shiller P/E over 27, Q factor (the market value divided by its assets' replacement cost) at 1.76. 7) Bond market has been screaming major recession/depression and deflation for almost a year with yield curve inverting three times and the 30-year T trading almost at 1% (totally crazy). 8) M3 essentially at zero with consumer (70% of economy traditionally and 90% in 2019) tapped out on debt and 50% unemployed/underemployed. 9) Corporations (30% of economy) already in recession since the start of 2019. 10) The corporate bond/debt market in the mother of all bubbles with 90% of bonds trading at one notch above junk status. 11) The IMF has stated that this year, the global economy will experience the worst recession since the great depression. It has also stated that for the first time since the great depression, both advanced economies and emerging markets are in recession with growth in advanced economies at -6.1% with income per capita projected to shrink for over 170 countries. 12) Debt to GDP of all developed countries in the 150-300% range...who would have thought. 13) The stock markets now are comprised of 5 companies representing 25% of the S&P and 40% of the Nasdaq. These percentages are beyond alarming and this never ends well. 14) Healthy stock markets don't go down 35% and swing back up 30% in a matter of a month. This type of volatility always signals lower prices ahead. We're in fact in horrible company...this is the fastest 35% downward move in the stock market. And only two other times the stock markets have gone up 30% this fast: the first leg up of the Great Depression and the first leg up of the Great Recession. We all know what happened afterwards...lower lows over the next year to two years. 15) Bear markets last on average 15 months. We're not even in the second month of this bear market. 16) Retired baby boomers pulling money out of the stock market like no tomorrow, while millennials have no money to invest. 17) For those who are screaming inflation, they are dead wrong. Go study history and study it well: inflation only happens when demand overwhelmingly exceeds supply (which is not even remotely the case, it's actually the total opposite i.e. there is so much supply of everything, we don't even know what to do with it) or when a country prints money over money to serve its debt and has to keep doing that as they can't print fast enough. We have none of those presently as it relates to the USA or the US$. We are a two tiered system comprised of crony capitalism combined with the worst part of socialism. Large corporations are benefiting during the good times and during the bad times when these same companies who should be going bankrupt or getting bought pennies on the dollar by more responsible corporations or getting merged with competitors are getting selectively bailed out by the Federal Reserve who is picking the winners and losers by their size and too big to fail criteria. Crony capitalism on the way up, socialism on the way down. This my friends is a broken corrupt system. The stock markets are now trading in swings like penny stocks with all free market price discovery destroyed and not an ounce of sound monetary policy left. You have a bunch of douchebag academics (who think they know best) not only fighting mother nature but also fighting the principles of economics where boom and bust cycles need to be normal occurrences left to their own devices for productivity to improve over time. But the Federal Reserve doesn't give a hoot about the principle of economics and they have become the real virus infecting the world because they have us play the game with one set of rules yet those rules are constantly broken by them to be the buyer/lender and owner of last resort and implement their grand scheme of becoming the world's central bank and having the entire world as their slaved. If common folks had this behavior, they would end up in jail. And this is a virus we won't be able to get rid of. Who wants to invest in a rigged market where prices are not based one bit on sound economics like reasonable P/E ratios, earnings, free cashflow growth and dividends where earnings are cratering. The very timely Coronavirus is the medium that is exposing the fragility of this corrupt, selfish, self-centered astronomically over indebted over leveraged system.
Damn it!! Why didn't I just have this dude gut check everything, on Monday I'm just going to trade while I listen to the Rocky training montage music, and each time I pause on a buy/sell I'll lift some weights - while the trades might not work I'll at least be in better shape. I think this solved everything!! Thank you so much! I'm ready for Monday! On a side note, I was doing too many left trades and not enough right trades. Man, I needed this sooner, haha
will MSFT take out the previous all-time high of 190.18, established in early Feb 2020 ? i say by 22 May 2020 or earlier.
What's everyone’s thoughts on Nikola? They are going from private and merging with Vtiq supposedly in June. The ticker symbol will go from vtiq to Nkla. From my understanding of things I read they develop hydrogen/electric semi trucks and supposedly have a Nikola Badger truck coming in 2021. 300 miles on electric and another 300 miles on hydrogen for 600 miles. Company's business model seems interesting. Seems more logistic than just selling trucks and semi trucks. Anhauser Busch has preorder 800 trucks. I know it’s gonna be a long term hold, but what’s everyone’s thoughts?
I have a feeling that you're right, I almost bought 187.50-190 calls for 22nd (iirc this was the date) this was when it was further otm during this week so you could get a ton of value, especially w/ length remaining and with it being so low. I might look at these again on Monday and have some further out by a week or two if I can find a good price. I've pretty much switched to trading options more than normal, and just move the contracts. So if I find something I feel good about but am not really confident (so a more risky call/put) I'll just move ahead for profit. Obviously I've lost money selling early for profits but I've also saved a lot w/ how volitale options are. I am going to start keeping better track on the side on some of these options I've played to see how far off I've been from max profit vs max loss etc. Just to see how close I've been. I'm going to try and look at tomorrow but I have a feeling shorts/puts could work well for next week, especially after the Friday we had. Not entirely sure but just thinking about it now, like there were definitely some stocks jumping that should not have been (so not talking about MSFT but like others we saw climb).
Haha, I know! We're screwed! On a side note, I saw a few of these ads but I didn't know that there were this many.
Bought 27.50 weekly (5/15) calls of TOL on Friday. I sold before close, but might get back in Monday if the market is still strong.
I mentioned a while back that this is one of the few gambles I'm taking. I bought a chunk back in March and another chunk when the market tanked some more in April. Anheuser Busch is their biggest deal from what I know. Their commercial big rigs are geared around hydrogen as the fuel, but they're also developing electric as an option, so it's basically a "which do you want because we got it" approach. The pickup truck you just posted above called the Badger was just revealed back in February or March, but they're more about commercial trucking, I think. They've been in multiple lawsuit battles with Tesla over patents. They recently won a lawsuit with the US Patent Office where Tesla argued the Nikola patents should be modified. According to Nikola's CEO, they warned Tesla to change the design before they released their electric big rig, but Tesla refused and released it anyway, so Nikola took them to court. This past Wednesday, Tesla announced they were delaying the release of their big rig until 2021 which probably helps Nikola. Tesla has lined up buyers like Anheuser Busch, Walmart, and other heavy hitters, too. This segment isn't just those two, though. Volvo, Toyota, Daimler, etc. are also entering the commercial trucking space. A couple of months ago, Nikola had stated they had expected over $3 billion in revenue within the next 5 or so years (I forget). They've also shown off an electric JetSki competitor (that looked cool) and an off-road electric vehicle that's probably priced out of the range of normal people. Their biggest thing for now are the commercial trucks. They've been saying that for commercial trucks, hydrogen is the way to go. The pickup you posted was expected to be shown in September, and the semis were supposed to start production sometime next year with production in the thousands not slated until 2021-2023, but I don't know how much the COVID garbage has affected all of their timelines. There's also no guarantee that Nikola will survive, but like I said, this is my complete gamble because it could completely fall apart. lol.
