Am I on trial? Just my take. Lead up to Model 3 roll out. Gigafactory online started producing Tesla Energy products. Short interest at all time high, feeling the squeeze. Many factors, very similar setup to 2013 when Model S first came out.
Don't get me wrong, TSLA is risky, especially the next year or two before they reach scale. But if they do(I think they will), they will become one of the biggest companies out there. One of the best investments for the next 10+ years IMO.
There are definite dangers with holding a company like Tesla for 10+ years. I would make sure to continue studying its financial situation because the company has manipulated its financial statements in the past. I would also make sure that Tesla is able to keep its promises and expectations with some of the roll out of its projects, which it has also failed to do at times.
Which financial statements have they manipulated? That's a serious charge. They have been late on pretty much all their projects. Doesn't matter. As long as people still love the product and as long as they are still years ahead of the competition. Most important things to watch out for Tesla is 1. Demand, as long as revenue continues to grow 50% yoy profitability won't matter, there will always be investors to fund that kind of growth and patiently wait for future profits once they reach scale. 2. That Elon is still alive. The risks to Tesla are 1. The Model 3 final version sucks and no one wants it anymore. I highly highly doubt that will happen. 2. They run out of money before the reach scale and can't make the Model 3. They can't get additional funding due to a severe economic downturn that happens at the same time. This is the most realistic risk, but not existential imo. In that kind of environment they can still get funding, just on bad terms, which would negatively affect share price. But eventually it would recover. 3. That other automakers will catch up. I see no evidence of this, in fact the opposite. But even if this happens, they become the next BMW or Mercedes instead of the next Apple. Not the worst downside.
Every single stock I have bought for the last two years save perhaps two has gone down within an hour or two within the time I have bought it. The stock then will within the next 24 hours to 60 days will go back up and I will make a profit. It's weird and almost uncanny at this point. I sold everything today with a profit on all three. I'll buy one or two tomorrow, state here what they are and see what happens. Haha
Another thing most people don't realize is Tesla is an energy company. Many believe the energy side of the equation has a far larger upside than automotive and the share price doesn't reflect that. At some point the light bulb will go off. My bet is that happens no later than 2018.
I wouldn't call them a "energy company." They sell batteries -- "energy storage products." In Q3 2016, they sold $21m worth of their home and commercial batteries. It's pretty insignificant to their car sales. Plus, energy storage products have pretty major competition (maybe moreso than automotive), but is it as unique as their automotive products? Curious why they changed their wording of that line of products for "Energy Storage Products" (in their 2015 10k) to "Energy Products" (2016 Q3 10q). Are they finding they need to market that line differently to stockholders, since Storage Products and Batteries isn't as sexy.
What competition? As far as I know this is still a nascent market. So far it represents only 1% of their revenues, so definitely insignificant. But Musk believes they will one day rival its automotive business. Current sales are based on their 1.0 storage products, which in many cases are uneconomical outside of corner cases in states with high electricity rates. With their Gigafactory going online earlier this month, they are now mass producing their 2.0 energy products, which should be much more cost competitive. Unlike cars, where purchase decisions are often based on brand and animal spirits, storage is purely economics(and perhaps reliability). Perhaps they are integrating their Solarcity acquisition into their filings, where future solar sales would fall under this Energy Products column.
Not a shareholder of Telsa but it seemed to me their buyout of SolarCity was not only to save/bail it out but to create an "energy company". It would be a vertical company that would build cars, the battery storage to power the cars, and lease out (not sure on Solar City's business model) the solar panels needed to capture the energy stored by the battery. It's not an easy feat and from what I read Telsa shareholders were not too happy with buying out Solar City. If I were Telsa shareholder I would prefer to have it proven that it could successful mass manufacturer it's line before trying to be an "energy company".
I've read some here and there about the company. Overall though it's very volatile. Over the last 9 months I have repeatedly bought it when it has dipped and came out positive every time. I made another 3.+% today actually. It's currently going back down again and may purchase it again today. On a more sober note does anyone see the market crashing within 2-3 years with the current administration? I don't think it will happen soon unless something occurs negatively that's out of the economic realm.
I've been thinking of subscribing to the guys below. Anyone trade the VIX/XIV here? I've had similar thoughts as outlined in the link. http://www.vixstrategies.com/strategy/
People have been waiting on a crash for two years. Market is at all time highs yet retail investors are all on the sidelines. This is the most contrarian bull market I've ever seen. Yes we will see a crash eventually, but I doubt it will be because of Donald Trump, and it won't happen until retail traders are all in and CNBC is screaming for you to buy. Maybe that's in two years, maybe its in 10. Either way I highly doubt it is now.
So no one else getting on this TSLA train? I am waiting for a chance to go on margin and go all in, almost time for last call...
