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Stimulus Debate in the time of Corona

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by justtxyank, Mar 17, 2020.

  1. Haymitch

    Haymitch Custom Title
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    Nice. Might get that standby generator after all! This upcoming hurricane season looks to be a doozy, and that + corona might make for some historically bad times.
     
  2. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    Graham may realize that even if we get a Pyrrhic victory over COVID19 in a few months, the danger of a fall relapse is insanely huge.

    Of course, given his general subservient fealty to his lord and master DJT, he will probably abandon this in a few days and lobbying for everything to open up. Remember, he used to say that illegally extorting allies to engage in a political conspiracy against an american citizen was a bad thing...for about a week.
     
  3. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    You have to imagine these measures are temporary...

    and you might disagree, but right now we do need to discourage work .... or at least work that is non-essential.

    I dont like going through unemployment , would much rather they just cut checks
     
  4. Andre0087

    Andre0087 Member

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    Going thru unemployment is the only way to pay people who were actually working.
     
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  5. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    Maybe

    it’s gonna depend on the individual and the company that person was working for to determine how bad a spot they are in now .

    I just don’t like that this is trying to go through a govt beauracracy.

    you get better accuracy in helping the people that deserve it the most I guess .... but people that were working are more likely to be able to continue working from home or have some savings to lean on .

    nothing about this situation is fair and doesn’t suck .

    you’ve gotta help those that weren’t working or were gig or contract workers . Apparently there is something in the bill to help , but details aren’t clear yet
     
  6. Major

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    They are for 4 months. Which means if my business is ready to open again in 2 months, people are incentivized not to come back. It's dumb. To their credit, a few Senators noticed that and requested a simple, logical change - you can't make more from UI than you made from your job. And now Bernie Sanders is being a f-ing idiot and threatening to hold up the bill if that fix is made.
     
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  7. Andre0087

    Andre0087 Member

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    Don't you have to be constantly looking for work while drawing unemployment insurance? If a job asks you to come back you don't, I'd have to assume they could report you and you'd lose those benefits anyways.
     
  8. Major

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    No - they waived that requirement because, for the short term, they don't want people looking for work.
     
  9. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking
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    [Premium Post]
    ... and now the Panic Peddler is walking back his irresponsible predictions of 200,000 USA deaths and is falling back to a Fall relapse... We need to really check how the media and individuals hype things up to Biblical proportions time and again... I feel for the nail salon owner in Tulsa, Oklahoma who has to close down because hair-on-fit nitwits in population centers are overreacting with their insane forecasts.

    GOOD DAY
     
  10. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    Whatever, Idk what sanders does. Both sides are playing politics, and there are maybe a few legislators trying to actually help people / have an honest debate.

    If your business is ready to open up in 2 months then maybe you can find other ways to incentivize people .... perhaps some will come to work and risk getting caught by the IRS ... its a good bet that no one is gonna bother trying to find out if youre wokring some hours on the side and getting unemployment for a month. Some people will want to come work for you given that the benefit ends in 2 months and going back to work early is how they make sure they hae a job in the future. Maybe you pay people under the table .... i dont know .

    My problem isnt that people are getting paid not to work right now .... its that we are trying to put tons of people on a govt program and we assume that its going to be run effciently and effectively and that its not going to become some boondoggle that people are suddenly reliant on. We dont have the heart to kick people OFF of government programs once they are on them ... even if ( like you said ) the incentives are bad .

    Furthermore I believe we only have 1 shot at this for the next month ... the government is anything but fast . Especially with questionable leadership IMO.
     
  11. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    This is being run through state unemployment programs. People get UE benefits cut off routinely. This is a normal thing. The infrastructure to distribute money already exists. This is the federal government providing additional cash so that state UE programs have enough to distribute (using new formulas that allow for higher than normal UE payouts).

    I understand the cynicism about government but this isn't a "new program." This is an existing program that is being temporarily modified. And we've done this stuff before. In 2008, the stimulus bill did similar things. In 2008, we also temporarily modified UE benefits (not to this scale but UE was extended and slightly increased). Also in 2008, social security payouts were modified and SNAP benefits were expanded. All of those changes were temporary and reverted back.
     
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  12. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    Hey dipshits, paying people not to work is kind of the ****ing point.

    Also If maybe you hadn't blocked raises to the minimum wage for decades maybe this wouldn't be as much of an issue,
     
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  13. Major

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    I agree with this - that's why it's important to get it right. The fix is literally adding one sentence to the bill. It shouldn't be that difficult or controversial.

    As I understand how it's currently written, someone making $10/hr right now would get $20/hr on unemployment. It's absurd.
     
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  14. Major

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    Not for 4 months, it isn't. It's to help them survive while there is no work - not to pay them MORE not to work when jobs are available.
     
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  15. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    We aren't going back to normal in 4 months. There will not be a job available, and if there is, there's still going to be a lot of areas where shelter in place is the best option.

