I obviously can't guarantee this and definitely not financial advice since ETNs like this play pretty hard sometimes, but I think if you bought in a small amount and then avg down (if it dips a bit) with more invested next week or two this should go up, I mean unless there's some really good news but this could setup to be nice, you just have to be really careful about it. Like going into a long weekend for the market we might see like a rally for this to lower and then it goes up decent next week, obviously this can be completely wrong, so just watch it and the news.
Yeah, I think this could be a great play, just have to make sure to watch it - regardless that's an excellent entry you got in at I think. Like I'm thinking this should pay off in a week or two, just be ready to take profits and rebuy/avg down in case, but w/ your entry I think this will pay off.
One quick thing, the only thing to watch out for in short term is all the money the feds are pumping in, I'm worried it could throw things off, but just keep a close eye on it. I still think this play can work out well
Depending how weekend goes (like let's say neutral/positive), probably see a pump Monday and then I'd expect a trend down/more volitale market (so tvix would rise) but really hard to say because of the unknown variables. Like it was a lot easier to predict at the start of this, hell I was so certain I sheltered some of my 401k, I just wish I took it further and shorted or bought inverse funds/notes, I mean initially I planned on this being a short-term thing and being optimistic, but now it's going to run a lot longer. With that said, after the drops/craziness we've seen a lot of things go almost opposite/almost calm of what we would expect but I think w/ reality of the seriousness of virus/world eco and as it continues - I would expect the offsets of the feds money to wear off. But at this point they can just keep pumping it, so you just want to watch how things play out. I think the price point you got in at though is still a good opportunity. I just don't personally like ETNs as much but I know people that have made a lot of money off of them. I feel if bad news/real peak not coming/slower fed money you'll see chances to make money on this. And I feel a lot more easy stating this at this price point vs when it was 400+, like it might dip today and/or Monday but I think it'll go up after (this is hard to bet on though just because of stuff that calms market), but I feel the optimistic news we've seen will wear off as this drags out.
OPEC+ agrees to historic 10 million barrel per day production cut https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/oil-jumps-ahead-of-make-or-break-opec-meeting.html
Market reaction seems lukewarm? I wont be touching uso (underlying or calls) unless it drops to last week's prices again; will stick to selling puts if I have leftover cash for maintenance margin.
I haven't looked into it much, but from what I read, the oversupply in the market is on the order of 15-20 million barrels per day (?). A initial cut of "just" 10 or so million barrels per day won't touch that.
This is an interesting exchange I watched earlier today with Chamath Palihapitiya (former Facebook exec and venture capitalist) :
Yeah, it's a fact. Not an opinion. What I still don't get about America is the large about of low income and middle class people who would disagree with him because they see themselves as future CEO's. Corona is very much a form of natural selection in the real world where we sacrifice the old and sick to save young healthy people in these situations, but in the economic world we keep giving more leverage to the old and sick and inefficient while cutting down the healthy workers. This isn't capitalism and it doesn't help 99% of Americans. Someone better, smarter and more capable will give you a job in the future if we can weed out the weak ones during this economic downturn.
Some of you guys are so obsessed with daily price action that it interferes with your trading. That's why alot of people buy high sell low because they panic sell. The entire equities market is a big joke right now. You have hotels and casinos that are only 25% off their all-time highs while they have no foreseeable revenues. You have tens of millions of people without a job, a shrinking gdp, millions of foreclosures, 1/3rd of people not paying rent you S&P is only 25% off its inflated all-time high. The people will revolt sooner or later because this has to be the biggest disconnect between the stock market and the real economy I've ever seen. The only place where you find value is the commodity market because its not inflated by the Fed. I don't care if Oil goes to 20 bucks a barrel its still the best value in the market right now. Supply will be curbed for a while and these OPEC cuts are permanent until 2022. Supply will not be able to keep up with demand once the world opens back up and I don't believe in this notion that people will be too scared to leave their house once it opens back up. I can bet anyone in this section that oil will be 40 dollars a barrel at some point this year.
Word of the day: Stagflation Key Takeaways Stagflation refers to an economy that is experiencing a simultaneous increase in inflation and stagnation of economic output. Stagflation was first recognized during the 1970's, where many developed economies experienced rapid inflation and high unemployment as a result of an oil shock. Prevailing economic theory at the time could not easily explain how stagflation could occur. Since the 1970's, rising price levels during periods of slow or negative economic growth have become somewhat of the norm rather than an exceptional situation. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp
You’re right. And somehow between Boeing/PLAY/TLRY in the last month and UAL the last few days I’m up a huge%. That’s not even mentioning the smaller gains I’ve made on Coke and ARNC. Im selling UAL Monday and going to force myself to only a few day trades until the inevitable happens soon.
I work at UAL part-time and we were told to expect SINGLE DIGIT load factors for the next coming months. That means if a plane has the capacity of 140 passengers we should expect 14 passengers or less on the plane. Boeing just announced their 737max has more software glitches and this will hamper FAA clearance. Casinos like Penn National and MGM have announced to expect massive shortfalls are selling properties to raise cash yet their stocks are down 20% from all-time highs. Penn national just sold the Tropicana in Vegas for pennies on a dollar because they needed rent relief yet their stock has pumped over 100% form the bottom. Its sickening as someone who truly believes in free markets seeing how this **** show is being manipulated. I've been trading stocks for close to 17 years and I've seen anything like this before. The fed is literally creating feudalism in America. Congress is complicit. This is hard to watch, literally. This doesn't end well for society or Americans. Yes it might go back to normal POSSIBLY but inequality and subjugation will surge even worse There will be a time where people wake up and see how the rich are absolutely ****ing over the middle and lower class. Throw the middle class a 1200 dollar check while the corporations are having their junk bonds being bought up by the billions by the Feds. The same junk bonds that they used to inflate their stocks for years and years. The only people that are suffering are the average American. The gap between the top 1% and the rest of us will grow to astronomical proportions this time around.
The market makes zero sense. How is DIN, UAL, PLAY, Cruise line all up today? Didn’t realize we were all out and about traveling and eating out. I told myself I would stay out of the market for a few days and of course I went and bought USO. It’s cheap for 5 bucks a share. I was hoping for a bounce after OPEC deal. will hold it till I make some gains.
How can you spend time investing in stocks and not get this? People are buying these based on value. They are betting they don't go bankrupt (will keep raising liquid cash to stay afloat) and are trying to get in while the stock is low. It happens alot during crashes which is why we see ups and downs before reality sets in. This is unique in that after 3 months things can really pick up where they left off because it was a medical crash... the economic crash may still be too far out (2021,2022) to coincide with it.
It kinda feels like they won the game and nobody explained it in a way for normal people to understand completely. Somewhere during Clinton or Bush. Way before Enron blew up Definitely during Clinton and his Greenspan boom. Everyone on both sides worshipped Alan and the Wall Street quants....
