Basically sideways since the JPY run up that can clearly be seen on the 4h. I could really see us retracing back down to 1985-75 area in the /es before a final blow off to the 2040 handle.
I was thinking just 2000 on spx, but I could see it lower. IWM is already lagging and busted through the low on the last high day of 115.86.
im looking for a drawdown on spx into the 1970-1985 range before the melt up back to 2041 to close the year. I went with the dec 118 TLT calls.
I took a nibble on some shorts in the after market. Let's see how she goes. I was expecting some pull back before this thing blew through 2020, but was definitely wrong on that account. This buying has been pretty relentless. I could see 2045 being the top range of this move. I'm probably going to have to bail on these shorts quickly, but it's small position.
got in pretty late. but it's been record high every day. let's see where it goes from here during the holiday season...
Looks like tlt bounced off the Fibonacci 61.8 yesterday. If we get a pullback at 2040 then TLT back to 121+
Even though they warned, the chart is very bearish; it could still crank down a little more. I would not be going long DDD unless you want to hold long term or dollar cost average in. The chart suggests to 30 or between 25-30. Here is all the options activity over 100 lot for today. Nothing really jumps out at me. Most trades were done at the bid. Only the 35.5 call trade was done at the ask. That vertical put spread break even is $35 on the feb 20, 2015. Time Symbol Option Qty Price Exchange Condition Market IV Underlying 09:36:42 DDD Nov07(W) 37 P 188 2.5 NASDAQ AutoExecution 2.50 x 2.66 192.94 34.61 09:56:29 DDD Jan15'16 55 C 160 1.4 CBOE Regular 1.40 x 2.07 42.9 34.22 09:57:18 DDD Jan17'15 48 C 100 0.13 GMNI AutoExecution 0.13 x 0.19 45.96 34.06 10:32:51 DDD Feb20'15 40 P 450 8 ARCA Spread 7.90 x 8.25 49.51 34.01 10:32:51 DDD Feb20'15 32 P 900 2.9 ARCA Spread 2.75 x 2.99 51.23 34.01 10:32:51 DDD Feb20'15 32 P 100 2.9 ARCA Spread 2.75 x 2.99 51.23 34.01 11:29:35 DDD Feb20'15 32 P 140 2.8 ISE Spread 2.66 x 2.98 50 34.28 11:29:35 DDD Feb20'15 32 P 140 2.81 ISE Spread 2.66 x 2.98 50.15 34.28 11:29:35 DDD Feb20'15 40 P 140 7.81 ISE Spread 7.50 x 8.05 47 34.28 11:29:35 DDD Feb20'15 32 P 280 2.84 PHLX Spread 2.66 x 2.98 50.55 34.28 11:29:35 DDD Feb20'15 40 P 140 7.88 PHLX Spread 7.50 x 8.05 48.13 34.28 11:45:32 DDD Nov14(W) 42.5 C 100 0.06 CBOE Regular 0.04 x 0.06 83.64 34.36 12:11:47 DDD Nov22 33.5 P 133 1.33 PHLX AutoExecution 1.32 x 1.33 63.03 34.35 12:17:47 DDD May15'15 30 P 180 3.1 NASDAQ AutoExecution 3.10 x 3.25 50.66 34.48 14:04:56 DDD Nov14(W) 35.5 C 500 0.99 CBOE PriceVariation 0.92 x 0.99 73.89 34.49 15:46:11 DDD Nov14(W) 38 C 100 0.31 NASDAQ AutoExecution 0.31 x 0.32 72.89 34.37 15:46:43 DDD Nov22 30 P 100 0.47 CBOE Regular 0.42 x 0.47 74.93 34.36 15:55:32 DDD Nov22 38 C 100 0.52 GMNI AutoExecution 0.52 x 0.54 63.46 34.5
DDD looks bearish as heck. I think we could easily see this 20% lower in the next two weeks or sooner.
This is what I like to follow.. "What seems too high and risky to the majority generally goes higher and what seems low and cheap generally goes lower." William O.Neill, vounder of investor's Daily
Was bored this afternoon so ran some stock screens. Came across SIRI for a technical swing trade. Any opinions on this?
Check out GOGO. It's in a trading range of $14.50 to $19 or so. It reports Monday before the market. It has 30% of the float shorted. I think if it has favorable earnings it will just go back to $19. I will look to make a trade on this after it reports. Other than that I will be reading the report on DDD.. And waiting for the spx to crack in any way.