    Hard to deal with that reality, but the public health situation is such an abject failure I don't see how it's otherwise. Best case is we achieve massively awesome testing....and then deal with sporadic outbreaks and roving shutdowns.
     
  16. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    Is it as absurd as considering $10 an hour a living wage? Let's get real, if you're making that much money you're probably having to get free school lunches and WIC and other stuff anyway.
     
  17. Major

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    Maybe, maybe not. No one has any idea when we're reopening society. China wasn't closed for 4 months. South Korea and Japan weren't closed at all. But if that's the only concern, then just put "UI can pay no more than your wages" into the bill. All problems are solved. There's absolutely no emergency reason to pay people 200% of their wages for 4 months when their expenses are lower than normal.

    That's a different issue. This isn't a bill to fix long term policies or anything like that. It's an emergency bill to keep people from going under in the short-term.
     
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  18. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    Not a different issue, it's the exact same issue. People need money to live on. I don't get this bullshit like "you can't fix policy mistakes in an emergency" - of course you can, it's the best possible time. The original minimum wage was the outcome of an economic emergency in 1938.
     
  19. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    How much is the ultimate cost of this bill ? I know a lot of it is in the form of loans , but loans that are forgiven correct ?

    2 trillion is what i've heard ..

    For that same cost you could give every American over 18 10 k ... or every single american a 6k check .

    Instead we try to preserve the system we have in place instead of letting good business adapt or have treated its consumers well enough in the past to still be trusted when this is over.

    "business" not getting any help isnt without its own set of flaws. Fixed costs exist and if payments are interrupted thats trouble. There are issues with inventory and supply chain. No doubt the flow of the economy is interrupted.... i mean those that can still do "business" online are in great shape. But , even small business owners that are suffering might be OK with everyone getting a stimulus like this. For one , it gives their customers way more cash for future periods and thus they can project sustained success if they continue to provide a good product.

    In places with super high cost of living this might not completely solve things , but then you try to find more local solutions.

    In alot of places this would go very far. It could even promote new growth. This threat is not indefinite ... its only indefinite if our healthcare sector doesnt adapt.

    The private market is going to adapt to this in ways we cannot predict. We dont even know the scale yet.

    The best way to position everyone to respond is to give everyone assets to try to hunker down. When we make better progress on identifying the scale and treating the health aspect ... THEN people can have a clearer picture of how to best ride it out and prepare for the future. This is a collective survival game. Its beneficial for more people to have better information and we can come to a societal norm on how to move forward. To me , that would be buying everyone time and putting a little extra security in their hands.

    Now some of the $ i think was funding for the hospitals .... so maybe take 1k away from everyone. Still , youre talking about a big ass stimulus to the people.

    Oh and i would basically tell rent seekers to suck it up for a month or two and do something to drastically reduce and forgive fixed costs during that timeframe. Some things have already been halted I think, like student loan payments ( or maybe intrest) . But i would go a step further and look at rent , maybe intrest payments in other markets too. You cant force the economy to grind to a halt and not hold rent seekers to the same standard.

    Weve been pushing the gas pedal down hard for so long , I'm sure there has been irresponsible lending. When you response is always to take it up a notch ( just spend more, bailout , unlimited liquidity ! , loan forgiveness) you're encouraging irresponsibility. Just put the spending power in the households hands and let good business thrive.

    I'll still fly southwest. The lining up thing is a bit weird , but i mean the prices are usually cheap, they usually are on-time , you have the potential of getting a great seat , good in-flight service. Tho the posters on the extender-walk to the plane thingy are a bit weird .... like their eyes are really bright . too bright.

    Matress mack is once again trying to do good things for the community.

    Like good business will thrive when all is said and done . Gig workers with strong relationships might still have clients and be working ... I know a few. We will see how the lockdown is enforced. The problem once again is the people that employ those workers are increasingly going into "hoard" mode. Everyone's first priority is to look after themselves and their family.

    Wont happen tho ... bummer
     
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  20. Major

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    So how does this work? Everyone making $10/hr right now suddenly makes $20/hr + $1200 stimulus checks for doing nothing for 4 months. We're shut down for 4 months, so small business owners are making nothing, and possibly racking up debt on rent/etc.

    What happens then? People suddenly jump at the opportunity to work again for $10/hr? Businesses already on the brink of extinction have to double their wages?

    Just think of the extreme stupidity of this policy. Not even Bernie Sanders has ever suggested raising the minimum wage to $20 overnight. And that's what's you'd do for millions of people, only to pull it back in 4 months. And what about people at CVS and such who are in "essential jobs"? They are making $12-$15 for working and putting themselves at risk, while their friends who worked at movie theaters or whatever are making $20 to stay home? Everyone of them is going to want to find a way to get laid off.

    Government policy should never encourage stupid behavior or encourage a dysfunctional economy and this is exactly what this does. And its easily fixed with one sentence. Dems didn't intend this. There's no reason not to fix it.
     
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