Here is the chart you guys should be looking at - https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...s-us-countries-italy-iran-singapore-hong-kong We are on pace to look like Italy, about 12 days behind them on number of cases. Italy is completely locked down now. You can only go out for groceries, pharmacy or medical treatment. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/europe/coronavirus-italy-lockdown-intl/index.html. I feel like the **** will hit the fan worse here because we don't have the social safety nets of most other developed countries in the world. Millions of people and small businesses can not afford to lose 6, 8,10 weeks or more worth of income. I could go on, but the stock market will take another big hit when the virus takes off here in under two weeks. Buying down is a risky FOMO move right now. The smart play is a long term short position.
Any particular puts you still think are worth doing today? Agree on the overall neg trend, but I also don't dare buy shorts (no matter what the situation is, beyond my risk appetite) and puts have a lot of volatility and downside risk priced in atm. Stock prices can be surprisingly resilient with central bank intervention. E.g., China's lockdown and situation back in Jan/Feb was looking really dire and they quarantined 60mil people and shutdown factories in an economically important area; I kept waiting for an entry on YUMC that never came. After the initial 20% drop back in January, it didn't go down further and actually recovered 10% until the latest drops in US market. The US equivalent would be MCD, and it's also down around 20% already. E.g. 2, Tencent's (their FB-ish equivalent) price actually remained at pre-virus levels throughout the lockdown till the latest US market crash.
United is about to get a big bailout from the government. Anyone whos not buying at these prices is making a huge mistake.
Another stock I recommend you all to look at is BYD. They are the most well-positioned gambling company to take advantage of sports gambling. They have the largest foundation and best software out of all competitors and have the most license issued by states. High upside.
I work part time at United and we're getting a massive bailout. The ceo had a discussion with all the employees talking about they will be getting help. I don't support bailing anyone out because corporate America has been taking advantage of the low-interest loans to refinance their debt and undergo massive buybacks. I feel like United is close to bottoming out around the 35-40'ish range. I have friends at Spirit and there even getting a bailout.
Thanks for the insight. How big of a hit has business taken and how affected do you think it will it be for the next year? Bailout will help if it is priced like it's on the verge of collapse (don't think we're there yet), but it won't help with profitability. If biz is taking 50% hit for the next year maybe it's priced accurately.
Bro you have no idea how bad it is. All of our widebody jets that were flying to Asia and Europe grounded at the moment. We switched a few of our narrowbody planes to widebody gates and are flying them to Cancun at the moment. A 777 has roughly 290 seats and only 60-70 are occupied. We had a 757 coming in from LAX with only 19 passengers on board. Last week was "suppose" to be our busiest week of the year because of spring break but we had occupancy of only 41% on our trips. We're getting absolutely murdered. We're getting more info about the bailout in the upcoming days as we're crunching the numbers and are suppose to submit a request to the Treasury department by Tuesday. Its really really bad.
If I'm a total newbie and I want to dump some cash into the market, where do I start? Is now the time? I need to get more into it... Thanks in advance...
It’s usually a bad sign to the market when companies put out offerings. Well I should say that as far as quick returns or impatient/short sellers. Many companies do this to raise funds, Tonix (TNXP) did recently and their stock is a dumpster fire now, but I have a lot of shares in that well under a dollar and am just being patient. They have some good things going with fibromyalgia, PTSD and other various meds. Having said that, if their mgmt does the right things, those stocks that put out private investor offerings, at a low ball price, can really pay off in the med/long run. There’s a reason they can fill multi million dollar offerings in such a short time. Private Investors believe in them. Problem in the short term is, many public investors are in patient. I think your position in AYTU will def pay off, but be patient and don’t listen to shorties/bears trying to talk you out of it. I still hold some too even though I sold 2/3 for short profits. I did that because many of my longs have taken some big hits with this Covid-19, tariffs, etc. etc.
When my nephew was born in 1996 my bro-in-law bought Disney stock in his name. They would display the certificate at stuff like baby showers He was an investment banker then
The market is going to be very choppy for the foreseeable future. There is certainly a lot of downside risk still there...maybe another 20% (or more). I wouldn't dump it in at one time. I'd do my research and make good investments over the next 2-3 months. Either slowly move chunks into an S&P 500 ETF slowly over the next 12-16 weeks, or begin doing some reasearch. Go for companies with very strong balance sheets, a decent dividend, and a strong business. Its probably not a bad idea to buy FAANG stocks at a discount either. (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google). I like Disney, Apple, Google, and JP Morgan long term. Not to say they couldn't get killed in the short term, but if you are long term...not a bad time to invest. I also like BP since they have a killer dividend. If that dividend has to go away for a few quarters, it'll come back eventually and you'll be sucking in 10-12% a year cash from them.
I haven't followed the gambling sector as closely lately so not as up-to-date on the merger w/ Paddy, but I really liked TSG given valuation, strategy integrating w/ media, and assets. They own Fox Bet domestically, but the bulk of their revenue generation comes overseas - SkyBet/SkyGaming, PokerStars, BetStars in Australia.
Another stock that looks ridiculously cheap is Viacomb-CBS (VIAC). They're happy to license out content to streaming competitors rush as they outspend each other, but have a ton of media assets to launch a competitive streaming option if they ever choose to go that route in the future.
Agreed. I wouldn't blame people who are currently in a majority of cash, though I started buying on Thursday. My rough advice would be to slowly move from cash into companies w/ a cash cushion, low debt or ETF's as dips continue to happen and until we get closer to some sort of revolution. Not sure how much more of a severe beating the market can take - an economic disruption for the next month seems to be getting priced in. That said, many companies will certainly go BK during the containment.
This was kinda expected. It's what Trump has been b****ing about for a while. We'll see how much it helps the markets vs. coronavirus. I just hope the bad news doesn't keep pouring in. Also announced another QE program : https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/fed...-700-billion-quantitative-easing-program.html Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches massive $700 billion quantitative easing program
Stock futures "plummeted" : https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/tra...r-fed-cuts-rates-launches-easing-program.html Stock futures plummet — hit ‘limit down’ — even as Fed slashes rates; Dow futures off 1,000 points
